Abstract

Constellium NV will report fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 18, 2026 Pre-Market, with investor attention centered on revenue, margin resilience, and adjusted EPS momentum following sequential mix shifts and aerospace demand normalization.

Market Forecast

Consensus embedded in the latest forecast points to fourth-quarter revenue of 1.81 billion USD, implying year-over-year growth of 12.79%, with estimated EBIT of 83.82 million USD and estimated EPS of 0.30, and an outlook for stable to slightly improving profitability. The company’s baseline points to a continued recovery in gross profit margin and net earnings leverage; however, explicit gross margin and net margin guidance is not provided, and the market will watch for confirmation against a prior-quarter gross margin of 14.50% and a net profit margin of 4.06% on a GAAP basis. The main business profile continues to be led by Packaging and Automotive Rolled Products alongside steady aerospace transport demand. The segment with the largest upside potential remains Packaging and Automotive Rolled Products, given its 1.30 billion USD revenue scale last quarter and exposure to secular light-weighting, with further mix improvement expected; aerospace should also contribute positively as schedules normalize year over year.

Last Quarter Review

In the previous quarter, Constellium NV delivered revenue of 1.85 billion USD, a gross profit margin of 14.50%, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of 88.00 million USD with a net profit margin of 4.06%, and adjusted EPS of 0.30, with year-over-year increases in revenue of 13.11% and adjusted EPS growth of 114.29%. Net profit rose quarter over quarter by 144.44%, reflecting improved conversion of volume and pricing into earnings. Segment highlights showed Packaging and Automotive Rolled Products at 1.30 billion USD, Aerospace Transport at 463.00 million USD, and Automotive Structures and Industry at 399.00 million USD, underscoring broad-based demand across end-markets.

Current Quarter Outlook

Core rolling operations and downstream value-add

Packaging and Automotive Rolled Products remains the centerpiece for earnings this quarter, supported by stable can-sheet demand and ongoing light-weighting in auto sheet. With last quarter’s revenue base at 1.30 billion USD, even modest pricing retention can translate into meaningful EBIT progression when combined with incremental throughput and better scrap spreads. The quarter’s key watch items include conversion premiums, energy cost pass-throughs, and the cadence of automotive production schedules in Europe and North America. An improving mix toward higher-value alloys for EV body-in-white applications can elevate contribution margins, though the near-term impact will depend on OEM build plans and inventory normalization. The path to EPS delivery hinges on sustaining last quarter’s 14.50% gross margin while protecting net margin around the 4% area against seasonal costs.

Aerospace transport momentum

Aerospace Transport remains a positive tailwind as aircraft production rates ratchet upward compared with the prior year’s cadence. With last quarter revenue of 463.00 million USD, the business should benefit from multi-year backlog visibility, gradually improving mill utilization, and firming price/mix on plate and sheet. Supply chain stability across key airframe programs supports steady shipments, while qualification timelines for newer alloys may unlock incremental mix uplift. The near-term risk centers on any delivery schedule adjustments by major OEMs and maintenance work that could temporarily cap tonnage; however, this is partially offset by supportive pricing and a higher proportion of contractual pass-throughs.

Automotive structures and industrial activity

Automotive Structures and Industry (399.00 million USD last quarter) offers embedded optionality from content growth in EV platforms and higher take rates for crash management systems, extrusions, and structural components. The quarter’s outcome will be influenced by customer ramp stability, labor availability, and the pace of industrial orders, including renewables and logistics end-markets. Margin progression is tied to operational efficiency, scrap loop optimization, and a disciplined bid pipeline that favors higher value-add assemblies. A steady flow of program launches, if executed without disruption, can improve overhead absorption and support EBIT resilience despite seasonal factors.

Stock price swing factors

Three variables are set to drive share reaction around the print. Delivery on the 0.30 adjusted EPS estimate with constructive commentary on 2026 volume and pricing could validate broader margin normalization. Any deviation in gross margin from the recent 14.50% level—driven by energy, alloying inputs, or product mix—will reset expectations for full-year earnings power. Guidance on aerospace shipment growth, auto sheet program cadence, and downstream structural wins will likely inform the implied revenue growth trajectory into the first half of 2026 and could influence valuation multiples.

Analyst Opinions

Across recent opinion pieces and rating actions within the eligible window from October 2025 through February 2026, the balance of commentary skews bullish. J.P. Morgan reiterated a Buy rating on October 5, 2025 and again on January 18, 2026, with the latter update setting a price target of 22.00 USD, reflecting confidence in revenue growth and earnings compounding into 2026. The constructive stance emphasizes operating leverage from the Packaging and Automotive Rolled Products segment and continued recovery in aerospace, arguing that improving utilization and mix will support margin expansion and free cash flow. Given the available views, bullish opinions represent the clear majority of recent published commentary, with supportive arguments centered on sustained demand in can sheet and auto, clear aerospace tailwinds, and disciplined cost control that should underpin the 12.79% revenue growth estimate and 0.30 EPS consensus for the quarter.