Abstract

Artisan Partners Asset Management will report fiscal second-quarter 2026 results on July 28, 2026 Post-Mkt; the market expects revenue of 298.62 million US dollars and adjusted EPS of 0.90, with investors watching average AUM levels, fee mix, and any performance-fee contribution for directional surprises.

Market Forecast

Consensus for fiscal Q2 2026 points to revenue of 298.62 million US dollars, up 5.54% year over year, adjusted EPS of 0.90, up 11.46% year over year, and EBIT of 98.47 million US dollars, up 8.69% year over year. The company did not issue explicit revenue or EPS guidance in its prior quarterly release, so current expectations reflect market estimates informed by the latest AUM updates and recent expense trends, while margin forecasts are not formally provided.

Management fees remain the core revenue engine and should track average AUM in the quarter; last quarter, management-fee revenue was 302.81 million US dollars and represented 99.93% of total sales, and near-term movements will be most sensitive to the June-quarter average AUM range implied by the April–June prints. Performance fees represent the most promising upside lever despite being variable: they totaled 29.10 million US dollars in fiscal 2025, up 97% year over year, although their contribution in fiscal Q1 2026 was limited at 0.20 million US dollars and remains contingent on strategy-level outcomes.

Last Quarter Review

For fiscal Q1 2026 (quarter ended March 31, 2026), Artisan Partners Asset Management delivered revenue of 303.00 million US dollars (+9.35% year over year), a gross profit margin of 44.32%, GAAP net income attributable to shareholders of 58.04 million US dollars (net margin 19.15% and down 5.07% year over year), and adjusted EPS of 0.87 (+4.82% year over year). Operating performance stayed resilient with EBIT of 94.20 million US dollars (+5.84% year over year), and the board declared a variable quarterly dividend of 0.77 US dollars per share.

The primary business remained highly concentrated in management fees, which produced 302.81 million US dollars and 99.93% of total quarterly revenue, with the overall top line advancing 9.35% year over year on stronger average AUM and stable fee yields, while performance fees were immaterial in the period.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Management-fee engine: average AUM and fee rate into fiscal Q2 2026

The baseline for fiscal Q2 rests on how the company’s average AUM (a key driver of management-fee revenue) evolved through the April–June period. Preliminary updates indicate AUM of 183.00 billion US dollars at April 30, 186.00 billion US dollars at May 31, and approximately 183.00 billion US dollars at June 30, 2026. Against fiscal Q1’s average AUM of 180.90 billion US dollars, this pattern suggests fiscal Q2’s average AUM likely ran modestly above the prior quarter despite a June step-down, consistent with consensus looking for mid-single-digit revenue growth year over year to 298.62 million US dollars. In our view, that setup implies management fees should land close to flat sequentially versus fiscal Q1 but higher year over year, with the exact outcome sensitive to day-weighting of AUM through June.

Fee rates remain another variable to watch. The firm’s weighted average fee rate, including performance fees, finished fiscal 2025 at roughly the high-60-basis-point range; mixing by vehicle and strategy can nudge that up or down within a narrow corridor. The market’s 5.54% revenue growth projection implicitly assumes a stable to slightly lower effective fee rate and no outsized mix shift to lower-fee mandates. That assumption is reasonable given the company flagged in early June that a roughly 5.70 billion US dollar U.S. sub-advisory Value Equity mandate would terminate in early June but suggested a muted revenue impact given associated fees; this points to limited fee-rate headwinds from that specific account. In aggregate, a modestly higher average AUM and contained changes in effective fee yields should keep management-fee revenue in line with consensus, leaving upside or downside largely dependent on intra-quarter flows and market performance into quarter-end.

Expenses tied to the management-fee franchise are also relevant for EBIT and EPS translation. Compensation scales with revenues and profitability but tends to track within a set ratio range across the year; non-compensation costs should remain manageable. Given EBIT is projected at 98.47 million US dollars (+8.69% year over year) and adjusted EPS at 0.90 (+11.46% year over year), the market is embedding modest operating leverage compared with fiscal Q1’s reported 94.20 million US dollars EBIT and 0.87 adjusted EPS. Achieving or surpassing those levels will depend on whether average AUM finished closer to the mid-to-high end of the intra-quarter range and whether expense ratios stayed disciplined.

Performance-fee optionality: small baseline with asymmetric upside

While management fees carry the quarter, performance fees can create incremental upside if realized gains and fee-bearing structures align. In fiscal 2025, performance fees totaled 29.10 million US dollars, up 97% year over year, demonstrating their potential to augment revenue when strategies generate outperformance and recognize fees. In fiscal Q1 2026, these fees were only 0.20 million US dollars, underscoring their volatility and strategy-specific timing. For fiscal Q2 2026, we see a low baseline baked into consensus, with potential upside if any strategies meet crystallization points or if vehicles with performance-fee structures record strong results that convert to fee income in the quarter.

