Zheshang Securities has issued a research report reiterating a "Buy" rating on CIRRUS (02507). As the leader in piston private aircraft, the company is steadily increasing its market share by leveraging its product safety and customization advantages, while its service business is beginning to contribute to profit flexibility. It is anticipated that the launch of new products in 2026 will further drive order and delivery volumes to exceed expectations. Combined with the release of scale effects, its earnings are expected to achieve higher growth on the base of $200 million. Potential catalysts include a possible share buyback in March 2026, new product launches, and the disclosure of industry delivery data. The main views of Zheshang Securities are as follows:
**Industry Beta** The private aircraft industry is experiencing steady growth, with high-end models (jets) growing at a faster pace. Post-public health events, high-net-worth individuals have shown an increased preference for private travel options, and tariff fluctuations have led to a decline in competitors' market share. On the supply side, the continuous introduction of competitive new models is driving order growth.
**Company Alpha** CIRRUS is rapidly gaining market share based on its superior product strength and direct-to-consumer service attributes. The company is currently the leading player in the piston private aircraft industry, and its market share continues to grow. Product safety and customization form its core competitive barriers, supported by differentiated services and a systematic operational layout. Its long-term consumer-focused strategy has built a profound brand effect. Following the launch of the SR Series G7+ in 2025, orders have grown rapidly. The company is expected to launch a new model in 2026, which is anticipated to catalyze further unexpected order releases during the year, laying a solid foundation for high earnings growth.
**Key Expectation Gap** The company has a rich pipeline of subsequent new products, with a new model expected in 2026. As product capabilities accelerate further, this is projected to drive additional unexpected order growth. Simultaneously, scale effects are significant, providing flexibility for future net profit margins. The market expects steady sales growth with slight annual price increases. However, Zheshang Securities believes that with the launch of new products in 2026, order increments could surpass expectations. Given the currently long delivery cycle, stronger-than-expected order growth would underpin above-forecast delivery volumes for 2026-2027. Furthermore, the addition of new features is likely to lead to price increases exceeding expectations. The potential for scale effects to boost net profit margins may also be underestimated. In the first half of 2025, service business revenue growth accelerated to 24%, indicating that this high-margin segment is beginning to enter a phase of realization, with the potential for profit and earnings contributions to exceed expectations. Earnings for 2026 are expected to surpass forecasts on the base of $200 million.
**Potential Catalysts** 1) Based on 2025 trading volume and market cap performance, a share buyback is possible in March 2026; 2) New product launch in 2026; 3) Quarterly delivery data released by GAMA.
**Risk Warnings** Potential risks include production ramp-up falling short of expectations and significant macroeconomic volatility.