The AI boom has ignited a wave of price increases, with the memory "super cycle" redistributing the pie: module factories are seeing profits double and are accelerating their positioning, while terminal manufacturers are forced to raise prices and reduce configurations.
In 2026, the air in Huaqiangbei no longer smells of solder flux but is instead charged with the fervor of a "gold rush." "Just two years ago, we were begging clients to clear inventory; now, our quoted prices can't even keep up with the pace of price hikes," said a shop owner specializing in memory modules in Huaqiangbei, grinning from ear to ear. Amid the rising price tide, memory chip-related companies have successively reported "turnaround accounts": some have turned losses into profits, while others have seen profits double. Across these various announcements, one reason is consistently cited—memory prices have stabilized and rebounded from their lows, with AI driving demand upward. Simultaneously, a stark contrast is emerging: on one side, companies in the memory industry chain are experiencing a performance recovery, frequently producing top growth stocks and multi-baggers; on the other side, terminal manufacturers are being pressured by costs to adjust prices and cut product models, with notebook shipment expectations also being revised downward. In this "super cycle," who is cashing in, who is scrambling for position, and who is struggling?
Who is cashing in? Various signals indicate that the memory market is emerging from its trough and entering a new upward cycle. As 2025 performance forecasts are intensively disclosed, A-share memory-related companies have also presented impressive "report cards." According to statistics, as of January 29, 52 A-share memory chip concept companies had released their 2025 performance forecasts. A total of 25 companies reported positive performance expectations, with 31 companies achieving year-on-year growth in net profit attributable to shareholders. Among them, 13 companies saw the upper limit of their net profit attributable to shareholders increase by over 100%.
Rising memory prices are the core factor behind the companies' projected profit growth. Biwin Storage stated, "Starting from the second quarter of 2025, as memory prices stabilized and rebounded, the company's key projects were gradually delivered, leading to a gradual recovery in sales revenue and gross margin, and a gradual improvement in operating performance." Longsys provided an explanation: memory prices bottomed out in the first quarter before stabilizing and rebounding. By the end of the third quarter, due to exploding demand for AI servers and wafer manufacturers shifting capacity towards enterprise-grade products, supply became further imbalanced, causing memory prices to continue rising. Leveraging its high-end product portfolio, overseas business expansion, and proprietary brand advantages, the company returned to profitability in the first half of the year and saw its profit levels steadily improve in the second half. The price increases for memory chips and downstream products are expected to continue. A recent report from market research firm Counterpoint Research shows that the memory market situation has surpassed the historical high of 2018, with supplier bargaining power reaching its highest level ever. Memory prices are forecast to rise another 40% to 50% in the first quarter of 2026, followed by a further approximate 20% increase in the second quarter. With the arrival of the AI-driven memory "super cycle," the A-share market has also given birth to several memory star stocks. As of the market close on January 29, 2026, Puramicro had surged over 119% year-to-date. Meanwhile, Duke Tech and Henshine saw gains exceeding 80%.
Who is scrambling for position? "The production line machinery is already operating at full capacity, orders are scheduled until next year, and we even hesitate to answer calls from clients asking for goods, for fear of offending them," said a manager of a Shenzhen module factory, expressing both excitement and anxiety. This is the daily reality currently experienced by memory chip module manufacturers. An AI-driven memory chip "super cycle" is reshaping the entire industry chain with unprecedented force. An industry analyst noted, "The memory demand for a typical server is roughly 64-128GB, whereas an AI server, needing to handle large model training and inference, sees per-unit memory demand skyrocket to 512GB-1TB, which is 8-10 times that of a regular server. More critically, this demand is accelerating explosively." With the rapid adoption of AI across various application scenarios, higher requirements are being placed on semiconductor storage capacity. As this industry upcycle arrives, change has become an inevitable choice for domestic module manufacturers—how to secure a place in the "super cycle"? The answer might be: no longer limiting themselves to the processing stage of memory wafers, but advancing towards the upstream technology end to capture higher added value. In the past, domestic module manufacturers primarily competed on price in consumer markets like mobile phones and PCs; now, they are shifting towards enterprise markets such as data centers and AI servers. Customers in this sector are less price-sensitive, prioritizing product stability and reliability, which consequently offers more substantial profit margins. Longsys revealed in its performance forecast that, leveraging its full-stack capabilities in controller chips, firmware algorithms, and packaging and testing, it has established deep cooperative relationships with multiple wafer manufacturers and leading smart terminal device makers. Flagship storage products, represented by UFS4.1, are on the verge of volume shipment. Simultaneously, the company has achieved volume shipments of customized edge AI storage products to leading clients. During the reporting period, the company also launched its wafer-level SiP packaged mSSD product, which is being rapidly adopted by several leading PC manufacturers. Recently, Longsys announced a fundraising plan of 3.7 billion yuan, aimed at increasing investment in three core industry chain segments: memory product application technology development, NAND Flash controller chip design, and memory chip packaging and testing, thereby enhancing its sustainable profitability. Meanwhile, in November 2025, Demingli disclosed plans for a private placement to raise up to 3.2 billion yuan. The funds will be used for SSD capacity expansion projects, DRAM product capacity expansion projects, the Demingli Intelligent Storage Management and R&D Headquarters Base project, and to supplement working capital. Puramicro is also "completing the puzzle," having acquired a 31% stake in Nuoya Changtian for 144 million yuan, thereby achieving indirect control of the memory company SHM, which took over the 2D NAND-related business spun off from SK Hynix, further enriching its product line. An industry insider stated bluntly, "The window of opportunity won't wait. The slower you are to position yourself, the more marginalized you'll be in the next round of 'pie-sharing'."
