Huafu Securities released a research report indicating that large-scale enterprises increased their slaughter plans month-on-month in August, with prices facing downward pressure after the resumption of slaughter rhythm. As of September 5, the national average pig price was 13.79 yuan/kg, up 0.17 yuan/kg week-on-week. The third-party breeding sow data showed narrowing growth or turning negative in August, suggesting that policy capacity control effects may gradually emerge. In the short term, September sample enterprises from Steel Union/Zhuochuang/Yongyi are expected to increase slaughter by +1.29%/+4.11%/+3.92% month-on-month respectively, increasing supply pressure. As school stockpiling ends, pig prices may continue facing pressure, with attention on Mid-Autumn and National Day stockpiling boost in late September.

**Pig Breeding: Prices Rise Then Fall, Focus on Late-Month Demand**

Pig prices showed a pattern of initial gains followed by declines this week. Early in the week, student school reopening concentrated stockpiling boosted catering and cafeteria purchasing demand, while breeding-side slaughter rhythm tightened periodically, jointly supporting pig price rebounds. However, large-scale enterprises increased slaughter plans month-on-month this month, and prices came under pressure after slaughter rhythm resumed. As of September 5, the national average pig price was 13.79 yuan/kg, up 0.17 yuan/kg week-on-week.

Slaughterhouse volumes rose significantly this week. Accompanying school reopening stockpiling, slaughterhouse volumes increased rapidly this week. Sample slaughterhouses' daily average slaughter volume was 149,100 heads, up 5.30% week-on-week. Regarding frozen products, slaughterhouses' frozen product sales pace was sluggish, causing some products to still require passive warehousing, with frozen product inventory rates continuing to increase slightly. As of the week of September 4, industry frozen product inventory rate was 17.49%, up 0.11 percentage points week-on-week.

Average slaughter weight increased slightly this week. As temperatures dropped, breeding-side large pig overall slaughter enthusiasm remained strong, driving slight increases in average slaughter weight. As of the week of September 4, average pig slaughter weight was 128.23kg (up 0.40kg week-on-week), with group farm average weight at 123.61kg (up 0.09kg week-on-week) and individual farmer average weight at 143.75kg (up 0.49kg week-on-week).

In the short term, September Steel Union/Zhuochuang/Yongyi sample enterprises are expected to increase slaughter by +1.29%/+4.11%/+3.92% month-on-month respectively, increasing supply pressure. As school stockpiling ends, pig prices may continue facing pressure, with attention on Mid-Autumn and National Day stockpiling boost in late September.

Long-term perspective: On July 23, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a symposium on promoting high-quality development of the pig industry, emphasizing "strict implementation of capacity control measures," including reasonable culling of breeding sows, appropriate reduction of breeding sow inventory, reducing secondary fattening, controlling fat pig slaughter weight, strictly controlling new capacity additions, and severely investigating illegal slaughter and quarantine behaviors. Recent policies have repeatedly emphasized capacity control, which is expected to accelerate industry inefficient capacity clearance, promote long-term pig price center upward movement, with low-cost quality pig enterprises gaining excess returns.

August third-party breeding sow data has been released. August Zhuochuang, Steel Union, and Yongyi breeding sow figures were -1.11%, -0.80%, and +0.07% month-on-month respectively, compared to last month's -1.36%, 0.00%, and +0.52%. August third-party breeding sow month-on-month growth narrowed/turned negative, suggesting policy capacity control effects may gradually emerge.

Recommended focus: Muyuan Co., Ltd. (002714.SZ), DEKON AGR (02419), Wens Foodstuff Group Co., Ltd. (300498.SZ), Justar Agricultural Husbandry Co., Ltd. (603477.SH), Shennong Group Co., Ltd. (605296.SH), among others.

**Poultry Sector**

**White Broiler:** Prices retreat from highs. Under high inventory of processed products, broiler prices declined slightly. Breeding-side resistance to high-priced chicks strengthened, with increased chick price negotiations and some price declines. As of August 29, industry white broiler price was 7.33 yuan/kg, unchanged week-on-week; industry broiler chick price was 3.61 yuan/feather, up 0.03 yuan/feather week-on-week; chicken product price was 8.70 yuan/kg, down 0.05 yuan/kg week-on-week.

Looking ahead, current overseas avian influenza outbreaks continue spreading. While French breeding stock imports have reopened, US and New Zealand breeding stock imports remain suspended. White broiler upstream capacity may further contract, with attention on the persistence of breeding stock import restrictions. Recommended focus: Yisheng Biopharma (002458.SZ), Sunner Development Co., Ltd. (002299.SZ), Hefeng Co., Ltd. (603609.SH), among others.

**Layer Chicken:** School reopening and Ghost Festival stockpiling, egg prices slightly rebounded. September 1-5 average egg price was 6.53 yuan/kg, up 0.02 yuan/kg week-on-week. September 5 layer chick price was 3.00 yuan/feather, unchanged week-on-week. Current overseas avian influenza outbreaks continue spreading, increasing US breeding stock import difficulties. Quality chick supply gaps may persist, with high chick price prosperity expected to continue. Recommended focus: Xiaoming Co., Ltd. (300967.SZ).

**Agricultural Products:** This week soybean meal futures and spot traded within ranges. On the futures side, affected by China-US trade tariff policies, imported soybean purchases continue focusing on South America. This week Brazilian soybean CNF premiums strengthened again, pushing up import costs and supporting distant month contracts. September 5 soybean meal 2601 contract closed at 3,067 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton week-on-week. On the spot side, oil plants intensified delivery urgency under high inventory, with short-term soybean meal spot prices continuing to oscillate. September 5 soybean meal spot price was 3,084 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton week-on-week. Monitor US soybean weather conditions, China-US trade policy changes, September USDA supply-demand report, etc. Recommended focus: Soybean Meal ETF.

**Risk Warning:** Animal disease outbreaks, commodity price volatility, natural disasters, and other risks.