期权聚焦 | NBIS惊现76万美元大单卖出远虚值Call,多空博弈下空头情绪集中,上行空间遭质疑?

期权女巫
10 hours ago

NBIS收盘259.2美元,涨34.14%。当日一笔规模达76.54万美元的远虚值看涨期权卖出大单引发市场高度关注,该笔交易主导了整体偏空的情绪基调,资金对后市上行空间表现出明显谨慎。

期权指标分析

NBIS 当前隐含波动率(IV)为 106.01%,IV 百分位为 64.94%,整体处于中性区间,说明当前期权隐含波动率虽然绝对水平较高,但从历史分位看仍未进入明显偏贵区,市场对后续波动已有较充分预期,期权定价整体处于中性水平;同时 IV/HV 比率为 0.64,反映隐含波动率相对历史波动率并未出现显著高估。Call/Put 成交量比为 1.28,显示整体交投情绪未出现极端偏向。

大单交易

一笔规模达76.54万美元的CALL卖出成为当日最突出的期权大单,合约为2026-08-21到期、330.0行权价的虚值看涨期权,共成交7654张。由于当前股价参考为259.2,这笔合约距离现价仍有明显上方空间,属于卖出虚值看涨的偏空表达。策略上,这更像是在高位上方卖出CALL收取权利金,反映出资金对NBIS后续大幅上冲至330.0上方的预期较为谨慎,倾向认为中长期内股价上涨空间受限,至少短期内不看好出现足以推动该执行价转为实值的强势行情。总体来看,NBIS当日大单情绪明显偏空,且空头态度较为集中明确。主导资金主要通过卖出远虚值CALL来进行偏空布局或收租,同时也有看空PUT买盘配合,说明市场对后续走势缺乏乐观预期,整体更倾向于认为股价上行动能不足,短线至中期面临一定压制。

策略参考

对于同样持偏空或中性观点的卖方,可关注Delta较低的远虚值Call,如到期日相近且行权价在330.0以上的合约,其被行权的概率相对较低;若不愿承担过多保证金压力,亦可考虑构建熊市看涨价差组合,以控制风险敞口。

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