Abstract

First Hawaiian will report fourth-quarter results on January 30, 2026, Pre-Market; this preview compiles the latest quarterly estimates for revenue, profitability, and EPS alongside recent institutional viewpoints to frame the setup into the print.

Market Forecast

Consensus and company-level models indicate that First Hawaiian’s current quarter revenue is projected at $225.43 million, with an estimated adjusted EPS of $0.55 and EBIT of $91.83 million; forecast year-over-year growth rates are 16.46% for revenue and 38.20% for EPS. Net profit and margin are expected to benefit from stabilized funding costs and steady loan yields; explicit gross profit margin guidance is unavailable, and the modeled net profitability implies continued solid net profit margin trends relative to recent quarters. The main business is expected to show steady performance with retail banking remaining the core earnings base, while commercial banking provides incremental upside as credit costs normalize. The most promising segment appears to be retail banking, with recurring revenue power underpinned by deposit stability and card/fees resilience; last quarter the segment delivered $160.30 million, and the current run-rate implies mid-teens year-over-year growth.

Last Quarter Review

First Hawaiian’s last reported quarter delivered revenue of $226.39 million, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of $73.84 million, a net profit margin of 33.28%, and adjusted EPS of $0.59; revenue grew 19.57% year over year and adjusted EPS increased 22.92% year over year. A notable highlight was the EBIT outperformance at $100.65 million versus an estimate of $90.39 million, reflecting disciplined expense control and stable asset quality. By business line, retail banking generated $160.30 million and commercial banking $65.33 million, with treasury and other at $0.76 million; retail banking remained the anchor for topline momentum on a year-over-year basis.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Main Banking Franchise

The core franchise, centered on retail banking, should continue to drive the earnings profile this quarter as deposit costs show signs of plateauing and funding mix remains favorable. The company’s guidance proxies and model inputs suggest revenue of $225.43 million and adjusted EPS of $0.55, a combination consistent with modest quarter-on-quarter normalization from a strong prior print. Fee income from cards, service charges, and wealth-adjacent activities tends to be seasonally resilient in the fourth quarter, helping offset any mild softness in mortgage or rate-sensitive fee lines. Loan growth pacing has slowed across U.S. regional banks, but balances are likely steady to slightly up, supporting net interest income alongside disciplined liability management. Operating expenses remain a swing factor, yet the prior quarter’s expense discipline and the absence of outsized credit costs provide room for a solid EBIT margin, modeled at $91.83 million.

Retail Banking Momentum

Retail banking remains the most promising source of earnings stability and growth due to a broad and sticky consumer deposit base and recurring fee streams. Last quarter’s $160.30 million in retail revenue provides a healthy base; even if loan originations are mixed, deposit repricing pressure looks more contained than in earlier rate-hike phases. The bank’s pricing actions and product mix should support net interest income resiliency, while cross-sell into cards and everyday banking services adds fee ballast. On credit, consumer delinquencies bear monitoring, but the current loss content embedded in portfolios appears manageable relative to earnings capacity, supporting a constructive risk-adjusted return outlook.

Commercial Banking and Credit Quality

Commercial banking should contribute a stable to slightly improving revenue trend on the back of steady utilization and selective new commitments, tempered by continued underwriting discipline. Line utilization for middle-market and small business clients has been slower to accelerate than in past cycles, but a modest uptick into year-end would aid fee and interest income. Credit quality remains a focal point; watchlists and nonaccrual migration are central to the quarter’s narrative. Even with conservative reserving, the earnings model assumes no outsized provisioning need, maintaining a favorable pre-provision operating profit trajectory. If criticized assets hold near recent levels, the revenue-to-provision gap should continue to support EPS near the $0.55 estimate.

Net Interest Income and Margin Dynamics

Funding costs are showing signs of stabilization, which, combined with mixed but stable loan yields, should sustain net interest income near recent levels. The net profit margin last quarter at 33.28% underscores efficiency in turning revenue into bottom-line results; while not a direct proxy for net interest margin, it indicates that operating leverage remains present. This quarter, small changes in deposit beta and asset yield trends will likely drive incremental upside or downside versus the EPS consensus. A marginally favorable rate environment, including the prospect of a slower pace of rate cuts than previously feared, could provide modest tailwinds to deposit pricing pressure, sustaining spreads and supporting modeled profitability.

Noninterest Revenue and Operating Efficiency

Noninterest revenue from service charges, card fees, and wealth-related activities should remain a consistent contributor, helping reduce earnings volatility tied to net interest income. Operating expense control was a key factor in the prior quarter’s EBIT beat; management’s prioritization of process efficiency and prudent hiring supports the case for maintaining an attractive efficiency ratio. If operating leverage persists—revenue growth outpacing expense growth—the bank can protect EPS even in a flat volume environment. The quarter’s outcome may therefore hinge on the interplay between fee resilience and disciplined expense management, with both expected to remain supportive.

Capital, Liquidity, and Shareholder Returns

Capital ratios across peer regionals have generally trended stable, and First Hawaiian’s internal capital generation, supported by $0.59 adjusted EPS last quarter, implies continued balance sheet strength. A healthy liquidity profile and stable core deposits are advantageous for funding consistency, helping limit reliance on wholesale channels. While payout actions are subject to board decisions, sustainable earnings power and conservative risk management underpin capacity for ongoing shareholder returns in line with historical practices. Balance sheet resilience reduces tail risk and allows management to focus on selective growth and customer acquisition in core markets.

Key Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

The stock’s near-term reaction will likely hinge on any variance in net interest income relative to the model, the trajectory of deposit costs, and updates on asset quality metrics such as nonaccruals and criticized loans. Guidance on loan growth and fee revenue cadence can recalibrate forward estimates; a stable outlook with maintained efficiency gains would support the constructive tone embedded in current forecasts. Any surprise in provisioning—either higher due to idiosyncratic credit or lower thanks to favorable migration—will directly affect EPS versus the $0.55 benchmark. Commentary on deposit competition within the local market and customer activity trends will be closely parsed for 2026 run-rate implications.

Analyst Opinions

Recent institutional commentary tilts constructive, with a majority leaning bullish on the near-term earnings trajectory driven by stabilizing funding costs and consistent noninterest revenue. Analysts have pointed to the prior quarter’s EBIT beat and solid adjusted EPS delivery as evidence of durable operating leverage, arguing that consensus for $0.55 EPS is attainable if credit costs remain contained. Several well-followed research desks emphasize deposit stability and the balance between consumer and commercial exposure as favorable characteristics in a choppy macro environment, while acknowledging typical regional-bank sensitivities to rate path and credit cycles. The dominant view expects a largely in-line to modestly better print, contingent on steady net interest income and disciplined expenses, framing risk-reward as skewed toward incremental estimate support if asset quality trends remain benign.