The World Trade Organization (WTO) released its latest "Global Trade Outlook and Statistics" report on October 7, stating that global goods trade growth in the first half of 2025 exceeded expectations, driven mainly by strong demand for artificial intelligence (AI)-related goods, early imports in North America to avoid tariffs, and active trade among emerging economies.
Against this backdrop, the WTO raised its 2025 global goods trade growth forecast from 0.9% in August to 2.4%, while lowering its 2026 forecast from the previous 1.8% to 0.5%. In comparison, global GDP growth forecasts are 2.7% for 2025 and 2.6% for 2026.
WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala stated that countries' "restrained response" to tariff changes, the growth potential of the AI industry, and the recovery of trade among emerging economies have alleviated external pressures in 2025. Okonjo-Iweala candidly noted that global goods trade growth expectations are much higher than before, not to mention that in April, negative growth in goods trade was still anticipated.
AI Products Contribute Nearly Half of Growth, Asian Exports Show Strong Performance
The report shows that global goods trade volume (measured by the average of imports and exports) grew 4.9% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with trade value in US dollars increasing 6%. AI-related goods—including semiconductors, servers, and telecommunications equipment—became key drivers of growth, with trade value surging 20% year-on-year, contributing nearly half of the overall increase in the first half.
The WTO pointed out that trade expansion in the AI industry chain covers everything from silicon materials and specialty gases to equipment supporting cloud computing and AI applications. Asian exports performed outstandingly in this field, echoing the continuation of the global artificial intelligence investment boom.
The report shows that South-South trade (trade between emerging economies) grew 8% year-on-year in the first half, higher than the global overall growth rate of 6%.
Okonjo-Iweala emphasized: "Trade resilience in 2025 has largely benefited from the rules-based multilateral trading system. However, we should not become complacent, and countries should work together to build a more inclusive and sustainable global trade landscape."
Trade Growth Shows Regional Differentiation
The WTO expects Asia and Africa to achieve the fastest export growth in 2025, with South America, Central America, and the Middle East also maintaining moderate expansion. European export growth is likely to slow, while North American export trade may decline. On the import side, Africa and Least Developed Countries (LDCs) are expected to lead growth rates, contrasting with North America's contraction.
Global GDP is expected to grow 2.7% in 2025, slightly declining to 2.6% in 2026. Although inventory accumulation and AI-related goods supported trade growth in the short term, tariff effects may not manifest until 2026.
Global services trade growth momentum is weakening. The WTO expects global commercial services export growth to decline from 6.8% in 2024 to 4.6% in 2025, and further to 4.4% in 2026.
However, digitally deliverable services (such as cloud computing, software, and remote outsourcing) performed steadily, with growth expected to rise slightly to 6.1% in 2025.
Regarding regional performance, Europe is expected to lead global services export growth in 2025, followed by Asia and the Middle East.
The report concludes: "The trade recovery in 2025 demonstrates systemic resilience, but the real challenge lies in how to maintain an open, stable, and inclusive global trading system under the new geopolitical and technological landscape."