Abstract

Axalta Coating will report fourth-quarter fiscal results on February 10, 2026 Pre-Market, and investors expect modest top-line softness alongside resilient margins and EPS support from pricing and mix; this preview aggregates recent financial data and forecasts to frame likely outcomes and consensus risks.

Market Forecast

For the current quarter, Axalta Coating’s management and market indicators point to revenue near $1.27 billion, adjusted EPS around $0.61, and EBIT approximately $0.22 billion, with year-over-year revenue expected to decline by 2.61%, EPS to rise by 18.30%, and EBIT to increase by 5.52%. The company is likely to sustain a solid gross profit margin and a stable net profit margin, supported by price discipline and improved product mix, though exact margin forecasts are not formally disclosed in guidance. Performance Coatings remains the backbone, with stable demand in Refinish offsetting softness in Industrial; Mobility Coatings faces cyclical pressures but shows sequential stabilization. The most promising segment appears to be Performance Coatings, underpinned by pricing and higher-value formulations; last quarter, it generated $0.83 billion, and early indicators suggest resilient trends year-over-year from product mix improvements.

Last Quarter Review

Axalta Coating’s previous quarter delivered revenue of $1.29 billion, a gross profit margin of 34.94%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $0.11 billion, a net profit margin of 8.54%, and adjusted EPS of $0.67, with year-over-year adjusted EPS growth of 13.56% and revenue down 2.42% year-over-year. A notable highlight was the quarter-on-quarter growth in net profit attributable to the parent company at 0.92%, reflecting resilient profitability despite revenue headwinds. Main business performance was mixed: Performance Coatings contributed $0.83 billion, and Mobility Coatings contributed $0.46 billion, with Refinish stability partially offset by industrial demand moderation.

Current Quarter Outlook

Performance Coatings (Main Business)

Performance Coatings is Axalta Coating’s largest revenue contributor, with last quarter’s $0.83 billion reflecting the durability of the Refinish franchise and ongoing traction in premium formulations. For the upcoming quarter, pricing retention and mix optimization are pivotal drivers that can sustain mid-30% gross margin levels even as volumes fluctuate across geographies. On the demand side, body shop throughput and collision-related repair activity tend to be steady, providing a buffer against broader industrial weakness. Risk factors include potential normalization of pricing in certain markets and inventory rebalancing among distributors, which might weigh on short-term orders; however, Axalta Coating’s focus on product innovation and service support to repair networks should help preserve share and margin. The operating narrative is consistent with EBIT expansion despite revenue contraction, as the company continues to harvest prior price actions and capture efficiency gains.

Mobility Coatings (Most Promising Business)

Mobility Coatings, which delivered $0.46 billion last quarter, is positioned for gradual improvement as OEM schedules stabilize and new platform launches unfold. While year-over-year comparisons remain challenging, the sequential trajectory is improving due to better supply chain alignment and a more consistent cadence of automotive production in key regions. The segment’s margin outlook benefits from disciplined contract management and selective participation in programs with favorable economics; this supports EBIT resilience even if volumes lag. Near-term upside could come from content gains on newer vehicle platforms, adoption of advanced coatings technologies, and operational efficiencies embedded through recent footprint optimization. The primary risks are any sudden production cuts from large OEMs, regional mix shifts that dilute pricing, or input cost surprises; yet, the current data set suggests modest sequential lift, contributing to the company’s overarching EBIT growth forecast of 5.52%.

Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

The stock will likely be most sensitive to the interplay between revenue contraction and margin defense, especially the degree to which gross margin remains close to last quarter’s 34.94% in the face of softer volumes. EPS delivery versus the $0.61 benchmark is the second key catalyst; a beat on this metric would validate Axalta Coating’s pricing, mix, and cost control actions and could offset concerns about topline pressure. Finally, qualitative commentary on demand within Performance Coatings and order trends within Mobility Coatings will shape investor sentiment; signs of accelerating Refinish activity or sustained OEM production will be interpreted as supportive of the margin and EPS trajectory. Risks that could pressure the shares include a deeper-than-anticipated revenue decline, evidence of pricing erosion, or a reversal in quarter-on-quarter net profit momentum. Conversely, confirmation of margin stability and constructive order books would reinforce confidence in Axalta Coating’s path to profitable growth.

Analyst Opinions

Across accessible institutional commentary, the prevailing view is constructive, with the majority of opinions leaning bullish versus bearish. Analysts highlight Axalta Coating’s ability to protect margins through pricing and mix, noting that expected EPS growth of 18.30% year-over-year, despite a 2.61% revenue decline, points to operational discipline and improved EBIT efficiency. Some institutions emphasize that Performance Coatings continues to be a dependable cash generator, while Mobility Coatings offers optionality tied to OEM production stability and platform content gains. The bullish camp argues that management’s execution on cost initiatives, coupled with product innovation, positions the company to deliver on EBIT growth even in a choppy macro setting; they view the pre-announced ranges for revenue and EPS as attainable and skewed to potential upside if demand normalizes faster than expected. The minority bearish stance focuses on the negative revenue trajectory and the risk that price concessions or competitive dynamics could erode gross margin, warning that any miss on the $0.61 EPS estimate would recalibrate the valuation narrative. On balance, the constructive majority expects Axalta Coating to meet or modestly exceed EPS expectations and sustain mid-30% gross margin, while monitoring volume trends within Performance Coatings and production schedules impacting Mobility Coatings.