On December 19, the main contracts for P10, INC. (PX) and Cohen & Steers Tax-Advantaged Preferred Securities and Income Fund (PTA) surged with significant open interest growth after opening, breaking through their three-month highs. By the close, the PX2603 contract rose by 252 yuan to 7,070 yuan per ton, with open interest up by 52,000 lots, marking a 3.7% gain. The PTA2605 contract climbed 158 yuan to 4,884 yuan per ton, with open interest increasing by 190,000 lots, a 3.34% rise. Since Q4, as expectations for PX and PTA improved, the overall trend reversed, with prices gradually recovering from their lows.
**PX and PTA Show Favorable Market Consensus** Supply projections for 2026 indicate limited new capacity additions for PX and PTA. PX will see no new capacity in the first three quarters, with additions concentrated in Q4, while PTA will have no domestic capacity expansions, except for one planned unit in India. This results in low supply growth for both. Meanwhile, polyester demand is estimated at 4 million tons, with a moderate output growth rate of 4-5%. The supply-demand mismatch suggests a tight market, with notable inventory drawdowns during peak seasons.
Post-Q4, the market has shifted focus to 2026 outlooks. With slower capacity expansions, PX and PTA are expected to avoid excessive competition ("anti-involution"), standing out among chemical products. Market consensus leans toward bullish positioning in both.
**PTA Near-Term Maintenance Supports Prices** Recent fundamentals show limited changes in PX and PTA supply-demand dynamics. PTA’s mainstream suppliers are expected to continue maintenance into the new year, keeping seasonal inventory buildup pressures manageable.
On the supply side, three major units remain under maintenance, likely extending into January-February 2026. After the Q4 startup of the Dushan plant, its No. 1 unit entered maintenance and has yet to restart. Two smaller lines also face delayed restarts. On the demand side, polyester inventories are manageable, and recent cost rebounds have spurred two consecutive days of strong sales. Year-end operating rates are expected to stay above 91%, with seasonal declines to 88% and 84% in January-February. PTA balances remain tight in December, with minor inventory accumulation expected in early 2026, though pressure is lighter than in previous years.
**PX Outperforms PTA in Price Elasticity** PX exhibits stronger price elasticity than PTA. With no new PX capacity since 2024, output growth relies on technical upgrades and MX-based short-process expansions. PTA’s capacity growth will only slow post-2026, having outpaced PX in recent years. PTA’s pressure stems from idled units that could restart amid high margins, capping its processing fees. Currently, PX dominates industry profits, while PTA’s processing fees have stayed low since mid-2025.
PX’s resilience is expected to persist, with PTA’s processing fees potentially improving post-peak season in 2026 as maintenance increases and inventories tighten.
**Outlook** Today’s rally in PX and PTA reflects solid near-term fundamentals and optimistic 2026 expectations. Valuation-wise, crude costs are stable, with PXN rebounding above 300 and PTA processing fees slightly recovering. While the rally prices in forward expectations, caution is advised. The 2026 outlook remains positive, with opportunities likely on pullbacks.