IBM has systematically detailed its quantum computing technology pathway, positioning superconducting qubits as the leading solution for universal quantum computing. The company has set clear milestones: achieving quantum advantage by 2026 and realizing fault-tolerant computation by 2029, providing the market with its most actionable technical timeline to date.

At the "Quantum Unleash 1.0" investor event hosted by Barclays on February 20, Dr. Alessandro Curioni, Vice President and IBM Fellow at IBM Research Europe & Africa, elaborated on IBM's quantum computing strategy. He stated that the industry has entered a "utility-scale" phase from 2024 to 2025. Systems equipped with approximately 100 qubits and a two-qubit error rate nearing 10⁻³ have already surpassed the simulation capabilities of classical computers. The next-generation Nighthawk processor, expected in 2026, will support a "clean, strict, and provable" quantum advantage. The fault-tolerant system anticipated for 2029 is poised to be a genuine technological inflection point.

Barclays analysts Laia Marin i Sola and Rohan Bahl believe that recent breakthroughs in error rate control, scalability, and classical integration make these timelines realistically achievable. They noted in a report that investors who deeply understand the complete quantum computing supply chain and its impact on the semiconductor industry will be better positioned to capitalize on technological breakthroughs while effectively managing associated risks.

Regarding application prospects, quantum advantage is expected to materialize first in materials and chemistry, with complex optimization scenarios in finance and logistics also standing to benefit. Dr. Curioni predicts that the maturation of fault-tolerant systems in 2029 will trigger a quantum "ChatGPT moment" for multi-objective optimization across various industries, subsequently leading to profound breakthroughs in engineering materials and drug discovery.

**Insight One: Superconducting Qubits – The Dominant Path to Universal Quantum Computing**

Dr. Curioni emphasized that discussing quantum computing first requires clarifying the concept of "universal quantum computation"—machines that use continuous quantum states rather than binary bits to represent information, with their representational capacity expanding exponentially as the number of qubits increases.

IBM has selected superconducting qubits as its core technology route for three key reasons: In terms of quality, the single-qubit error rate has improved significantly, dropping from 10⁻¹ to 10⁻⁴ over six years. Regarding scalability, superconducting qubits can be manufactured using mature lithography processes, making them highly compatible with existing semiconductor production lines. In speed, their gate operation times are thousands of times faster than competing approaches like ion traps or neutral atoms. Dr. Curioni believes that compatibility with semiconductor manufacturing and decades of accumulated microwave engineering expertise give superconducting qubits a structural advantage in the race towards practical universal quantum computers.

**Insight Two: Engineering Challenges Replace Physical Bottlenecks**

Dr. Curioni pointed out that the core obstacle to scaling quantum processors has shifted from the physical to the engineering domain. IBM has steadily improved quantum coherence times, reduced error rates, and advanced packaging technologies, including transitioning from wire bonding to high-density ribbon connections and three-dimensional architectures.

Current primary engineering challenges include: increasing control line density within cryogenic systems, managing heat loads at 10 millikelvin temperatures, maintaining uniformity and yield as quantum processors scale to hundreds or even thousands of qubits, and integrating control electronics capable of operating in extreme environments. Dr. Curioni stated that these challenges align closely with the core expertise of the semiconductor industry. IBM's accumulated knowledge in lithography, materials engineering, cryogenics, and microwave control provides a credible technical pathway for the commercialization of large-scale quantum processors.

**Insight Three: Quantum Advantage by 2026, Fault-Tolerant Computing by 2029**

IBM's technology roadmap unfolds in three phases. The current phase is "utility-scale," where quantum systems can already perform specific tasks beyond the simulation capabilities of classical computers.

The year 2026 is identified as a critical milestone. IBM plans to achieve quantum advantage through its next-generation Nighthawk processor, which will integrate more couplers, support deeper circuits, and execute up to 5,000 gate operations. IBM has also established strict public evaluation criteria and an open "Quantum Advantage Tracker" to ensure transparency, reproducibility, and independent verification of results.

Looking ahead to 2029, IBM anticipates achieving fault-tolerant quantum computation. Systems are expected to feature approximately 200 logical qubits capable of executing around 100 million gate operations—an improvement of roughly two orders of magnitude compared to the current 5,000 operations. Dr. Curioni characterizes this milestone as the true inflection point where quantum systems will begin to deliver transformative impact.

**Insight Four: Quantum-Classical Hybrid Computing Will Drive New Demand for Computational Power**

Dr. Curioni explicitly stated that classical and quantum computing will coexist for the long term rather than replace each other. Classical computing holds an irreplaceable advantage in arithmetic operations like multiplication, while quantum computing excels at tasks such as factoring large numbers, which classical computers cannot handle efficiently.

Notably, quantum computing itself requires support from classical computational power—especially in the decoding phase of error correction. The demand for classical computing power is expected to increase significantly for future fault-tolerant systems. Dr. Curioni believes the next major wave of innovation will stem from hybrid quantum-classical algorithms, which place extremely high demands on communication latency between the quantum processor and CPUs/GPUs. It is this integration need that recently drove IBM's collaboration with AMD, pushing the industry towards tightly coupled, co-designed unified computing architectures that treat classical and quantum processing power as an integrated computing stack.

**Insight Five: Chemistry and Optimization to Experience a "ChatGPT Moment" Around 2029**

Regarding the application rollout path, Dr. Curioni judges that the earliest domains to achieve quantum advantage will be materials science and chemistry, as quantum physics naturally aligns with the core problems in these fields. Complex optimization problems in finance and logistics also hold significant potential, as classical algorithms face severe scalability bottlenecks in such scenarios. Quantum methods are expected to achieve qualitative breakthroughs in global optimization, resource allocation, and multi-variable decision-making.

IBM's strategic focus is shifting from isolated use cases to covering four major algorithm classes: dynamical systems and partial differential equations, Hamiltonian systems and linear algebra, combinatorial optimization, and stochastic processes. These four categories collectively form the core of enterprise-level critical business computations.

Dr. Curioni predicts that the true "ChatGPT moment" for quantum computing will arrive around 2029. At that time, fault-tolerant systems are expected to achieve transformative breakthroughs in multi-objective optimization problems across various industries, including finance, logistics, and energy, subsequently paving the way for revolutionary advances in engineering materials, chemistry, and new drug development.