Investment Strategy Recommendation: TA601 Range-bound Trading
This week, the domestic PTA futures market initially declined but subsequently rallied significantly due to the warming sentiment in domestic commodities. As of Friday, spot prices in East China reached 4,590 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous Friday. Currently, PTA's supply-demand fundamentals remain lackluster, and next week is expected to see range-bound trading, primarily due to the following factors:
From the crude oil perspective, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to create potential supply risks, while possible escalation of US sanctions on certain oil-producing countries, combined with declining US commercial crude inventories, collectively provide support for oil prices. However, US refineries are about to enter the autumn maintenance season, which will reduce crude oil demand. Additionally, OPEC+ plans to initiate a new round of production increases starting in October, limiting the upside potential for oil prices.
From the supply-demand structure perspective, current PTA operating rates stand at 75.99%, with significant variations in facility operations, but overall spot supply remains loose with modest inventory accumulation. Polyester operating rates have declined slightly, while textile manufacturing operations are down 2.1% compared to the same period last year. Although terminal orders are showing moderate recovery, companies remain focused on executing existing orders. Constrained by high inventory levels, downstream textile manufacturers remain extremely cautious in purchasing raw materials such as polyester filament, strictly adhering to just-in-time procurement with small batch sizes, lacking proactive stockpiling intentions, which significantly hampers market confidence recovery.
In summary, while PTA's own supply-demand dynamics are weakening, short-term support from oil prices and domestic macroeconomic environment suggests next week will primarily feature range-bound trading.
Conclusion: TA601 Range-bound Trading
Key factors to watch next week: International tariffs and geopolitical developments, OPEC+ production increase plans, PX and PTA facility operating conditions, terminal demand improvement trends