On June 29th, the gold market last week: International gold prices closed with a volatile, near-doji candlestick pattern. Prices initially strengthened on optimistic signals from US-Iran talks but were then pressured lower by resistance, a spillover of selling pressure from tech stocks into precious metals, and continued hawkish rhetoric from the Federal Reserve, pushing gold to fresh lows. However, the subsequent release of inflation data largely meeting expectations, coupled with comments from the Fed's Williams suggesting inflationary pressures are expected to ease, alleviated concerns about imminent Fed rate hikes, allowing gold to rebound from its lows.

Although the price further extended its decline and remains below the 60-week moving average, its proximity to the support line of the rising trend channel that began in 2024 suggests limited downside potential. The outlook favors a period of consolidation and potential bottoming before resuming an upward trajectory.

In terms of specific price action, gold opened the week at $4,145.44 per ounce, initially rebounding to a weekly high of $4,220.36. However, the rally failed to sustain, and prices turned lower, falling consecutively to touch a weekly low of $3,959.22 on Wednesday. From there, the decline halted, and a rebound ensued, with prices closing Friday at $4,070.54. (Note: Closing prices may vary significantly across trading platforms due to different market close times and volatile end-of-week movements.) The weekly range was $261.14, with a net loss of $74.90, representing a decline of 1.81%.

Looking ahead to this Monday (June 29th): International gold opened weaker. Mutual strikes between Iran and the US over the weekend, and Iran's absence from the technical talks on the 28th, exerted downward pressure. However, the situation quickly reversed, with US media reporting that both sides agreed to halt strikes and will meet in Qatar this Tuesday to focus on the Strait dispute, which limited the early session losses.

Overall, expectations for volatile consolidation persist within the week. The prospects for geopolitical peace talks remain uncertain, with attacks and hardline stances continuing. Russia's suggestion for both Ukraine and Russia to cease strikes on each other's deep territory targets has also somewhat reduced safe-haven demand. Additionally, while recent economic data and falling oil prices have slightly tempered market expectations for Fed rate hikes, the Fed's hawkish risk bias has not yet shifted. Therefore, in the near term, gold prices are still biased towards weaker adjustment, awaiting potential bottom-fishing and reversal opportunities in August and September.

This week, the market will face a series of significant events. The release of the US non-farm payrolls report for June, combined with a dense disclosure of PMI, inflation, and core employment data from multiple countries, plus the gathering of four major European and American central bank governors at a forum to collectively signal global monetary policy direction, is highly likely to trigger substantial volatility in global forex and bond markets. This will also drive price action in the precious metals market, where investors can follow real-time guidance from Zhang Yaoxi's managed accounts.

Subsequently, focus will shift to the core US non-farm payrolls data for June, paying close attention to key structural elements like the change in employment, the unemployment rate, and wage growth. The strength or weakness of this data will directly adjust expectations for Fed rate cuts or hikes, determine short-term pricing for global risk assets, and influence the direction of gold prices. Current market expectations lean towards being favorable for gold.

Concurrently, the US will release weekly initial and continuing jobless claims data along with May durable goods consumption figures, further refining the picture of the US employment, consumer, and manufacturing fundamentals to aid the market in assessing the resilience of the US economy. Overall, the probability of volatile consolidation or a bottoming rebound is relatively high this week.

Fundamental Analysis

According to analyst Zhang Yaoxi: Gold prices have been in a corrective decline phase since late February, when US-Israel military action against Iran heightened tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, causing oil prices to spike near $120. While oil prices have since retreated to pre-conflict levels and geopolitical tensions have eased, the resulting inflation concerns and expectations for Fed rate hikes have persisted, simultaneously reducing safe-haven demand and keeping gold in a corrective phase.

However, recently released US inflation data met, or slightly underperformed, expectations. Coupled with the continued decline in oil prices, this suggests subsequent inflation worries will diminish, and the probability of Fed rate hikes will decrease accordingly, potentially shifting the outlook back towards rate cuts. Even if a hike occurs, it would likely represent a "sell the news" event where the negative impact is already priced in.

Therefore, current bearish factors are generally decreasing or gradually fading, turning into potential positives. The subsequent focus will be on the final outcome of negotiations on nuclear and sanctions issues expected within 60 days. If an agreement is reached, it would significantly weaken the inflation outlook, reduce Fed rate hike expectations, and propel gold prices to strengthen and climb again by September. Conversely, failure would pressure gold to continue adjusting lower, though likely in a volatile, range-bound manner.

The current situation still leans optimistic. Even if an agreement on nuclear and sanctions issues is not reached within the initial 60 days, the timeline would likely be extended to 90 or 120 days, with an agreement still expected eventually. Furthermore, the IEA monthly report indicates that a gradual restoration of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will lead to a significant oil surplus next year, which would also greatly reduce inflation.

From a medium-to-long-term perspective, gold's attributes as a safe-haven and inflation hedge have not disappeared. Trends in central bank gold purchases, geopolitical uncertainty, and potential windows for monetary policy shifts all provide support for gold. Therefore, following the Fed's September policy announcement or entering the fourth quarter towards year-end could again mark an entry point for a new phase of rising gold prices. Investors need to view this correction with a holistic perspective, manage risks, and look for opportunities to build positions in batches during pullbacks to prepare for a potential next cycle of price increases.

Technical Analysis

On the monthly chart, gold prices continue to maintain downward momentum, moving lower and away from the resistance of the 5- and 10-month moving averages and the rising trendline. Bearish force is increasing, suggesting the potential for further bottom-seeking adjustment, with expectations to test support near the middle Bollinger Band around $3,760 and potentially $3,500. However, this would also represent a key entry point for renewed bullish positioning.

On the weekly chart, gold has been trading below the 5- and 10-week moving averages in recent weeks, indicating a weak trend. The current price action has also broken below the support of the 60-week moving average and continues to trend lower, increasing bearish pressure. However, the price has not yet decisively broken the $4,000 level, and the recent candlestick pattern suggests potential for the decline to halt. Furthermore, it is approaching support from the rising trend channel. Therefore, if prices decline further to new lows, the support from the rising trend channel and the 100-week moving average would present favorable entry levels.

On the daily chart, gold prices are currently near horizontal support and the support line of the rising trend channel that began in 2024, showing signs of a halted decline and rebound. The short-term bias favors consolidation or recovery. However, for a stable transition to a stronger bullish trend capable of sustaining a bull market, it needs to break above the bearish alignment of numerous moving averages overhead—specifically, reclaiming the $4,800 level. Until that happens, trading should focus on intraday, phase-specific long and short opportunities.

Preliminary intraday trading level references are as follows. Specific entry and exit points should be confirmed based on managed account notifications:

Gold: Support levels to watch are around $4,020 or $3,975; Resistance levels to watch are around $4,100 or $4,120.

Silver: Support levels to watch are around $57.70 or $56.50; Resistance levels to watch are around $61.00 or $61.70.