ECB's Simkus Signals Potential for Additional Rate Hike Following June Move

Deep News
May 29

European Central Bank Governing Council member Gediminas Simkus indicated in an interview that the ECB may need to implement another interest rate increase following a widely anticipated hike in June.

"The likelihood of a second rate hike action is greater," he stated in the interview published on Friday. "However, I believe we cannot yet determine whether it will occur in July, September, or October."

These remarks represent one of the most hawkish statements to date regarding the ECB's interest rate trajectory. While most of Simkus's colleagues have hinted at a potential rate hike next month, they have generally refrained from speculating on policy moves beyond that. His viewpoint aligns with current market expectations, which have fully priced in two rate hikes for this year.

Simkus also commented: "In terms of inflation, I think it is unlikely we will see sufficiently positive news to overturn the plan for a June rate hike." "Currently, we still have limited hard data on inflation," he said. "But we possess a significant amount of market-based and survey data, which clearly indicate we are in an environment of heightened inflationary pressures." "A prudent approach means acting in a timely manner now to raise rates, in order to curb inflationary pressures, guard against second-round inflation effects, and prevent a wage-price spiral." "I would not overemphasize the direct economic impact of a 25-basis-point, or even a 50-basis-point, rate hike this year."

Regarding the next round of quarterly forecasts, he noted that recent data and surveys point towards a trend of "slightly higher inflation and slightly slower growth."

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