UK Official Statistics Losing Credibility as Royal Economic Society Calls for "Urgent Remedial Action"

Stock News
Aug 26

The Royal Economic Society (RES) has warned that as the crisis in the UK's official statistical indicators continues to deepen, academic research crucial for UK policy-making is being undermined and public credibility is gradually weakening, calling for "urgent remedial action" to address this major issue.

"Gaps in labor market data are preventing economists from properly analyzing UK wages, employment, inequality, and the impact of government policies," RES President Imran Rasul said in a statement on Tuesday. "At a time when the UK faces profound economic challenges, this is undermining both professional economic research and policy-making."

RES's comments add to the growing criticism of the Office for National Statistics (ONS), with previous issues affecting a wide range of UK official economic indicators. Just one week ago, the statistical agency delayed the release of July UK retail sales data by a full two weeks, citing the need for "further data quality assurance." This has heightened concerns about the accuracy of ONS labor market, price, and gross domestic product data.

The statistical data crisis ultimately led to investigations into the agency and the sudden departure of ONS Director Ian Diamond in May due to health reasons. Key government ministers and some Bank of England officials have previously complained that issues with tracking economic data, particularly labor market data, have made monetary policy formulation more difficult.

An ONS spokesperson stated that "a strategic plan has been launched, and with new senior leadership in place, we are working closely with key major clients and urgently refocusing resources on our core economic outputs."

RES has called for "urgent remedial action" to revitalize the UK's statistical work, while ONS is racing against time to improve response rates for its key household surveys. The statistical agency has been developing new labor market questionnaires but is not expected to transition to a primarily online-led labor market survey until later next year. This would be approximately three years after it first temporarily suspended the publication of Labour Force Survey estimates, leaving policy-makers increasingly frustrated as they attempt to assess labor market strength.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey warned last week that the surge in labor inactivity rates shown in official data may be overestimated, as "it's also possible that those not participating in economic activity are more actively participating in completing labor force surveys."

The "UK official statistics crisis" is essentially a combination of quality decline, publication delays, and methodological changes by the ONS across several key economic indicators: Labor Force Survey sample response rates have fallen dramatically, forcing authorities to repeatedly make "temporary" patches and reweight data; individual data errors have occurred (such as inflation measures); important monthly data releases have been delayed; and management turmoil and funding constraints have intensified external concerns about data credibility.

The collapse of sample responses, frequent methodological adjustments, individual data errors, and organizational resource pressures have combined to create a "credibility trough" for UK official statistical data. This statistical crisis has already affected academic research, fiscal and monetary policy-making, and prompted the Royal Economic Society's urgent call for "remedial action."

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