According to Woofun AI, the Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) market is displaying a notable structural divergence: whales are accelerating accumulation while retail investors remain on the sidelines, a pattern of on-chain divergence that has historically served as an important precursor to market reversals.
On-chain analytics firm Santiment noted in a report released on Tuesday that wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC have accumulated another 41,025 BTC over the past 10 days. Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that these wallets now control 13.64 million BTC, equivalent to 67.93% of Bitcoin's total supply, with their holdings having climbed back to their highest level since the mid-August rally.
Santiment pointed out that, based on historical data, when these large holders begin accumulating Bitcoin, Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market tend to perform better, while sustained selling often brings greater price pressure. In contrast to the whales, retail investors—those wallets holding less than 0.01 BTC—have shown almost no activity and have not followed Bitcoin's recent price movements. Santiment believes that if retail investors continue to sell while whales keep accumulating, this situation could further benefit the market, as retail stop-loss behavior has historically often signaled better buying opportunities. However, the current divergence does not necessarily predict a specific price trajectory.
Prominent analyst Kevin Capital believes that Bitcoin's recent technical breakout further confirms that its cycle low has already occurred. Bitcoin has broken through several important technical barriers, including the 50-week moving average, the 200-day exponential moving average and simple moving average, as well as the higher price levels that had been sustaining the market's "lower high range" pattern.
In a podcast released on Tuesday, Kevin estimated the probability that Bitcoin has already bottomed at approximately 90%, while expressing his view that future pullbacks will bring increasingly higher new lows. In the short term, he favors a price range between $77,000 and $83,000. Kevin stated that USDT's share of Bitcoin trading is testing the key support level of 6%. If this support level is broken, it could drive Bitcoin's price up again toward $100,000; while a price rebound could signal an earlier pullback. He also noted that from a longer-term perspective, Bitcoin's price action is more likely to show increasingly higher new lows rather than a new cycle low.