Who is under pressure? The tide of price increases flows from upstream to downstream, and the hardest hit are often the terminal manufacturers that face consumers directly—they are the most price-sensitive, the most reliant on sales volume, and find it most difficult to fully "pass on" the costs. The latest industry survey from TrendForce indicates that, impacted by both phased CPU shortages and price hikes and the surge in memory prices, coupled with synchronous cost increases for multiple components like PCBs and batteries, global notebook shipments in the first quarter of 2026 are expected to decrease by 14.8% quarter-on-quarter, falling far short of brand manufacturers' initial expectations. Concurrently, the full-year shipment forecast has been revised down from an earlier projected annual decline of 5.4% to an annual decline of 9.4%, indicating significant short-term uncertainty for the industry. Under cost pressure, terminal strategies often have only two paths: either raise prices to protect margins, or reduce configurations to maintain price points. Since late 2025, leading manufacturers have begun strategically adjusting prices for multiple product lines. At the beginning of 2026, Lenovo had already adjusted prices for several notebook models listed on its official website. Among them, the official retail prices of mid-to-high-end models priced above 5,000 yuan have been increased by 500 to 1,500 yuan. Dell raised prices for commercial computers starting late 2025, with increases around 10%-30%; Asus issued a price adjustment notice, implementing strategic price increases for some products effective January 5, 2026; HP also publicly indicated that the second half of 2026 might be more challenging, and further price hikes might be necessary if needed. It has been noted that several manufacturers, including Xiaomi, Lenovo, and OPPO, have successively adjusted prices for newly released mid-range and flagship models. Some brands have even canceled plans to launch low-end models. It is understood that the cost structure of smartphones is highly dependent on memory configuration; memory costs account for 15%-20% of the BOM cost for mid-range models and about 10%-15% for high-end flagship models. Lu Weibing, President of Xiaomi Group, recently commented during the预热 for a new Redmi phone that the "memory price hike" is forcing brands to either raise prices or reduce specs, directly undermining the foundation of "cost-performance" for mid-range phones. Simultaneously, financial signals of "compressed profits" are beginning to appear. A-share mobile phone manufacturer Transsion Holdings disclosed its 2025 performance forecast on January 29, 2026:预计 revenue is approximately 65.568 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.58%; net profit attributable to shareholders is approximately 2.546 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year decline of 54.11%. When explaining the reasons for the performance change, the company clearly stated: affected by supply chain costs, rising prices of components including memory have increased product costs, leading to a decline in overall gross margin, while sales expenses and R&D investment have increased. Against this backdrop, IDC analyst Guo Tianxiang believes that shipments in the Chinese smartphone market may see a relatively noticeable decline in 2026. TrendForce also warns that as the tight supply of memory continues, smaller smartphone brands will face greater difficulty obtaining resources, potentially leading the market into a new round of "reshuffle," where the trend of the strong getting stronger will become more pronounced. As price hikes move from channel quotes into financial reports, and from financial reports to terminal retail prices, the questions remain: Who is cashing in? Who is scrambling for position? And who is struggling? The answers will likely continue to be written in every price increase notice, every shipment figure, and every earnings report throughout the first half of 2026.