Title

Earning Preview: Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte SAB de CV this quarter’s revenue is expected to increase by 23.94%, and institutional views are bullish

Abstract

Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte SAB de CV will report quarterly results on February 24, 2026 Post Market, with expectations centered on double-digit year-over-year growth in revenue and earnings and investor focus on margin durability and segment execution.

Market Forecast

For the current quarter, company projections indicate total revenue of 224.61 million, up 23.94% year over year, EBIT of 125.46 million, up 17.69% year over year, and adjusted EPS of 1.60, up 17.96% year over year; margin guidance for the quarter has not been formally outlined, but the last reported gross margin was 66.59% and the net margin was 38.29%. The main business continues to be concentrated in aeronautical and non-aeronautical activities, which dominated last quarter’s composition and set the tone for outlook; construction services remain smaller and more timing-sensitive. The most promising area remains aeronautical and non-aeronautical revenue, which reached 190.52 million last quarter and is positioned to benefit from the company’s overall growth trajectory evidenced by 7.91% year-over-year revenue expansion in the prior period.

Last Quarter Review

The previous quarter delivered revenue of 211.05 million (up 7.91% year over year), a gross profit margin of 66.59%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent of approximately 80.81 million (consistent with a 38.29% net profit margin), and adjusted EPS of 1.68 (up 11.14% year over year). A notable highlight was net profit momentum, which improved quarter on quarter by 12.65%, underpinned by resilient margins and steady operational efficiency. Main business composition featured aeronautical and non-aeronautical revenue of 190.52 million, representing 90.27% of total, and construction services revenue of 20.53 million, representing 9.73%, with overall revenue up 7.91% year over year.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Aeronautical and Non-Aeronautical Revenue

The aeronautical and non-aeronautical segment remains the core earnings engine this quarter, and it sets expectations for both topline scale and margin resilience. With last quarter’s revenue contribution at 190.52 million, this segment’s performance is pivotal to the forecasted 224.61 million total revenue estimate, particularly as aeronautical fees and commercial income historically support high incremental margins. The company’s projection of adjusted EPS of 1.60, up 17.96% year over year, implicitly relies on steady yields from passenger-driven aeronautical charges and commercial non-aeronautical activities such as retail, parking, and other services within airport terminals. Margin continuity matters: the last reported gross margin at 66.59% and net margin at 38.29% give investors a baseline to gauge whether pricing discipline and operating leverage can offset cost inflation in the current quarter. A constructive scenario would see aeronautical traffic trends aligning with pricing schemes and concession economics, enabling EBIT to track the 125.46 million estimate (up 17.69% year over year) without undue dilution from variable expenses; in turn, EPS delivery would match or exceed the 1.60 target. Execution around commercial initiatives—tenant mix, minimum guarantees, and revenue sharing—adds a layer of predictability and could help preserve margin even amid higher utilities or labor costs. The segment’s breadth also provides buffers: it includes diverse non-aeronautical streams that typically recover quickly with stable passenger flows, which, paired with targeted pricing strategies, can absorb episodic volatility in individual airports.

Construction Services

Construction services appears as the smaller, timing-sensitive contributor, at 20.53 million last quarter and 9.73% of total revenue, and its role in quarterly performance is usually more episodic than structural. This line is shaped by the cadence of work programs and capital projects, which can fluctuate quarter to quarter depending on schedules, permitting, and contractor execution. Its contribution to gross margin tends to be lower due to the nature of cost structures and accounting related to work recognition, so the near-term focus is not to rely on this segment for margin expansion but rather for strategic asset development that supports longer-term commercial and operational returns in the aeronautical and non-aeronautical core. Investors will look for evidence of disciplined project management: timely progress on ongoing works, cost containment within budgets, and alignment with concession obligations. While construction services may add incremental revenue this quarter, the quality-of-earnings lens turns more to how those projects underpin future aeronautical capacity, tenant appeal, and service quality, which create the conditions for more durable commercial revenue in subsequent periods. As the company pursues capital programs consistent with prior commitments, clarity on timelines and financial impact can help dampen volatility perceptions tied to this segment’s quarterly swings.

Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

There are three focal drivers for the stock this quarter: the scale of the topline beat or miss versus the 224.61 million revenue estimate, the resilience of margin relative to prior-quarter levels, and the translation of EBIT and EPS versus guidance and consensus expectations. Delivery of revenue up 23.94% year over year stands out as a critical validation of operational momentum; if realized, it sets a supportive backdrop for EPS, which is expected at 1.60, up 17.96% year over year. Investors will assess whether gross margin can hold near the high-60s percentage range and net margin near the high-30s percentage range, considering potential cost variability across airports and operational lines. The EBIT estimate of 125.46 million (up 17.69% year over year) provides a bridge between topline and EPS; achieving it would signal that fixed-cost absorption and pricing are tracking well. A key watchpoint is cost inflation in items like energy and security services, which can pressure margins if not offset by pricing or productivity improvements; the market will be sensitive to commentary and disclosures about cost management and any changes to concession fees or regulatory payments. Finally, investors will parse qualitative signals around commercial program performance—lease renewals, tenant churn, and variable rents—which, while not explicitly forecasted as margins, materially influence earnings quality; firm non-aeronautical traction can help sustain EPS delivery even if certain aeronautical metrics fluctuate.

