Amidst months of conflict in Iran, Middle Eastern oil producers have relied on a clandestine "dark shipping" network to continuously funnel crude oil to global markets. This steady flow has been a key factor preventing international oil prices from the sharp surge many feared when the war began.
According to a Monday report, informed sources reveal that despite frequent attacks on vessels, the secret transport of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz, with cargo transfers taking place in the Gulf of Oman, is ongoing. These sources indicate that the actual volume being shipped exceeds the widely estimated 400,000 barrels per day.
U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated last week that approximately 9 million barrels per day were transported through the Strait of Hormuz over the past seven days, a figure that surprised many traders. This covert activity, combined with pipeline alternatives, strategic stockpile releases, and declining global demand, has kept Brent crude oil futures for August in the $80 to $90 per barrel range. This price level is significantly lower than the $150 per barrel some analysts predicted at the start of the conflict, easing market concerns about energy-driven inflation.
Transport Volume Exceeds Market Expectations
Before the Iran war, about 20 million barrels of crude oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz daily, representing roughly one-fifth of the global oil supply. While traffic through this chokepoint has fallen sharply since the conflict began, actual flows are higher than the market had anticipated. The 9 million barrels per day figure disclosed by Secretary Wright is at the high end of various estimates and is nearly half of the pre-conflict volume. Insiders further note that the actual transport volume exceeds the commonly estimated 400,000 barrels per day, but the "dark fleet" vessels involved deliberately hide their movements, making it difficult for traders and analysts to accurately gauge the scale.
Ship tracking data aggregated by Bloomberg, along with data from Kpler and Vortexa, shows that in addition to the United Arab Emirates, crude oil from Iraq, Qatar, and Kuwait is also being shipped through the Strait of Hormuz in a similar manner.
Shuttle Trade Gathers in the Gulf of Oman
The core hub of this transport system is the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz off the coast of Oman. According to data from the European Union's Sentinel-1 satellite, approximately 150 vessels are currently anchored in the area, including supertankers and bulk carriers, compared to just 40 ships in January of this year. The number of vessels anchored near Sohar in the Gulf of Oman has also surged since the conflict in Iran began. Most of these ships are waiting to receive cargo from transporters that have crossed the Strait of Hormuz with their transponders turned off, before transferring it to larger tankers for the onward journey to global markets. This "shuttle trade" model has been operating for months and forms the core of the wartime energy supply chain.
Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), the state-owned oil giant of the UAE, stated, "Despite repeated attacks on our vessels, we remain determined to continue our responsibility of safely supplying energy to global markets and doing our utmost to meet customer demand and commitments." The company has sold approximately 135 million barrels of crude oil to global buyers and launched a new sales round last week.
High Costs and Persistent Risks of Transport
Insiders emphasize that the current situation is far from normal for Middle Eastern oil producers. People familiar with the traffic through the Strait of Hormuz say that the number of maritime incidents is far greater than what has been publicly disclosed. These include both attacks on commercial vessels and defensive actions by Western forces against harassing ships attempting to disrupt the passage of cargo ships.
ADNOC also acknowledged, "Like other energy companies in the region, we continue to bear the direct consequences of unprovoked attacks on our employees, vessels, and facilities. These attacks not only increase the risks faced by our staff, contractors, and seafarers but also disrupt critical energy flows." Several seafarers have lost their lives while transiting the Strait of Hormuz, and oil spills in the region are also on the rise. Satellite images released last week revealed an oil slick in the Gulf of Oman, though its source could not be determined, once again highlighting the high level of secrecy surrounding these covert operations. People familiar with the UAE's crude oil transport say that even after the UAE recently reported another attack on its vessels by Iran, there is little sign of a slowdown in transport activity.
Traders and analysts point out that the continued flow of wartime crude oil is a major reason why Brent crude futures have remained in the $80 to $90 per barrel range for most of August. This is far below the most pessimistic forecasts from the early days of the war, when some predicted oil prices could reach $150 per barrel if the conflict dragged on through the summer. In addition to the "dark shipping" network, other factors such as pipeline alternatives that bypass the conflict zone, the release of strategic stockpiles by various countries, and declining global demand have collectively created multiple buffers that have suppressed oil prices. These combined factors have significantly limited the war's impact on the global economy and eased market fears of energy-driven inflation.