Title

Earning Preview: Idacorp Q4 revenue is expected to increase by 32.21%, and institutional views are mostly bullish

Abstract

Idacorp will report its fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 19, 2026 Pre-Market; this preview summarizes last quarter’s performance, details consensus expectations for revenue, margins, net income and adjusted EPS with year-over-year context, and consolidates the majority analyst view heading into the print.

Market Forecast

Based on the latest projections for the current quarter, Idacorp’s revenue is estimated at $533.06 million, implying year-over-year growth of 32.21%. Forecast EBIT is $86.44 million, up 80.28% year over year, and projected adjusted EPS is 0.731, up 16.76% year over year; no explicit company guidance on gross profit margin or net profit margin for the quarter is available, so margin implications are inferred from the higher EBIT growth relative to revenue growth.

The main business is expected to carry the quarter, with top-line expansion outpacing the prior year and operating profit growth indicating improving flow-through; investors will focus on whether cost normalization and operating efficiency can sustain the implied margin uplift. The most promising revenue contributor remains the primary operating stream, which generated $523.55 million last quarter and represented 99.83% of revenue; year-over-year decomposition for this line was not disclosed, but the forecasted pattern (revenue up 32.21%, EBIT up 80.28%) points to a constructive trajectory within the same core franchise.

Last Quarter Review

Idacorp’s previous quarter delivered revenue of $524.42 million (down 0.78% year over year), a gross profit margin of 41.73%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $124.00 million, a net profit margin of 23.73%, and adjusted EPS of 2.26 (up 6.60% year over year).

A key headline was the divergence between top-line and bottom-line prints versus expectations: revenue undershot the prior estimate by $136.94 million, while EPS of 2.26 was essentially in line with consensus, indicating that cost and mix effects offset part of the revenue miss to preserve per-share earnings. Within the revenue structure, the primary operating stream contributed $523.55 million, or 99.83% of the quarter’s total, underscoring a concentrated business base; year-over-year growth by line was not provided, but the overall revenue decline of 0.78% indicates modest top-line pressure relative to the same quarter last year.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main business

The centerpiece of this quarter’s setup is the core operating stream that delivers nearly all of Idacorp’s revenue. The forecast profile—$533.06 million in revenue, up 32.21% year over year, and $86.44 million in EBIT, up 80.28%—signals that management and the market anticipate a meaningfully better revenue environment against last year’s comparable period and a disproportionately larger improvement at the operating line. The gap between revenue growth and EBIT growth implies higher operating leverage and better cost absorption, or a shift in product or service mix that lifts contribution margins. Without explicit company guidance on gross or net margin, EBIT growth outpacing revenue growth becomes the key quantitative indicator suggesting margin expansion.

Sequentially, the quarter’s EPS estimate of 0.731 is below the prior quarter’s 2.26, which points to a more moderate per-share earnings cadence within the year. That sequential pattern can reflect normal intra-year seasonality of demand, the timing of operating expenses, and the distribution of non-operating items such as interest expense and taxes. Against that intra-year backdrop, the positive year-over-year metrics for revenue (+32.21%) and EPS (+16.76%) set a constructive annual comparison, and the magnitude of the projected EBIT growth underscores potential for operating discipline and scale efficiencies to translate into improved profitability metrics in the main business line.

Execution in this core stream will be judged on a few observable datapoints. First, the alignment between the revenue estimate and the realized top line, given the prior quarter’s shortfall versus estimates, will be closely watched; delivery in line with the $533.06 million projection would help validate the demand and pricing assumptions that underpin the operating leverage story. Second, the relation between the reported operating profit and the $86.44 million forecast will show whether cost controls are tracking as implied by the forecasted EBIT surge. Third, the conversion from operating profit to adjusted EPS—filtered through depreciation, interest, and effective tax rate—will be critical to sustain the 16.76% projected year-over-year EPS growth, even if intra-year sequential EPS is lower.

Most promising business

With the primary operating stream accounting for 99.83% of last quarter’s revenue ($523.55 million), the most promising path for incremental growth this quarter still lies within the same core franchise. The logic is straightforward: incremental improvements in pricing, unit volumes, or efficiency within the dominant revenue stream have an outsized effect on consolidated results because of the scale of the base. The forecasted 80.28% year-over-year increase in EBIT against a 32.21% top-line increase suggests that even modest enhancements in unit economics could produce a pronounced uplift in profitability, making the main revenue line both the current workhorse and the near-term upside lever.

Given the limited contribution of the residual “other” category ($0.87 million last quarter, 0.17% of revenue), the route to near-term outperformance is unlikely to depend on smaller, adjacent revenue streams. Instead, incremental margin capture within the principal line of business can serve as the catalyst for EPS delivery relative to the 0.731 estimate. Because the company has not provided explicit margin guidance, the implied story is one of operational throughput and cost discipline. If actuals corroborate an expansion in operating margin, the market may reward the stock with greater confidence in forward run-rate earnings, even if absolute margins are not directly guided.