In the context of these drivers, even minor deviations in aeronautical throughput or commercial sales per passenger could have noticeable impacts on consolidated results, given the concentration of revenue in the core segment. Therefore, the earnings communication around passenger trends, pricing dynamics, and commercial contract performance will be closely scrutinized alongside the numerical prints. If reported numbers align with the indicated growth rates, the market may extrapolate durability into subsequent quarters, reinforcing the valuation supported by consistent margins and rising EPS. Conversely, if growth or margin delivery falls short of the outlined percentages, particularly in the core segment, the stock reaction will likely depend on how transitory management characterizes the shortfall and whether any corrective levers are articulated for the near term.

Beyond the immediate numbers, transparency on upcoming project milestones in the construction services line will help contextualize any quarter-specific revenue or margin variances. Detail on how current works feed into capacity, tenant experience, and longer-run commercial productivity can serve as a qualitative offset to quarter-to-quarter lumpiness in that segment. Investors often appreciate the linkage between current spending and future aeronautical and non-aeronautical monetization; clear articulation can mitigate concerns over temporary margin compression tied to construction scheduling.

Finally, attention will turn to the interplay between EBIT flow-through and EPS conversion in light of financing costs and tax rates. While the forecast framework highlights EBIT and EPS, the magnitude of non-operating items can fine-tune EPS outcomes around the 1.60 mark; favorable outcomes here typically hinge on hedging strategies and interest expense control. If these items trend benignly and operational delivery meets the revenue and margin context provided by last quarter’s 66.59% gross margin and 38.29% net margin, EPS should remain well supported. The confirmation of quarter-on-quarter stability or improvement in margins would be a constructive signal for valuation narratives anchored in earnings quality.

Analyst Opinions

The prevailing view among institutions tracked in the recent period is bullish, with published ratings maintaining Buy stances and emphasizing the company’s earnings momentum into the quarter; the ratio of bullish to bearish opinions observed is 100% bullish to 0% bearish. Jefferies, via analyst Alejandro Demichelis, reiterated a Buy rating and cited a price target of $135.00, indicating confidence in the near-term trajectory of revenue and EPS as outlined by the company’s framework. Barclays, through analyst Pablo Monsivais, reaffirmed a Buy rating in multiple recent communications, reflecting continued conviction in earnings sustainability backed by operational execution and margin consistency. These viewpoints largely key off the projected 23.94% year-over-year revenue growth, 17.69% year-over-year EBIT growth, and 17.96% year-over-year EPS growth, which collectively paint a picture of an earnings profile with meaningful leverage to core operations.

Digging deeper, the bullish argument emphasizes that last quarter’s margin profile—66.59% gross and 38.29% net—established a constructive baseline for the current quarter’s delivery. From this perspective, maintaining high incremental margin in the aeronautical and non-aeronautical segment is the hinge to meeting or exceeding the EPS estimate of 1.60. Analysts suggest that the core segment’s revenue visibility is relatively solid within the quarter, while construction services, despite being lower margin and timing-sensitive, should not materially distort consolidated profitability unless project timing is unusually front-loaded or delayed beyond typical swings. In practical terms, Jefferies’ and Barclays’ reinforcing Buy ratings can be read as confidence that management’s execution and cost discipline will be sufficient to bridge forecasted topline gains into EBIT and EPS delivery consistent with the company’s outline.

The analytical lens also highlights how quarter-on-quarter dynamics inform the current setup: last quarter’s net profit rose by 12.65% sequentially, which supports the notion of improving earnings cadence even before factoring in double-digit year-over-year growth targets. Analysts use this sequential improvement as partial validation that operational momentum persists; it raises the threshold for what the market perceives as acceptable short-term margin variability. Equally, they are attuned to communications around operating expenses and non-operating items that can influence EPS conversion; stable interest and tax lines enhance confidence that EBIT flow-through will be adequate to meet or surpass the 1.60 EPS marker.

These bullish assessments typically carry a few implicit conditions that investors will monitor during the release and call: clarity on pricing and concession economics, evidence of sustained commercial traction in non-aeronautical income, and transparent updates on construction services scheduling to contextualize any revenue timing effects. Should reported results align with the forecasted year-over-year growth rates and maintain margin integrity near last quarter’s levels, analysts expect the narrative to remain constructive. Under that outcome, the valuation angle tends to center around consistent earnings quality supported by the core segment’s scale, making the quarter’s numbers a key test of the sustainability implied in current Buy ratings.

From a practical standpoint, the shape of the stock’s reaction is likely to hinge on the degree of alignment between reported metrics and the figures already signaled: revenue around 224.61 million, EBIT near 125.46 million, and adjusted EPS about 1.60. Variances beyond typical ranges would invite reappraisals, but the current institutional posture implies confidence in management’s ability to deliver within these parameters. Given the emphasis on margins in prior communications, evidence of retained gross and net margin levels will carry outsized narrative weight, especially against the backdrop of double-digit year-over-year growth in both EBIT and EPS. In sum, the majority view among institutions analyzed expects an earnings print that validates the company’s projected trajectory and supports ongoing bullishness predicated on operational consistency and earnings resilience.