The traditional business model in the baijiu industry is faltering as price structures collapse, yet new formats and models are emerging. Amid significant upheaval in the dairy sector, what strategies are companies like Yili and Feihe pursuing? On Douyin's health products track, dark horses are frequently appearing, with tactics constantly evolving... In the consumer market of 2025, new pathways for growth are becoming clearer amidst volatility and restructuring.
The year 2025 is witnessing a profound transformation in China's consumer market. The price of Feitian Moutai, a representative high-end baijiu, has continued to decline, casting doubt on its investment and hoarding appeal. Moutai's stock has even been dubbed "old man stock" by netizens. The popularity of this internet slang reflects shifting generational perceptions and highlights a key trend: Generation Z (born 1995-2009) has become the primary consumer force, whose habits and preferences are reshaping market rules. Under this trend, once-stable price systems are crumbling, and traditional channel models are becoming ineffective.
In this context, new consumption power led by younger generations is rapidly rising. They are not only reshaping demand and preferences but also driving the emergence of new business formats and models. Some companies, trapped by path dependency, struggle within the old order; others are reassessing their strategies and layouts, seeking to reach consumers more precisely, frequently, and directly.
**Collapsing Price Systems and Failing Old Channels** **Baijiu Industry Reconstructs Its Growth Logic**
For the baijiu industry, 2025 has been an exceptionally challenging year. Prices of major baijiu products have suffered significant setbacks. Feitian Moutai, known for its price resilience, repeatedly fell below key psychological barriers. The wholesale price for loose bottles of Feitian Moutai dropped from over 2,200 yuan per bottle at the start of the year, successively breaking through the 2,000 yuan and 1,900 yuan marks, and even fell below 1,500 yuan by the end of December 2025. Other premium products like the Eighth Generation Wuliangye and Gujiao 1573 also saw notable declines, the largest in recent years. The wholesale price of Junpin Xijiu fell to 628 yuan per bottle, with promotional prices on e-commerce platforms dipping below 700 yuan.
With high-end prices weakening, sub-premium and mid-to-high-end baijiu followed suit with price reductions, making price inversions commonplace in the market. E-commerce platform prices continually breached the "bottom lines" of major distilleries' pricing systems.
The chill from the price collapse has reached corporate performance. In the first three quarters of 2025, listed baijiu companies faced their most severe performance downturn in nearly a decade. Combined revenue for 20 A-share listed baijiu firms was 3177.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.90%. Combined net profit attributable to shareholders was 1225.71 billion yuan, down 6.93% year-on-year. Full-year results may be worse. As of February 10, nine listed baijiu companies had issued earnings forecasts, with four anticipating losses. The other five, while still profitable, saw significant declines in net profit attributable to parents, all dropping over 50%, with one company forecasting a decline exceeding 363.1%.
Amid these difficulties, some distilleries are seeking solutions through leadership changes, exploring new models, and betting on new channels. Personnel changes in 2025 were frequent and extensive, involving over ten leading companies including Moutai, Yanghe, Xijiu, Fenjiu, and Jinsha Distillery, with adjustments affecting core positions like Chairman and General Manager.
As conventional measures like "controlling volume to adjust price" lost effectiveness, some companies began breaking tradition. In early October 2025, Xijiu颠覆ed the traditional "payment before delivery" model, trialing "delivery before payment" and a "commission system" for new products. Wu Xiangdong, Chairman of Zhenjiu Lidou Group, began building his personal IP, becoming the most active private distillery owner in 2025. Kweichow Moutai Co.,Ltd. is also adapting. On December 28, at its 2026 National Distributor Conference, it announced several measures: restructuring its product portfolio back to a "pyramid" shape, adjusting pricing strategies to let prices follow the market, and eliminating the distribution model for high-value-added products in channels. On December 30, further specifics were announced: starting January 1, 2026, mainstream Moutai products, including Feitian Moutai, would be sold at the official guide price on the "i Moutai" app.
With traditional channels sluggish, major distilleries are embracing instant retail for new growth. Kweichow Moutai Co.,Ltd. deepened cooperation with Taobao Quick Purchase, launching over 1,000 official stores offering "30-minute delivery," and the "i Moutai" app officially added an "instant delivery" function. For baijiu companies, instant retail offers direct consumer connection. Traditional distributors risk marginalization, while platforms controlling user data gain stronger leverage.
Conversely, in a bleak year for traditional baijiu consumption, "health-preserving baijiu" surged by 66%. Jingjiu, capitalizing on this trend, expects full-year growth around 20%, having gained over 9 million new young users in two years, including 4 million female users.
The changes within the 2025 baijiu industry reveal a clear theme: those who can get closer to consumers and better understand their needs will be the first to navigate through this cycle successfully.