According to the latest Memory Monthly Price Tracker report from market research firm Counterpoint Research, global memory chip prices are experiencing a rare, sharp upward trend, with the overall market having entered a "super bull market" phase where price levels have comprehensively surpassed the previous historical highs of 2018. Driven by the continuous surge in demand for AI computing infrastructure and server capacity, memory products like DRAM and NAND are in short supply, pushing supplier pricing power to historic highs. The report forecasts that overall memory prices will rise by 40%-50% in the fourth quarter of 2025, followed by another 40%-50% increase in the first quarter of 2026, with a further approximate 20% rise expected in the second quarter of 2026. Structurally, this round of price increases is not a short-term catch-up but rather a sharp reversal built upon the foundation of a prolonged previous downturn. Following an extended period of price declines and inventory reduction from 2023 into 2024, leading memory manufacturers proactively cut production and concentrated capacity on high-margin products, setting the stage for the current supply tightness. Counterpoint's report indicates that prices for traditional server DRAM, consumer-grade DRAM, and NAND have already accumulated multiple rounds of increases in 2025, with a single-quarter surge of 40%-50% in Q4 2025, and even larger increases for some high-end modules. This upward momentum is already manifesting in specific products. Counterpoint disclosed that the price of 64GB RDIMM modules, commonly used in data centers, jumped from $255 in Q3 2025 to approximately $450 in Q4, and is expected to climb further to around $700 around March 2026, with both the quarterly and annual increases far exceeding those of the previous cycle. The rapid price ascent has quickly rendered the cost models of downstream OEMs obsolete, as cost advantages meticulously honed in other components are being overwhelmingly consumed by this single "memory" item. Concurrently, the industry's assessment of a "memory super cycle" is strengthening. Data from third-party institutions shows that DRAM industry revenue saw robust year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth in Q3 2025, with contract prices continuing to be raised in Q4. Standard DRAM contract prices saw a quarterly increase of nearly 50%, while High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) and advanced-node products saw even steeper rises, significantly boosting overall memory business profit margins. The core driver of this market trend is the demand for next-generation servers, represented by AI training and inference clusters. Starting in the second half of 2025, major cloud service providers and internet companies began locking in capacity for high-end HBM and server DRAM in bulk, which not only drove up prices for memory used in AI servers but also further squeezed the wafer resources available for consumer PCs and smartphones. Industry trackers estimate that server DRAM prices could rise by over 60% again in Q1 2026, with US cloud computing vendors starting to pull in orders ahead of schedule from late 2025 to secure bit supply for the first half of 2026. The tilt in capacity structure is translating into a comprehensive increase in terminal manufacturing costs. Counterpoint's previous research on the smartphone supply chain indicated that, affected by multiple rounds of DRAM and NAND price hikes, the Bill of Materials (BOM) cost for low-end models has increased by an average of about 25% since mid-to-late 2025, mid-range models by about 15%, and high-end models by about 10%. On this basis, if memory prices accumulate another near-doubling in the first half of 2026 as the latest report suggests, smartphone BOM costs are expected to see an additional increase of 8%-15%, making an upward trend in average selling prices unavoidable. Significant pressure is also being felt in the PC and server sectors. Prices for high-end DDR5 memory modules targeting enterprise and professional users have already seen single-quarter increases of around 50%, prompting some OEMs to reassess standard memory configurations and product pricing strategies. In configurations for AI workstations, edge servers, and high-performance desktops, the proportion of memory and storage in the total BOM cost has risen significantly, forcing manufacturers to rebalance their configuration mixes beyond just GPUs and CPUs. While costs continue to climb, terminal demand has not expanded robustly in parallel. Counterpoint's latest forecast suggests global smartphone shipments may experience a slight decline in 2026, with the overall shipment outlook being revised down by approximately 2%, with mid-to-low-end models facing greater impact. The research suggests that in an environment of high memory costs, some manufacturers will reduce or delay the launch pace of entry-level new products, preferring instead to offset cost pressures by raising average selling prices, which will further dampen the replacement willingness of price-sensitive consumers. For leading brands, strong bargaining power and economies of scale provide a certain buffer against this cost shock. Some large terminal manufacturers utilize long-term supply agreements, joint development, and supply chain finance to lock in portions of their memory supply and price ranges, thereby creating flexibility across product lines and absorbing more pressure internally. However, for small and medium-sized brands and white-label manufacturers, facing unified price increases upstream and an inability to significantly raise selling prices downstream, profit margins are being noticeably compressed. Some companies' shipment strategies have already shifted towards "producing fewer low-end models and stabilizing the mid-to-high-end segments." In the capital markets, this memory "super bull market" is directly reflected in the profit forecasts and stock performance of leading companies. Represented by several top memory manufacturers in South Korea and the US, performance guidance for Q4 2025 into early 2026 generally indicates profits multiplying year-on-year, widely attributed by the market to the sharp recovery in memory prices and the increased proportion of high-value-added products. This divergence has also created clear "winners" and "pressure-bearers" within the chip supply chain, presenting a stark contrast between the boom for upstream memory makers and the cost squeeze faced by downstream assembly and some brand manufacturers. In the coming months, the market will focus on two key narratives: whether memory manufacturers will significantly ramp up capital expenditure and capacity plans for 2026, thereby altering the supply-demand balance over a longer timeframe; and whether the pace of AI infrastructure investment will slow, freeing up more available capacity for terminal products. Scenario analyses from multiple institutions suggest that if AI-related investments maintain their current intensity, high memory prices could persist into the second half of 2026 or even longer; conversely, if new capacity is concentratedly brought online and demand marginally cools, the inflection point of this "super bull market" could become apparent around the next earnings season.