Abstract

Trip.com Group Limited will report quarterly results on February 25, 2026 Pre-Market; this preview synthesizes the company’s latest financials, near-term forecasts, and institutional perspectives to frame expectations for revenue, margins, net income, and adjusted EPS.

Market Forecast

Based on the most recent guidance and compiled estimates, Trip.com Group Limited’s current-quarter revenue is projected at USD 14.86 billion, implying 20.68% year-over-year growth, with EBIT at USD 3.15 billion (up 21.43% year-over-year) and adjusted EPS estimated at 4.65 (up 20.94% year-over-year). While margin guidance is not explicitly provided for the quarter, the company’s last reported gross profit margin was 81.68% and net profit margin was 108.46%, offering a high bar for comparison against the expected revenue and earnings trajectory; the emphasis remains on sustaining elevated profitability as top-line growth normalizes and mix shifts.

The main business continues to be anchored by accommodation booking and transportation ticketing, with steady demand for core booking services and ancillary offerings; visibility is enhanced by promotional campaigns and product partnerships that sustain conversion and engagement. The most promising segment remains accommodation booking, which delivered USD 8.05 billion in revenue last quarter and benefited from 15.53% year-over-year growth at the group level, positioning it to capture incremental gains as cross-border demand and product breadth progress throughout the current quarter.

Last Quarter Review

Trip.com Group Limited’s previous quarter delivered revenue of USD 18.34 billion, a gross profit margin of 81.68%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of USD 19.89 billion, a net profit margin of 108.46%, and adjusted EPS of 27.56, with year-over-year growth of 15.53% for revenue and 214.97% for adjusted EPS. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, net profit rose by 310.44%, underscoring the strength of operating leverage and profitability in the period.

A key highlight was the aggregate beat on top- and bottom-line expectations: revenue exceeded prior estimates by USD 175.34 million while adjusted EPS outpaced the estimate substantially, indicating resilient profitability. Within main businesses, accommodation booking generated USD 8.05 billion and transportation ticketing delivered USD 6.31 billion, supported by packaged travel of USD 1.61 billion and corporate travel of USD 756.00 million; the mix showed robust conversion and breadth, tracking 15.53% year-over-year growth at the group level.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Accommodation Booking and Core Commerce

Accommodation booking remains the core revenue driver, providing both scale and margin support thanks to product breadth, merchandising, and loyalty benefits. In the current quarter, the segment enters with a tailwind from promotional activations, inventory depth, and ongoing conversion enhancements, which together support the 20.68% year-over-year revenue growth implied by the consolidated forecast. The reported last-quarter revenue base for accommodation booking of USD 8.05 billion gives the segment significant leverage to translate volume into incremental EBIT, consistent with the forecasted EBIT growth of 21.43% year-over-year.

Margin considerations are central. With a last-reported gross margin of 81.68% and net margin of 108.46%, pricing discipline and mix optimization in accommodation booking are key to sustaining high profitability. Improvements in merchandising and cross-sell uptake across app and web funnels should support conversion at acceptable marketing cost per acquisition, forming a bridge to the adjusted EPS estimate of 4.65 (+20.94% year-over-year). The segment’s execution risk centers on the balance between promotional intensity and margin preservation; careful calibration of discount structures and partner-funded offers helps mitigate margin dilution while sustaining near-term demand.

Transportation Ticketing and Ancillary Growth

Transportation ticketing contributed USD 6.31 billion last quarter, establishing a strong baseline for the current period’s top-line build. The segment typically reflects demand elasticity across air, rail, and other transport categories, which aligns with EBIT and EPS expectations that are trending up 21.43% and 20.94% year-over-year, respectively. Promotional campaigns and co-marketing arrangements — such as the January activations with Singapore Airlines and Mastercard in Australia — increase funnel throughput and value capture, particularly when combined with curated fare content and inventory access.

In this quarter, the interplay between fare availability, time-to-departure pricing windows, and route reopening dynamics will influence booking momentum. Ancillary services attached to transport (e.g., upsells, insurance, transfers) provide additional monetization vectors that help smooth revenue variability, supporting the consolidated revenue forecast of USD 14.86 billion (+20.68% year-over-year). Execution hinges on optimizing partner collaboration and dynamic pricing to keep conversion high without excessive couponing; this underpins the drive to protect margins while growing volumes.

Packaged Travel and Corporate Travel

Packaged travel posted USD 1.61 billion last quarter, and corporate travel delivered USD 756.00 million. These segments are structurally important for complementing the core booking engine with curated experiences, itinerary management, and enterprise solutions. In the current quarter, packaged travel benefits from integrated product placement and better personalization, while corporate travel leverages account management and policy compliance tools to expand share of wallet among existing clients.

