AI Progress "Slowing Down" - Should Markets Be Concerned?

Deep News
15 hours ago

Breakthrough advances in AI technology are showing signs of deceleration, but this may not necessarily be bad news for the numerous companies seeking to leverage this technology. Analysts point out that current AI tools are already powerful and practical enough, while most enterprises have yet to fully tap the potential of existing AI technologies. A temporary slowdown in technological development could actually provide companies with more time to adapt and integrate AI systems.

On August 24, media reports indicated that this summer, Meta Platforms, Inc. postponed the release of its flagship AI model Llama 4 Behemoth because engineers struggled to achieve significant improvements. OpenAI's latest model GPT-5 has similarly faced delays and failed to meet expectations after its release. These signs suggest that the development of large language models may be leveling off.

However, analysts believe that the slowdown in AI development could actually provide opportunities for enterprise adoption. Current AI technology is already powerful and practical enough to handle business needs such as text summarization, programming assistance, and email composition. Companies need more time to adapt to and integrate existing AI technologies rather than chase constantly upgrading models.

Meanwhile, although adjustments in AI technology development speed have begun affecting market sentiment, with tech giants like NVIDIA, Microsoft, and Meta Platforms, Inc. experiencing sell-offs last week, the increasing difficulty in improving AI model performance could actually extend the prosperity period for certain companies, particularly "shovel sellers" like NVIDIA, as AI giants will invest more resources to overcome technical challenges.

Leading AI Models Hit Development Bottlenecks

Leading enterprises in the AI field are facing unprecedented technical challenges.

Meta Platforms, Inc.'s originally planned Llama 4 Behemoth was forced into delay because the engineering team could not achieve expected performance improvements. This postponement reflects that even well-resourced tech giants have encountered technical ceilings in pushing AI model performance breakthroughs.

OpenAI's situation is equally concerning. GPT-5's release was not only delayed but its performance also failed to meet market expectations. Altman recently showed a rare realistic attitude at a media dinner, acknowledging that investor expectations for AI technology might be too high.

These signs indicate that the rapid iteration cycle of large language models may be slowing down, with AI technology development shifting from exponential growth to a more gradual improvement model.

Enterprise Applications Still in Early Stages

Despite the potential slowdown in AI development, this is not a major problem for enterprises attempting to integrate AI technology - it might even be good news. Generative AI is already powerful and practical enough in the commercial sphere to handle tasks such as large text summarization, assisting employees with programming, or writing emails.

However, most enterprises have not fully explored the potential of current AI technology applications. While some companies have rapidly deployed AI technology, many more are moving slowly. Corporate technology leaders worry about sensitive data leaking through chatbot conversations and remain cautious about letting AI handle critical decisions affecting finances, employees, and customers.

A recent MIT study found that enterprises have largely accepted ready-made generative AI tools from OpenAI and Microsoft. However, in building custom AI software to streamline operations - the type of applications most likely to generate real commercial returns - pilot projects have a failure rate as high as 95%.

The study authors noted that enterprise AI users "generally remain skeptical of custom or vendor-promoted AI tools, viewing them as fragile, over-engineered, or mismatched to actual workflows."

The corporate world clearly needs more time to understand AI technology, with work to adapt large language models to daily tasks still in its infancy. Michael Chui, a senior researcher at McKinsey's AI division, stated:

"If I want to increase the pace of innovation, reduce safety stock inventory, improve how I connect with millions of consumers, what you have to change goes far beyond 'here's a tool for a few employees to use.' All of these changes are very difficult."

This difficulty is both a management and technical challenge, meaning enterprise AI adoption will be a multi-decade effort. It's worth noting that while the internet transformed how people live and do business, it took far longer than 1990s enthusiasts expected.

According to Pew Research Center data, U.S. household broadband took ten years to go from nearly zero penetration in 2000 to over 60% of adults subscribing.

"Shovel Sellers" Like NVIDIA May Face Extended Boom Period

AI development won't stagnate. Even if the most advanced model providers encounter bottlenecks, people will still seek improvement methods, and the perception of slowing AI development might give companies more confidence to invest time and money, viewing it as a more stable target.

In the short term, perceptions that AI's rise may not be as rapid as expected have already caused tech stock volatility. NVIDIA, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta Platforms, Inc. saw sell-offs last week until Federal Reserve Chair Powell's hints about interest rate cuts triggered a rebound.

However, the increasing difficulty of improving AI model performance could actually extend the prosperity period for certain companies, particularly "shovel sellers" like NVIDIA. Major AI investors like Altman and Meta Platforms, Inc. CEO Mark Zuckerberg may invest even more money to overcome recent challenges.

Altman recently suggested that the solution to OpenAI's recent difficulties is to invest trillions more dollars in AI chips, as even the process of adapting models to real-world business tasks requires more incremental computing power.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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