CLSA has revised its earnings projections for HENDERSON LAND (00012) downward by 29.8% and 28.3% for the current and next fiscal years, respectively. However, the brokerage has shifted to a net asset value discount valuation method and raised the target price from HK$23.1 to HK$30.6, supported by improved sentiment in the property market. The firm maintains a "Hold" rating on the stock. The new target price implies a 54.4% discount to net asset value, which is 0.5 standard deviations above the five-year average discount. Last year, HENDERSON LAND's underlying profit and dividend per share fell 21% and 26% below market consensus, primarily due to a lack of significant gains from asset disposals, as management expressed caution regarding the macroeconomic environment. Nevertheless, with Hong Kong home prices recovering, stabilized occupancy rates in its mainland property portfolio, and a low base for asset sales, the unexpected decline likely signals that earnings have bottomed out. CLSA views the reduction in dividend per share as a one-time event. While the lower-than-expected dividend may exert short-term pressure on the share price, the focus of valuation is expected to shift toward net asset value as Hong Kong's property market enters a normalization cycle.