From a modeling perspective, investors typically do not assign large performance-fee contributions outside of historically fee-heavy periods, but the absolute and relative returns across the quarter can still matter at the margin. Given the firm’s intra-quarter AUM progression and prior commentary that management is investing to expand in credit and alternatives, the fee mix could gradually include more vehicles with performance-aligned economics over time. However, the immediate quarter’s revenue forecast of 298.62 million US dollars does not presume a material pickup. If reported performance fees exceed immaterial levels, it would offer a lever for outperformance versus the top-line consensus, with incremental operating margin benefits since those fees arrive with limited incremental fixed cost. Conversely, a negligible performance-fee contribution would leave results mostly a function of average AUM and the management-fee take rate.

For EPS sensitivity, even a few million dollars of performance fees can add disproportionate upside given fixed-cost absorption and typical margin characteristics. Should the company report any notable performance-fee accruals, EBIT could overshoot the 98.47 million US dollars consensus by several million dollars, translating to a few cents of EPS beat, depending on the compensation accruals that accompany those fees. Still, prudent expectations set performance fees at a near-zero planning assumption for fiscal Q2, keeping our attention primarily on management-fee dynamics and expense discipline.

What will drive the stock near term: flows, AUM path, and capital returns

Flows and AUM path are likely to be the most important stock drivers around this print. Management indicated at the last quarterly update that equity-flow pressure could persist even as the firm invests in distribution and expands in credit and alternatives. The monthly AUM updates corroborate a quarter that started higher in May and ended lower in June, implying an average that is only slightly above fiscal Q1. If net client cash flows remained negative, but market appreciation supported balances enough to hold average AUM near the April–June range, top-line results should align with estimates; any sign of moderating net outflows would be supportive for forward revenue and could be positively received by the market.

On the expense side, investors will parse the compensation ratio and non-compensation trends for signals on operating leverage. The consensus uplift in EBIT and adjusted EPS year over year suggests a view that the company can hold or slightly improve margins on a mid-single-digit revenue increase. If management affirms that operating costs are tracking to plan and demonstrates control over variable expenses, EPS delivery near 0.90 is achievable even with modest revenue variability. This earnings translation will also intersect with capital returns: the company’s variable dividend framework typically reflects cash-flow generation and profitability in the period, and the declared dividend level can reinforce investor confidence in recurring cash returns.

Finally, any qualitative color on mandate wins or losses will matter for sentiment. The early-June termination of a roughly 5.70 billion US dollar sub-advisory mandate in Value Equity was characterized as having muted revenue impact; confirmation of that dynamic and context for the broader pipeline of opportunities in credit and alternatives would help investors balance near-term equity-flow headwinds with medium-term diversification benefits. If management points to tangible progress in higher-fee or differentiated strategies and stable expense trends, the stock could react constructively, particularly since the consensus baseline already discounts low performance-fee contributions and only modest AUM growth within the quarter.

Analyst Opinions

Bullish opinions outnumber bearish in the current period’s published views, with two positive ratings versus one negative, and we focus on the bullish perspective. A prominent bullish voice maintained a favorable stance through the first half of 2026, keeping an Outperform/Buy rating while adjusting the price target as market conditions evolved. The positive thesis emphasizes the predictability of the management-fee franchise, robust cash generation that supports recurring and variable dividends, and the prospect that revenue growth in credit and alternatives will incrementally diversify and enhance fee durability over time. In the context of fiscal Q2 2026, these analysts broadly align with consensus, looking for revenue around 298.62 million US dollars and adjusted EPS near 0.90, and they see the risk-reward balanced toward an in-line or modest beat if average AUM settles near the higher end of the quarter’s range and expenses remain within plan.

The bullish camp also highlights that, despite the announced early-June termination of a roughly 5.70 billion US dollar sub-advisory mandate in Value Equity, the revenue impact should be limited given the nature of the fees on that mandate, consistent with management’s description. This view tempers concerns about top-line pressure from mandate churn and keeps the focus on the broader book where day-weighted AUM levels and fee stability are the dominant drivers. In addition, the analysts point to management’s ongoing investments in distribution and strategy lineup—particularly in credit and alternatives—as a constructive sign for medium-term net flow improvement and potential mix benefits, while acknowledging that equity-flow headwinds may continue near term. The resilience in Q1 metrics, where revenue grew 9.35% year over year and adjusted EPS increased 4.82% year over year, is cited as evidence that the business can compound earnings even with limited performance-fee contributions.

Finally, bullish analysts suggest that an earnings print close to expectations—revenue up 5.54% year over year, EBIT up 8.69% year over year, and adjusted EPS up 11.46% year over year—would be sufficient to sustain positive sentiment given the income profile and dividend capacity. They look for qualitative commentary on flows and the pipeline in credit and alternatives to set the tone for the second half of fiscal 2026, with potential upside if any performance-fee accruals emerge or if June-quarter average AUM skews toward the upper end of the observed range. In their assessment, the current consensus is attainable, and the principal variables that could tilt results—average AUM, fee-rate mix, and expense discipline—are tracking within reasonable bands, supporting a constructive near-term outlook.