As January trading concludes, the 2026 Spring Festival draws nearer, prompting speculation on the market's trajectory and which sectors are poised to deliver pre-holiday "red envelope" gains. Historical data reveals that the Shanghai Composite Index has posted gains in over 75% of the 10 trading days leading up to the Spring Festival. As of January 30, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index gained over 3.5% in January, while the STAR 50 Index surged more than 12%, and the SSE 50 Index saw a modest increase of around 1%. With only 10 trading days remaining until the 2026 Spring Festival, terms like "Spring Festival rally" dominate institutional research reports, raising questions about the A-share market's near-term direction. Statistics from DataBar show that from 2000 to 2025, measuring performance from T-9 days to T day (the last trading day before the holiday), the Shanghai Composite Index averaged a 1.9% gain, rising nearly 77% of the time. In 2025, it rose 2.84% in this period, and in 2023, it surged 3.39%.

Major institutions like China Galaxy and Soochow Securities share a consensus view for the pre-holiday market: the earnings theme and high-growth sectors are expected to be the primary focus for capital. Zhongtai Securities advocates a "phased allocation and dynamic adjustment" strategy, suggesting the market may maintain a strong,震荡偏强 pattern with continued differentiation from late January until the holiday. During this phase, tech sector momentum could spread from main themes to细分领域, with a focus on high-volatility directions attracting concentrated capital. Four sectors have historically posted gains over 70% of the time in the 10 days before the Spring Festival. Sector analysis from 2000 to 2025 indicates 14 industries have上涨概率 exceeding 65% pre-holiday, with four above 70%. The banking sector leads with over 80% odds, while home appliances, non-bank financials, and automobiles all exceed 73%. Steel, non-ferrous metals, and building materials also show probabilities above 69%. Conversely, beauty care and media sectors have the lowest odds. The non-bank financial sector averages nearly a 3.8% gain before the holiday. Huaxi Securities' recent report expresses optimism about the securities industry's role in financing new productive forces and serving patient capital, favoring firms with strong retail brokerage and successful wealth management转型 amid increasing long-term capital inflows. The automotive sector averages a 3.5% pre-holiday gain. Guojin Securities notes that as provincial旧换新 subsidies are implemented, the auto market is expected to gradually recover. Looking at a shorter window from T-9 to T-7 days (the倒数第10 to倒数第8 trading days), the Shanghai Composite has上涨概率 over 65%, with non-bank financials, banking, and autos also exceeding 65%.

February 2026 has arrived, and as of January 30, nine securities firms have collectively recommended 67 stocks as their top picks for the month. Overall, these selections include both "established heavyweights" like banks, insurance, and non-ferrous metals, and "emerging growth stocks" focused on AI, electronics, and communications. Sector-wise, the 67 picks are primarily distributed across electronics, machinery, power equipment, basic chemicals, and communications, with the top three sectors each having no fewer than five picks. Non-ferrous metals has four, while non-bank financials, food & beverage, defense, and computers each have three. In January, these picks averaged a monthly gain exceeding 15%, significantly outperforming the Shanghai Composite. Over ten stocks, including Runze Technology, Zhongman Petroleum, and Huaxi Nonferrous Metals, surged more than 30%, whereas China Eastern Airlines, Dongpeng Beverage, China Merchants Bank, and China Tourism Group Duty Free all declined over 5%. In terms of institutional backing, ten stocks were recommended by two or more firms, including China Pacific Insurance, Wanhua Chemical, Zijin Mining, China Tourism Group Duty Free, and Zhongji Innolight. China Pacific Insurance received recommendations from three institutions. Ping An Securities highlighted its high dividends and yield, effective life insurance transformation with steady liability-side growth, and asset-side elasticity supported by stabilizing long-term rates and a结构性 equity market. Zhongtai Securities noted its improving fundamentals and strong valuation appeal. Wanhua Chemical also garnered three recommendations. Pacific Securities emphasized its position as the global largest MDI and TDI supplier, with established cost advantages in its石化板块 and potential for higher盈利中枢. Enhanced profitability and stability are expected from its完善 ethane fleet, port resources, and strategic partnerships with giants like ADNOC. China Tourism Group Duty Free and Zhongji Innolight each received two recommendations. Guojin Securities stated that China Tourism Group Duty Free strengthens its leading position through channel resources, supply chain capability, and brand power, gaining market share. Its recent acquisition of DFS Greater China accelerates overseas expansion with key store resources in Hong Kong and Macau. Zhongji Innolight, as an optical module leader, was recommended by Everbright Securities and Huatai Securities. Everbright Securities suggested maintaining stable positions over the holiday, anticipating a post-holiday rally, with a focus on growth opportunities across the AI产业链.

Regarding margin financing, as of January 29, the combined margin balance for these 67 picks exceeded 188 billion yuan, up over 20% from the end of 2025. Twenty-nine stocks saw their margin balances increase by more than 10%, with Runze Technology, Siyuan Electric, Zijin Mining, and Yunnan Aluminium all rising over 60%. Runze Technology's latest margin balance reached 3.618 billion yuan, more than doubling from end-2025. The large-scale data center operator benefits from significant scale and location advantages in Langfang. Zhongyuan Securities noted its delivery of two high-density data centers in 2025 and accelerated AIDC布局, positioning it to gain from 2026's AI application growth. Siyuan Electric's margin balance surged over 85%; the company is China's largest producer of arc suppression coils for power protection equipment. Further, among these 29 stocks, eight reported positive 2025 earnings forecasts (pre-increase or slight increase), with Runze Technology and Hunan Yuneng projecting net profit growth上限 exceeding 135%. Runze Technology's net profit growth上限 reached 196.03%, primarily due to non-recurring gains from a successful公募 REITs issuance. Hunan Yuneng's net profit growth上限 was 135.87%, with its margin balance up over 30%. Zhongyuan Securities attributed its超预期 Q4 2025 performance to rising industry chain prices. Harvey Precision, Lante Optics, Zijin Mining, and China Molybdenum all projected net profit growth上限 above 50%. China Molybdenum's margin balance rose over 55%; Ping An Securities highlighted growth potential from its Congo copper mine output and a favorable volume-price dynamic, suggesting potential valuation re-rating.