Abstract

Badger Meter will report fourth-quarter results on January 28, 2026 Pre-Market; this preview summarizes the latest quarter’s actuals, consensus expectations for revenue, margins, and EPS this quarter, and the dominant analyst perspective from recent institutional commentary.

Market Forecast

Consensus points to higher top-line and earnings this quarter for Badger Meter, with revenue projected at $232.04 million, EBIT at $42.96 million, and EPS at $1.17, implying year-over-year growth of 14.74%, 16.14%, and 6.62%, respectively. The latest model implies continued margin resilience, but an explicit gross margin estimate is not available; the company’s revenue mix is expected to remain favorable, supporting an improved net margin versus last year, though a precise figure is not provided. Badger Meter’s core revenue base remains weighted toward metering and smart water technologies with growing software and analytics contribution, and continued adoption trends form the central theme for this quarter’s outlook. The most promising area is the software and recognized-over-time solutions set, which has been expanding as utilities scale deployments and convert to longer-term service models.

Last Quarter Review

Badger Meter’s prior quarter delivered solid performance with revenue of $235.65 million, a gross profit margin of 40.67%, GAAP net income attributable to shareholders of $35.08 million, a net profit margin of 14.89%, and adjusted EPS of $1.19, showing year-over-year expansion. A key highlight was sequential earnings growth, with net income up 1.43% quarter-on-quarter alongside sustained gross margin strength that reflected favorable product mix and pricing discipline. Main business momentum was anchored by the recognized-at-a-point metering and smart water products at $211.46 million revenue, complemented by recognized-over-time services of $24.19 million; both benefited from steady utility investment cycles and ongoing upgrade activity.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Main metering and smart water solutions

The core metering hardware and integrated smart water systems remain the company’s largest revenue engine, supported by utility infrastructure investment cycles and replacement needs. The revenue guide of $232.04 million implies a modest sequential step-down from the prior quarter’s seasonal peak yet keeps year-over-year growth robust, aligning with historical patterns where utility shipments can skew by quarter. Margin durability should be aided by a mix leaning to higher value AMI endpoints and analytics-enabled devices, even if factory utilization normalizes seasonally. Investors will monitor order conversion rates and any commentary on lead times; a clean conversion this quarter would underpin confidence in continued revenue visibility into the next fiscal year.

Software, analytics, and recognized-over-time services

The recognized-over-time category, which encapsulates software, analytics, and service models, remains the company’s most promising growth vector. While the prior quarter’s $24.19 million contribution was smaller than the hardware base, the structural growth profile is attractive due to recurring characteristics and upselling potential to installed endpoints. This quarter, year-over-year growth in services is expected to benefit from additional utility software activations and broader analytics adoption, which can support blended gross margin by layering higher-margin software against hardware shipments. Watch for attach-rate commentary and expansion of multi-year service agreements; any inflection here can translate to more predictable revenue and potentially higher valuation sensitivity.

Key stock-price drivers this quarter

Three variables are likely to shape share performance in the print and guide: revenue growth cadence versus the $232.04 million estimate, gross margin trajectory relative to the prior quarter’s 40.67%, and EPS conversion near the $1.17 mark. Any upside surprise in gross margin could flow disproportionately to EPS given operating leverage, especially if operating expenses track seasonally. On the other hand, if mix shifts back toward lower-margin devices or if there are transient supply-chain costs, the margin could compress, tempering EPS relative to expectations despite healthy revenue growth. Management’s qualitative commentary on 2026 demand, utility budget health, and pipeline conversions will be scrutinized for confirmation of sustained mid-teens growth potential.

Analyst Opinions

Recent institutional commentary and ratings tilts positive, with the balance of views leaning bullish over bearish. Analysts emphasizing the smart water adoption curve expect continued double-digit revenue growth and solid mid-40s incremental margins as software and analytics scale, which underpins confidence in the $1.17 EPS estimate for the quarter. Positive views highlight robust order trends, disciplined pricing, and a mix favorable to AMI and analytics, while also noting the potential for recurring revenue expansion to improve earnings quality. On the risk side, a minority of cautious voices cite normalization after strong multi-quarter execution and typical seasonality, but the majority perspective anticipates in-line to modestly above-consensus delivery driven by a healthy utility spending backdrop and ongoing technology upgrades.