The October contract settlement price was approximately 1,161.63 points, with the three-phase SCFIS index consistently exceeding earlier market expectations. The reasons can be categorized as follows:

1. **Impact of Random Factors on Samples**: Unlike the delayed high-priced voyages of the OCEAN alliance in the 2506 contract, the 2510 contract saw more delays in low-priced voyages, leading to a disproportionately high representation of OCEAN alliance high-priced voyages in the samples.

2. **Potential Exclusion of Low-Priced Offline Quotes**: Low-priced freight rates from offline channels (e.g., sea bills, freight forwarder quotes) may not have been included in the SCFIS sampling. Possible exclusions involve: - **Non-reasonable rate removal**: If freight forwarder quotes are lower than carrier quotes for duplicate bills, the forwarder data is discarded. - **Outlier elimination**: The top and bottom 10% of freight rates by volume are excluded.

According to Linerlytica’s weekly reports (Weeks 41–43), late October offline quotes were as low as $1,300–1,400/FEU. While these rates have had limited impact on SCFIS so far, they may reinforce shippers’ reluctance to accept higher rates, maintaining a bargaining stance seen throughout 2025.

**Market Dynamics in November**: - **Early November**: High capacity and intensified competition between the Gemini and Premier alliances (HMM, ONE, Yang Ming) for the lowest market rates (~$1,900/FEU). - **Key Question**: How sensitive are shippers to rising costs? A jump from $1,300–1,400/FEU to $1,900/FEU may be tolerable, but the threshold for resistance remains unclear.

**Vessel Schedule Analysis (Shanghai-based weekly count, Week 44 = Late October)**: - **Early November (Weeks 45–46)**: - Gemini Alliance (AE3 route, originally ESTELLE MAERSK): 1 cancellation. - OCEAN Alliance: 2 cancellations. - Premier Alliance & MSC: 1 cancellation. - **Late November (Weeks 47–48)**: Cancellations concentrated in the OCEAN Alliance.

This pattern resembles July–August dynamics, where Gemini and Premier alliances faced higher cargo pressure than the OCEAN Alliance, which actively managed capacity. This could lead to mid-November rate hikes but with diverging commitment levels among alliances.

**December Outlook**: - High overall capacity, with potential delays of Premier Alliance voyages to January. - The traditionally tight supply-demand balance in December–January warrants close monitoring.

**Current Observations**: - Low offline rates in late October have not significantly impacted SCFIS, possibly due to sampling methodology. However, they influence shippers’ tolerance for rate hikes, similar to the August–September Trans-Pacific trend. - **Late November**: OCEAN Alliance’s aggressive cancellations create room for a year-end rate push. - **Early November**: Gemini and Premier alliances compete for the lowest rates, while late-November cancellations may strain cargo pressure and rate-hike consistency.

**Long-Term Contract Implications**: Shippers retain strong bargaining power in 2025, with rates well below 2024 levels. Annual contract rates are unlikely to match 2024 highs. If the industry accepts this, fragile consensus may quickly unravel.

**Trading Strategy**: EC contracts are in wide fluctuation, offering limited high-value opportunities. Watch for corrections after near-term rate hike announcements and market sentiment shifts.

Researcher: Chen Yuhao Futures Trading Advisory License: Z0019939