Abstract

Bank of Nova Scotia will report its quarterly results on February 24, 2026 Pre-Market.

Market Forecast

Consensus for Bank of Nova Scotia’s current quarter points to revenue of $9.61 billion with a forecast year-over-year increase of 7.80%, EPS of 1.95 with a forecast year-over-year increase of 18.47%, and EBIT of $4.36 billion with a forecast year-over-year increase of 15.94%. The company’s prior report showed revenue of $9.80 billion with a year-over-year increase of 14.98% and delivered EPS of 1.93 with a year-over-year increase of 22.93%, alongside EBIT of $4.46 billion with a year-over-year increase of 19.16%. There is no explicit guidance available for gross profit margin or net profit margin in the current quarter forecast; last quarter’s net profit margin stood at 30.38%. Main business highlights center on domestic and international banking operations, global wealth management, and global banking and markets, with the Canadian Banking and International Banking divisions remaining the largest revenue contributors and operational anchors. The most promising segment identified by recent performance is International Banking at $12.04 billion in revenue; however, year-over-year growth data is not provided in the available set.

Last Quarter Review

Bank of Nova Scotia reported revenue of $9.80 billion, net profit attributable to the parent company of $2.22 billion, a net profit margin of 30.38%, and adjusted EPS of 1.93; the quarter’s quarter-on-quarter net profit change was -9.32%. Gross profit margin was not disclosed in the available dataset. A notable highlight was the revenue outperformance versus the prior consensus, with actual revenue exceeding the estimate by $0.39 billion while adjusted EPS surpassed expectations by 0.10. Main business performance was led by Canadian Banking at $13.43 billion, International Banking at $12.04 billion, Global Wealth Management at $6.43 billion, and Global Banking and Markets at $6.17 billion; the “Other” item posted -$0.32 billion. Year-over-year breakdowns were not included in the dataset.

Current Quarter Outlook

Canadian Banking

The Canadian Banking unit is the largest revenue contributor and typically the primary driver of group net interest income and fee-based volumes. Heading into this quarter, modest loan growth and stable deposit balances are expected to underpin revenue against a backdrop of cautiously easing domestic monetary conditions. Asset quality in consumer lending and mortgages remains the key swing factor, with credit loss provisions likely to be influenced by unemployment normalization and pockets of stress among variable-rate borrowers. Pricing discipline on deposits and mortgages, alongside mix shifts toward secured lending, could support net interest margins even if benchmark rates remain largely unchanged through late winter. Operational efficiency initiatives implemented over prior quarters provide a tailwind to pre-provision earnings, though the benefit may be partially offset by wage inflation and technology investment spend. A watchpoint this quarter will be fee momentum in payments and cards, where seasonal spending patterns in early calendar-year months tend to normalize from holiday peaks, potentially dampening non-interest revenue on a sequential basis.

International Banking

International Banking stands out for both revenue scale and earnings leverage, particularly through subsidiaries in the Pacific Alliance countries. Exchange-rate dynamics and local rate trajectories are influential, with recent currency stability versus the US dollar favoring translated results. From a business mix perspective, retail and commercial lending are expected to show steady activity, while remittance and payments flows can add incremental fee income. Risk considerations include sensitivity to local inflation trends and the pace of rate cuts by regional central banks, which may compress margins but stimulate volume growth. Credit performance will be scrutinized as growth resumes across small and medium enterprises, where underwriting discipline remains crucial. Management’s ongoing strategy to simplify product sets and harmonize risk frameworks across markets can improve cross-border operational coherence, which, in turn, supports sustainable ROE even if top-line growth moderates. For this quarter, the unit’s prior revenue base near $12.04 billion creates room for mild upside if loan origination and fee accruals track stronger than seasonal norms.

Global Wealth Management

Global Wealth Management benefits from improving market levels and client risk appetite, which together drive higher asset-based fees and advisory activity. Equity market resilience through early calendar 2026 provides a constructive backdrop for flows into managed and discretionary mandates. Counsel fees, trading commissions, and asset management revenues often exhibit tighter correlation with market beta; therefore, a constructive quarter for major indices generally translates to sequential fee improvement. Strategic emphasis on integrated banking and wealth propositions is likely to sustain cross-selling benefits, lifting client retention and share-of-wallet. Yet fee compression pressures remain present in passive products, and competitive pricing requires careful management to preserve margins. Operating costs, notably in digital advisory and compliance functions, are offset by scale gains from platform modernization. The segment’s contribution to group EPS can be supportive this quarter if risk-on investor behavior persists, although late-month volatility could challenge net new asset flows.

Global Banking and Markets

Global Banking and Markets is positioned to benefit from pockets of capital markets issuance, as well as client hedging and risk management demand. Debt capital markets volumes tend to recover early in the year when issuers reset funding plans, which may support underwriting and advisory fees. Trading performance hinges on rate volatility and credit spreads; moderate volatility typically supports flow businesses, while extreme conditions can reduce client activity. A balanced risk posture in fixed income, currencies, and commodities should help stabilize revenues against episodic market swings. Corporate lending is expected to remain disciplined, with risk-weighted asset optimization and pricing actions keeping returns within target ranges. The segment’s sequential revenue cadence could depend on primary issuance timing and the breadth of client risk mitigation needs; calendar clustering of deals around February can create concentrated fee capture in the reporting window. Given the previous quarter’s $6.17 billion revenue base, incremental gains in underwriting and spread products may lift EBIT sensitivity positively this quarter.

Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

Investors will focus on credit quality and provision trends, particularly in Canadian consumer and commercial books, as these lines have an outsize impact on net income variance. EPS trajectory versus the forecast 18.47% year-over-year improvement will be a critical sentiment anchor; a miss on EPS, even with in-line revenue, could lead to valuation pressure given recent outperformance. Cost control and efficiency metrics, including operating leverage versus investment in technology and compliance, will be dissected to gauge sustainability of earnings. Segment mix will also matter: upside from International Banking and Global Banking and Markets could be offset by normalization in domestic fees or higher-than-expected provisions. Finally, management commentary on capital deployment and dividend policy will shape expectations for shareholder returns in the remainder of the fiscal year.

Analyst Opinions

Across recent institutional commentary, the balance of views trends Neutral-to-Positive, with a majority of analysts cautiously constructive on near-term EPS delivery relative to estimates and supportive on the multi-segment earnings mix. Several global brokerages have pointed to the improving earnings cadence from prior quarters and the prospect of manageable provisions as catalysts for in-line to modestly better results. The constructive camp highlights the forecast year-over-year growth in EPS of 18.47% and EBIT of 15.94% as reasonable targets given seasonality and the company’s scale benefits across Canadian and International Banking. By contrast, more cautious voices cite the quarter-on-quarter net profit decline of -9.32% last quarter and potential normalization in wealth and capital markets fees as offsetting variables. Overall, the majority view expects revenue near $9.61 billion and EPS around 1.95, with upside contingent on credit costs staying benign and fee momentum holding through late February.