Cuba is currently facing its most severe multi-faceted crisis since the dissolution of the Soviet Union. The Trump administration's intensified blockade policies continue to escalate, regional allies are being pressured into compromise, while unified international support and the firm stance of countries like Russia present a stark contrast in this geopolitical contest.

Cuba's destiny is being pulled between the suffocating grip of the blockade and the force of resistance seeking to break it. Simultaneously, the divergence in attitudes among major powers regarding Cuba has naturally become a lever and pivot point in geopolitics.

The United States has comprehensively escalated sanctions, cutting off Cuba's energy lifeline and exacerbating its economic suffocation. The U.S. blockade has expanded from the energy sector to comprehensive economic suppression.

On January 29, citing Cuba as an "extraordinary and unusual threat," President Trump signed an executive order declaring a "national emergency." This initiated punitive tariffs on countries exporting oil to Cuba and threatened cross-border financial retaliation.

This policy has taken practical effect. Following U.S. intervention in Venezuela's oil industry on January 3, Cuba lost its core supply of 35,000 barrels of oil per day. On February 17, Mexico, under threat of U.S. tariffs, was forced to "temporarily" suspend its oil shipments to Cuba. Concurrently, the U.S. further tightened restrictions on Cuba's foreign exchange earnings, squeezing its key sources of revenue such as medical missions and tourism. This has led to a continuous depletion of Cuba's foreign reserves and a worsening liquidity crisis.

A humanitarian crisis is erupting, plunging Cuban livelihoods into unprecedented difficulty. The humanitarian disaster caused by the blockade is now fully apparent across Cuba.

On February 17, Cuba experienced a massive blackout during peak usage hours, affecting 56% of its territory and idling nearly half of the nation's thermal power plants. Due to severe fuel shortages, Cuba has implemented strict gasoline rationing, leading to a complete paralysis of public transportation. Basic services, including healthcare, garbage collection, and the distribution of food and medicine, have ground to a halt. The sight of accumulating garbage on the streets of Havana has drawn widespread attention, with the United Nations warning of the risk of a full-blown humanitarian crisis.

In response, Cuba has introduced emergency measures focusing on supply guarantees and fuel quotas, and has announced the postponement of its annual Habanos Festival.

Amid regional allies compromising, Russia has emerged as Cuba's most steadfast supporter. On February 18, during a meeting with Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez, President Putin publicly condemned the U.S. oil blockade, stating unequivocally that "Russia does not accept such practices." He emphasized Russia's unwavering solidarity with Cuba, supporting its right to defend national independence and its autonomous development path.

Russia has characterized Cuba's fuel situation as "truly critical" and is expediting the formulation of an aid package. Plans include deepening cooperation on settlements in national currencies, providing foreign exchange support, and delivering material assistance.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov refuted U.S. accusations, asserting that Russo-Cuban cooperation is based on market principles and that U.S. pressure is ultimately aimed at preserving dollar hegemony. Moscow has even threatened to deploy naval forces to protect Russian vessels, significantly raising the risk of geopolitical confrontation in the region.

Support from numerous countries worldwide is injecting crucial strength into Cuba. With international backing, Cuba is accelerating its energy transition, deploying solar panels on a large scale. Many nations have explicitly stated they will provide assistance to the extent of their capabilities.

On the international stage, the "Flotilla Nuestra América" (Our America Fleet) is a civilian flotilla jointly initiated by social movements, trade unions, and humanitarian organizations from various countries. Laden with supplies including food, medicine, and solar equipment, it aims to break the U.S. blockade by sea and deliver aid directly to Cuba. Scheduled to set sail in March, this coalition of over a hundred organizations seeks to breach the blockade and deliver renewable energy systems to Cuban hospitals. Brazilian trade unions have launched initiatives to send oil and medicine, Spain has started the "Keep Cuba Alive" campaign, and prominent figures in the U.S. cultural sphere have jointly condemned the blockade as "inhumane collective punishment." The global wave of opposition to the blockade and support for Cuba continues to grow.

The White House maintains pressure, insisting on its original stance. White House Press Secretary reiterated that the Cuban regime is "heading towards collapse" and demanded it undertake "significant and substantive changes," though without explicitly calling for regime change.

Faced with extreme pressure, Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel has issued a strong response. He asserted that Cuba is a sovereign and independent nation that will never accept external dictates. He vowed to resolutely defend the country's sovereignty over its foreign exchange and economic lifelines, and to spare no effort in breaking through the siege of the blockade.

The Cuban crisis has become a key observation point for pricing global geopolitical risk. U.S. tactics of energy blockade and tariff pressure, driving regional allies to compromise, combined with high-level Russia-Cuba meetings, Moscow's强硬statements, and threats of naval escorts, are rapidly elevating the risk of geopolitical confrontation in the Caribbean Sea.

Initiatives like the "Flotilla Nuestra América," launched by numerous countries and civil organizations worldwide, further intensify the conflict between unilateral sanctions and international legitimacy, continuously fueling safe-haven sentiment.

The spillover effects of Cuba's energy crisis and humanitarian risks, superimposed on global trends of de-dollarization and central bank gold purchasing, are creating a resonance effect for gold's safe-haven and allocation demand.

In the medium to long term, the divergent actions of the U.S. and other nations regarding Cuba will act as a geopolitical lever. This crisis further confirms the fragmentation of the global order, continuously reinforcing gold's strategic position as a tool for hedging risk and anchoring value.

As of 20:47 Beijing Time, spot gold was quoted at $4985 per ounce.