A concentration of revenue can increase sensitivity to any single-quarter fluctuations in the main line, so the composition behind the 32.21% growth will matter. If growth skews toward sustainable drivers—in other words, improvements in the quality of revenue that carry favorable flow-through to EBIT—then the elevated 80.28% EBIT growth becomes more repeatable. Conversely, if the outperformance hinges on non-recurring items, the durability of the growth trajectory could be challenged in subsequent quarters. In the absence of line-by-line year-over-year decompositions, the gap between revenue growth and EBIT growth will be a practical proxy for assessing the quality of this quarter’s expansion in the most promising (and largest) business component.

Key stock-price swing factors this quarter

Margin conversion versus consensus stands out as the pivotal swing factor, because the forecasted pattern implies that operating profitability should grow far faster than revenue. If actual operating profits align with or exceed the $86.44 million estimate, investors will likely conclude that cost control and operational efficiency are on track, validating the notion of an improving margin framework. However, if operating profit under-delivers relative to the expected revenue uplift, that would suggest cost friction or a less favorable mix, calling into question the sustainability of the implied margin trajectory and potentially compressing the near-term earnings multiple.

The second notable factor is the relationship between top-line delivery and prior-quarter estimate variance. Last quarter’s material revenue undershoot versus estimates (a shortfall of $136.94 million) raises the bar for this quarter’s execution. Meeting or exceeding the $533.06 million revenue estimate would help rebuild credibility around forecasting and drive confidence that the year-over-year growth narrative is intact. Conversely, a second consecutive shortfall would pivot investor attention to whether the drivers of the revenue gap are transient or structural, even if EPS remains close to estimates due to non-operating offsets.

Capital allocation signals also have near-term influence. Idacorp maintained its quarterly dividend at $0.88 per share for payment on March 2, 2026, indicating continuity in payout policy and offering support to the total return profile. That stability matters as the market evaluates the projected EPS of 0.731 for the quarter in the context of forward payout capacity. If the company pairs steady dividends with evidence of accelerating year-over-year operating earnings growth, the quality and visibility of future cash generation will be viewed more favorably, which can bolster sentiment around the shares independent of short-term volatility.

Analyst Opinions

Among the timely opinions identified since January 2026, the balance of views is tilted positive. Using the collected ratings items as a proxy for stance, the ratio of bullish to bearish views is 2:1 in favor of the bullish side. One large sell-side house initiated on Idacorp with an Overweight rating and a $144.00 price target in mid-January 2026, highlighting scope for upside from current levels on improving fundamentals and clearer earnings visibility. Complementing that, aggregated analyst data this month characterized Idacorp’s average rating as Overweight with a mean price target near $140.00, which implies a constructive skew in expectations around the company’s execution and earnings prospects.

The majority camp’s case centers on three observations. First, model assumptions anticipate a healthy year-over-year revenue expansion of 32.21% in the quarter being reported, which, if realized, would frame the company’s forward demand and pricing profile in a stronger light than the prior-year comparable. Second, the expected 80.28% year-over-year increase in EBIT indicates that the Street is underwriting tangible operating leverage and cost efficiency, a combination that elevates earnings quality. Third, even with a sequentially lower EPS estimate (0.731 vs. 2.26 last quarter), analysts judge the annualized EPS improvement of 16.76% as an important sign that profit growth is broadening out on a year-over-year basis rather than narrowly relying on one-time items.

That majority view also acknowledges last quarter’s revenue estimate miss but interprets the near-term setup as a potential inflection, with the current $533.06 million revenue estimate and $86.44 million EBIT estimate reflecting recalibrated inputs. The emphasis from the bullish side is less on chasing absolute margin targets and more on verifying direction of travel—namely, that operating profit growth maintains a premium to revenue growth. If the company reports in a manner consistent with these expectations, the positive stance argues for multiple support as the market gains confidence in the improved earnings trajectory.

From a valuation perspective, the bullish cohort cites the combination of dividend continuity and improving year-over-year earnings as supportive for the shares. The maintained $0.88 quarterly dividend announced in January 2026 underpins a measure of yield support, while the forecasted EPS uplift and implied margin progress offer potential for upside to forward estimates if the operating execution continues to firm. This blend of income stability and earnings momentum is the foundation for the Overweight ratings and targets cited in January 2026, such as the $144.00 objective.

In summary, the majority analyst interpretation ahead of February 19, 2026 is that Idacorp’s quarter is set up for favorable year-over-year comparisons on revenue, operating profit, and adjusted EPS. The monitoring items are straightforward: delivery near the $533.06 million revenue estimate, evidence that operating costs are tracking to yield an EBIT print near $86.44 million, and confirmation that adjusted EPS holds to the 0.731 trajectory. If these checkpoints are met or exceeded, the majority argues the investment case will be reinforced by a clearer margin narrative and steadier forecasting profile, and by extension, a more confident outlook into subsequent quarters.