Abstract

Daiwa Securities Group, Inc. will report results on April 26, 2026 Post Market; our preview flags a flat-to-modest revenue improvement supported by client activity and stable margins, with attention on Wealth Management fees, Global Markets trading velocity, and any commentary on the issuance pipeline for the new fiscal year.

Market Forecast

Market-wide published forecasts for Daiwa Securities Group, Inc. are limited for this quarter; based on recent run-rate trends and the company’s last reported mix, we expect a modest year-over-year revenue uptick around the mid-single-digit area, with margins broadly stable and adjusted EPS tracking near recent quarterly levels as cost discipline offsets seasonality and market-volume variability. No formal company-issued guidance on revenue, gross profit margin, net profit margin, or adjusted EPS was available for this quarter within the review window.

The main business remains anchored by fee and spread income from client franchises, with Wealth Management and Global Markets & Investment Banking contributing the bulk of group revenues and Asset Management adding recurring fees that stabilize the top line across market cycles. The segment with the clearest near-term momentum potential is Wealth Management, which delivered 62.91 billion US dollars last quarter on our consolidation of the business breakdown; sustained client engagement and advisory volumes will define its trajectory this quarter.

Last Quarter Review

In the most recent reported quarter, Daiwa Securities Group, Inc. generated approximately 146.72 billion US dollars in revenue by our aggregation of segment detail, delivered a gross profit margin of 90.89%, posted GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of 46.46 billion US dollars with a net profit margin of 23.93%, and reported adjusted EPS of 2.15 US dollars, down 11.16% year over year.

A key financial highlight was the slight quarter-on-quarter contraction in net profit, down 2.65%, reflecting seasonal normalization after a strong prior period and a more balanced revenue mix. On business mix, Wealth Management contributed 62.91 billion US dollars, Global Markets & Investment Banking delivered 49.83 billion US dollars, Asset Management posted 28.21 billion US dollars, and Other segments added 10.73 billion US dollars, before a 4.96 billion US dollars inter-segment elimination; year-over-year growth by segment was not disclosed in the data window.

Current Quarter Outlook

Wealth Management

We expect Wealth Management to remain the stabilizer of group performance this quarter. The most recent quarter’s 62.91 billion US dollars in revenue underscores the size of the franchise and its sensitivity to client risk appetite, recurring fees, and transactional flows. Into April, client cash sorting, equity allocation shifts, and advisory pipelines tend to firm as the new fiscal year begins, which historically supports commissions and fee-based revenue. While we do not have company-issued numerical guidance within the window, our base case assumes flat to modestly higher client activity versus the immediately preceding quarter given typical seasonality. If market volatility remains orderly, advisory and brokerage volumes should hold up, while any pronounced equity market advances could unlock incremental flows into discretionary mandates. Cost control remains a lever: if the franchise maintains expense discipline, segment margins can remain broadly stable even if headline revenue growth is modest. We will watch for any commentary on net new asset trends and product mix, as these often foreshadow medium-term fee run-rate changes.

Global Markets & Investment Banking

Global Markets & Investment Banking, which printed 49.83 billion US dollars last quarter, is the swing segment for revenue variability this quarter. Trading and execution income correlates with volume and volatility, while underwriting and advisory hinge on the depth of the deal calendar. After a seasonally active period, we expect a more selective environment for primary issuance early in the fiscal year; however, backlog conversion in equity and debt capital markets can still provide pockets of strength if valuation windows remain open. On the markets side, moderate volatility without disorder tends to sustain client hedging and rebalancing, which supports flow revenues. A flattening or gradual steepening of the yield curve can also influence fixed-income facilitation income and inventory marks; we expect management to emphasize risk-weighted balance sheet deployment and turnover to maintain returns. Fee capture per deal is likely to remain disciplined, with emphasis on repeat corporate clients and cross-border mandates that favor advisory revenue resilience. The quarter’s outcome will thus be most sensitive to trading volumes, bid-ask dynamics, and the cadence of announced and priced deals across ECM and DCM.

Key stock-price drivers this quarter

The stock’s near-term reaction will likely hinge on three factors: revenue trajectory versus the most recent run-rate, expense containment, and qualitative commentary on the forward deal pipeline. First, even a small outperformance against a flat-to-modest revenue baseline could be well received, particularly if it comes with confirmation that client activity is healthy across Wealth Management and markets execution. Second, investors will scrutinize the cost line for evidence that productivity measures can protect margins while maintaining client service capacity; stable or better gross margin alongside flat revenue would support earnings quality. Third, tone on the primary issuance and advisory backlog will inform the next few quarters; a constructive pipeline update could broaden confidence in Global Markets & Investment Banking revenue durability, whereas a cautious tone would anchor expectations nearer to a maintenance scenario. Across all of this, any color on capital return discipline and balance-sheet risk appetite will shape sentiment, as it contextualizes earnings quality and capacity for dividends or buybacks.

Analyst Opinions

Within the January 1, 2026 to April 19, 2026 window, published forward-looking previews specific to Daiwa Securities Group, Inc. were limited; one notable item in that period highlighted quarterly EPS of 2.15 US dollars with year-over-year contraction and sales growth to 2.43 billion US dollars, but explicit directional previews for the upcoming quarter were sparse. Among commentary that can be reasonably interpreted for the to-be-reported quarter, the balance of views leans neutral, with neither clearly bullish nor clearly bearish stances dominating; we therefore treat the prevailing institutional tone as neutral for the purposes of this preview. The neutral stance reflects expectations for stable margins, an orderly revenue mix, and sensitivity to volumes in markets and issuance, rather than a strong directional call.

We interpret this neutral majority as emphasizing execution risk management and confirmation bias around recent run-rate metrics. Commentary circling client activity suggests that steady Wealth Management fees can anchor the quarter even if trading intensity normalizes from prior peaks. At the same time, observers point to the importance of the underwriting calendar and cross-border advisory in shaping upside optionality; a constructive pipeline update could tilt perceptions more positively, while a muted tone would keep estimates near current levels. The focus on expense discipline is a common thread: maintaining gross margin around recent levels while absorbing any variability in Global Markets revenue would validate the neutral stance. The result is a consensus that the print may be a validation quarter rather than a surprise quarter, keeping attention on the guidance and qualitative color for the new fiscal year.