1. ECB President Lagarde Signals Rates at "Appropriate Levels": ECB President Christine Lagarde stated that eurozone borrowing costs are currently well-positioned, with monetary policy in a favorable stance. On November 28, Lagarde emphasized, "The rates set in our recent meetings are, in my view, correct. Given our success in controlling the inflation cycle, the current policy stance remains appropriate." The ECB maintained its deposit facility rate at 2.00%, refinancing rate at 2.15%, and marginal lending rate at 2.40% for the third consecutive meeting since July. Lagarde noted narrowing inflation risks but warned of potential upward price pressures from U.S. tariffs or supply chain disruptions. Most ECB officials anticipate no December rate adjustments unless quarterly forecasts show inflation undershooting targets.

2. Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Hits Five-Month Low: The final Eurozone Manufacturing PMI for November was revised down to 49.6 from 49.7 (preliminary), marking the first contraction since July. Germany’s PMI fell to 48.2 (from 49.6 in October), while France’s dropped to 47.8 (from 48.8). Key drags included weakening demand, accelerated job cuts, and inventory drawdowns. Input costs rose at the fastest pace since March, but output prices edged lower due to competitive pressures. Spain’s PMI slowed to 51.5 (vs. 52.1 previously), while Italy’s rebounded to 50.6—its first expansion since March 2023—driven by export recovery.

3. U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI Contracts Further: The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.2 in November (vs. 49 expected), extending its sub-50 streak to nine months. New orders (47.4) and employment (44) declined sharply, though production expanded at a four-month high. Input costs rose (58.5), reflecting tariff impacts. S&P Global’s U.S. PMI of 52.2 masked concerns over slowing order growth and record-high unsold inventories.

4. Technical Outlook for EURUSD: Despite six consecutive days of gains, EURUSD faces resistance at 1.1650 (Bollinger Band upper bound). Daily charts show RSI at 55-45 neutrality, with MACD and KDJ still favoring bears. A break above 1.1695 could open path to 1.1780, while failure to hold 1.1470 risks retesting 1.1390. Four-hour charts highlight 1.1590 as critical support; a drop below may trigger tests of 1.1560.

5. Geopolitical and Market Context: Eurozone growth diverges, with France/Spain outperforming Germany/Italy. Fed rate-cut expectations (85% priced for December) weigh on USD, though ECB policy stability offers EUR limited support. Upcoming eurozone CPI data and Fed Chair Powell’s speech (constrained by blackout) are key near-term catalysts.