On August 22, 2025, during the morning opening, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Fuel oil and caustic soda gained over 2%, while styrene (EB), SC crude oil, and live hogs rose over 1%. On the decline side, coking coal and eggs fell over 1%, with rapeseed meal and hot rolled coil dropping nearly 1%.

Guangda Futures Analysis:

Regarding data, as of the week ending August 16, seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims increased by 11,000 to 235,000, marking the largest increase since late May.

On interest rate cuts, Bullard, a leading candidate for the next Fed Chair, stated that interest rates are currently somewhat high and believes they could be reduced by approximately 100 basis points by 2026, starting with rate cuts at the September meeting, with possible further action later this year. Fed's Goolsbee indicated that the latest inflation data is not ideal, tariff increases appear far from over, and persistent inflation risks remain. The latest CME "FedWatch" data shows a 25% probability of maintaining current rates in September, a 75% probability of a 25 basis point cut, a 13.3% probability of maintaining rates unchanged through October, a 51.5% probability of cumulative 25 basis point cuts, and a 35.3% probability of cumulative 50 basis point cuts.

Overall, tariff policies have not concluded, inflationary pressures may continue to exist, and the market believes there is only a 51.5% probability of cumulative 25 basis point cuts by the Fed in September and October. Attention now turns to Fed Chair Powell's speech tonight at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Conference to see if this year's rate cut expectations can be significantly raised.