Both segments contribute to revenue resilience by diversifying the demand base and enhancing cross-sell opportunities, consistent with the overall year-over-year growth trajectory. With EBIT projected at USD 3.15 billion (+21.43% year-over-year) and adjusted EPS at 4.65 (+20.94% year-over-year), packaged and corporate segments can improve unit economics through better attachment rates and operational scalability. The tactical focus includes enhancing itinerary customization, broadening inventory breadth (including local activities), and aligning enterprise needs with platform capabilities to bolster repeat usage and margin mix.

Factors Most Impacting the Stock Price This Quarter

The first factor is revenue delivery versus expectations, specifically whether the company posts revenue near the USD 14.86 billion forecast with year-over-year growth of 20.68% and exhibits supportive margin performance relative to last quarter’s 81.68% gross margin. The second is earnings quality: EBIT of USD 3.15 billion (+21.43% year-over-year) and adjusted EPS of 4.65 (+20.94% year-over-year) set a performance bar; beats or misses against these markers typically drive post-earnings stock moves. The third is updates on promotions and partnerships that may affect demand cadence and marketing efficiency; sustained program engagement from airlines and payment partners enhances top-line visibility and can strengthen EBIT conversion.

A further consideration is regulatory developments in relevant markets. For example, in late January there were headlines around a Turkish industry group’s legal actions toward multiple global platforms, including Trip.com Group Limited; while not a defined financial impact at this stage, investors will watch for any operational or compliance updates. Finally, the company’s commentary on booking trends and product monetization across accommodation, transport, and packaged travel — including conversion rates and attachment metrics — will influence sentiment on durability of growth and the trajectory of margins into the next reporting cycle.

Analyst Opinions

The ratio of bullish versus bearish opinions in our collected sample is decisively tilted toward the bullish side; we identified numerous buy ratings and no explicit sell calls during the six-month window, making the majority view clearly constructive. Several well-known institutions affirmed positive stances: Barclays maintained a Buy rating on Trip.com Group Limited Sponsored ADR with a USD 90.00 price target on November 19, 2025, emphasizing ongoing momentum in core booking profitability and execution strength. Jefferies kept a Buy rating with a Hong Kong dollar target of HKD 685.00 in mid-November 2025, underscoring product breadth and conversion advantages across accommodation and transport categories.

J.P. Morgan reiterated its Buy rating on November 19, 2025 with a HKD 700.00 target, focusing on scale efficiencies and revenue durability through promotional cycles. Macquarie sustained its Buy rating on November 25, 2025 with a HKD 631.80 target, highlighting strategic progress in international product curation and the platform’s ability to support high-attachment itineraries. Benchmark Co. maintained a Buy rating with a USD 82.00 target during the period, and a Bank of America analyst expressed support for the trajectory by revisiting a positive stance contingent on strong performance and international expansion strategy.

The majority view centers on several core points relevant for this quarter’s print. First, revenue delivery is expected to be robust relative to the USD 14.86 billion forecast, with institutional reviewers focusing on the sustainability of growth given promotions and partner campaigns. Second, earnings quality — specifically EBIT at USD 3.15 billion (+21.43% year-over-year) and adjusted EPS at 4.65 (+20.94% year-over-year) — is seen as achievable if margin management remains disciplined; the last quarter’s strong gross margin and net margin establish a high baseline, and analysts look for commentary that balances growth with marketing efficiency.

Third, the outlook on accommodation booking as the most promising segment is widely shared among bullish institutions; the last quarter’s USD 8.05 billion revenue base suggests potential to leverage product breadth and loyalty features to drive incremental EBIT and EPS conversion this quarter. Fourth, transportation ticketing is expected to benefit from curated fare content and co-marketing momentum with airlines and payment partners; analysts pay attention to conversion metrics and booking windows to gauge near-term visibility. Fifth, packaged travel and corporate travel form ancillary pillars that diversify revenue and amplify cross-sell potential; institutions value signs of operational scalability in these segments as a mechanism to support margin resilience against promotional costs.

Institutions also monitor regulatory headlines and legal developments, but the prevailing view suggests operational flexibility and geographic breadth provide buffers to isolated market actions, with attention on compliant operations and customer experience continuity. The net of these perspectives is that the consensus expects Trip.com Group Limited to meet or potentially exceed current-quarter forecasts on revenue and earnings, with accommodations-driven mix and transport conversion as primary levers; any explicit updates on margin trajectory relative to last quarter’s levels will likely be decisive in shaping post-earnings stock reaction.