Investor attention is set to be dominated by a confluence of policy developments and key economic indicators this week. The past week saw markets react to a significant Supreme Court ruling that struck down a major portion of former President Trump's tariff framework. In response, Trump swiftly signed an executive order for a 10% global import tariff and subsequently announced an increase of this new levy to 15%. The global trade system faces increasing challenges to stability and growth amid these shifting undercurrents. Following the Supreme Court decision, major U.S. stock indices reversed early losses to close higher on Friday. The S&P 500 index gained 0.7%, finishing the week up 1.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5% on Friday, with a weekly gain of 0.3%. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.9% for the day and 1.3% for the week. Oil prices closed the week approximately 5.5% higher, as traders factored in risks of supply disruptions in the Middle East should the U.S. take military action against Iran, bringing the commodity's monthly return to around 11%.

The economic calendar this week highlights Friday's Producer Price Index (PPI) data, which will provide investors with a reading on upstream input costs as inflation remains stubbornly above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Recent Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index data showed both headline and core PCE (the Fed's preferred inflation gauge) rose 0.4% month-over-month in December, an acceleration from November. Investors will also receive consumer confidence data from The Conference Board on Tuesday, along with further labor market insights from weekly initial and continuing jobless claims on Wednesday, as markets attempt to assess the state of the job market. Additionally, former President Trump is scheduled to deliver the State of the Union address on Tuesday.

In the corporate sphere, all eyes are on NVIDIA (NVDA.US), which is set to report its fourth-quarter earnings after the market closes on Wednesday. The financial results from the world's most valuable chipmaker will serve as a crucial barometer for the health of the artificial intelligence (AI) trade. Earnings from Salesforce (CRM.US) on Wednesday will also offer perspective on the software sector, which experienced significant selling pressure in February. Reports from Home Depot (HD.US) and Lowe's (LOW.US) on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively, will provide investors with alternative indicators for the housing market. Meanwhile, earnings from Constellation Energy (CEG.US) and Dominion Energy (D.US) will yield deeper insights into the U.S. power market.

The long-awaited Supreme Court ruling on tariffs, delivered on Friday, struck a significant blow to the Trump administration's economic and foreign policy. The court ruled 6-3 that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not grant the president broad authority to impose tariffs on other nations. Minutes after the decision was announced, stocks reversed initial losses to trade slightly higher, indicating a positive market reaction. "The muted market response to the Supreme Court's ruling on Trump-era tariffs suggests this was largely priced in," said Gina Bolvin, President of Bolvin Wealth Management Group. "With IEEPA tariffs accounting for about 60% of the tariffs collected, the economic impact of the ruling is limited." However, the potential issue of tariff refunds, which some estimates suggest could total up to $175 billion, was not addressed and will now be taken up by the U.S. Court of International Trade in Washington, D.C.

At a press conference on Friday, Trump stated that the administration would immediately implement a "10% global tariff... on top of normally assessed duties" under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, as it pivots to other measures to replace the invalidated IEEPA tariffs. "We would view any short-term rally following the Supreme Court decision with skepticism, as the Trump administration will quickly pivot to a different legal justification for implementing alternative tariffs, further widening the fiscal deficit in the process," wrote Jeff Buchbinder, Chief Equity Strategist at LPL Financial. "However, if lower tariffs help cool inflation, it could solidify expectations for Fed rate cuts later this year," he added. Notably, following the Supreme Court's decision, Trump promptly issued a new executive order announcing a 10% import tariff on goods from all countries, effective February 24, 2026, and raised the rate to 15% the following day.

Oil prices, which had been on a steady decline through 2025, have risen 15% since the start of 2026, largely attributable to tensions with Iran. Over the past month, Washington and Tehran have been negotiating a new nuclear agreement aimed at limiting Iran's ability to develop nuclear weapons. Trump stated last Thursday that Iran had 10 days to reach a deal with the U.S., heightening the possibility of military action. Reports indicate Trump is considering a "preliminary limited military strike" to compel Iran to accept U.S. demands regarding the nuclear deal. U.S. and Iranian negotiators are expected to meet in Geneva this Thursday. The Trump administration is reportedly leaning toward an initial strike in the coming days, with the potential for larger-scale attacks in subsequent months.

While Iran possesses the world's third-largest proven oil reserves and is a top-ten global producer, oil markets are most focused on the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping chokeway through which approximately 20 million barrels of oil products transit daily. Jorge Leon, Head of Geopolitical Analysis at Rystad Energy, suggested that if U.S. action is small and targeted, oil prices could see a brief spike of around $10 per barrel before quickly rebalancing. If the U.S. instead engages in sustained military action—particularly if it triggers significant Iranian retaliation, such as attacks on regional oil infrastructure—the market could experience a "sustained price increase of (around) $15 per barrel." "If the market begins to seriously price in the possibility of a U.S. strike on Iran in the coming weeks, the reaction will depend more on the scale and consequences of the action than the political narrative itself," said Daniela Hathorn, an analyst at Capital. Hathorn noted that even without immediate military action, "prolonged uncertainty alone may be enough to sustain a geopolitical risk premium."