美股再陷跌势,但4月2日关税大限后或迎转机?

老虎资讯综合
27 Mar

美股周三结束三连涨重拾跌势,特朗普政府酝酿的"对等关税"政策大限(4月2日)步步紧逼。尽管周二消费者信心数据疲软未阻市场反弹,但截至当日,标普500指数录得近一周来首度收跌。

BCA Research首席策略师Marko Papic警告,标普500与纳斯达克指数近期陷入技术性回调的抛售潮可能卷土重来,投资者需警惕下行风险。他在周二客户报告中指出:"白宫将于4月2日宣布一系列'对等关税',这标志着美国在当前的全球贸易战中摆出'极限施压'姿态。"基于华盛顿圈内"清一色看空关税"的传闻,Papic预计媒体将陆续释放政策信号,进一步加剧股市风险。

不过Papic强调,此次关税声明更多是美方与贸易伙伴谈判的"开局筹码",而非旨在增加财政收入的框架性政策。他认为,特朗普的策略或将在未来6-12个月内促成美国进出口关税双降。"战术上看,我们预计股市在4月2日前后的动荡中将承压下行,但随着投资者意识到贸易战最糟阶段或已过去,市场有望迎来修复。"

除关税阴云外,债市交易员正等待疲软调查数据向"硬指标"传导的迹象——10年期美债收益率虽脱离1月高点,但仍胶着于4.3%区间。

文章源自MarketWatch《Stocks are falling again. Why they may look safer after the April 2 tariff deadline.》

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