• Coinbase Global experienced a significant price surge recently.

• The stock’s inclusion in major indices and expansion into derivatives trading strengthen its long-term outlook.

• Technical analysis based on the moving averages signals “strong buy” for Coinbase stock.

• Spread option strategies are appropriate for capitalizing on upside opportunities.

Coinbase Soars on S&P Inclusion, Strategic Expansion

Coinbase shares rose 23.97% on May 13 on the news that the crypto exchange to join the S&P 500. Since going public through a direct listing in 2021, Coinbase has become a bigger part of the U.S. financial system, with bitcoin soaring in value and large institutions gaining regulatory approval to create spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds. Shares closed at $263.16 on May 23, up 85% from its 2025 low.

Inclusion in the S&P 500 validates Coinbase’s role as a mainstream financial institution and attracts passive investment flows.

Additionally, Coinbase announced plans to buy Dubai-based Deribit, a major crypto derivatives exchange for $2.9 billion. The deal, which is the largest in the crypto industry to date, will help Coinbase broaden its footprint outside the U.S.

Bitcoin Market Rally Drives Optimism for Coinbase’s Transaction Revenue

Bitcoin hit a brand new record high above $111,000 last Thursday. Bitcoin’s market rally drives optimism for Coinbase’s transaction revenue as COIN’s stock historically correlates with crypto market trends.

Coinbase's Q1 2025 earnings report disclosed total crypto holdings of $1.3 billion, with Bitcoin comprising the majority.

Source: Tiger Trade App

Bitcoin and the broader crypto market have rallied in recent weeks thanks to regulatory tailwinds including the stablecoin bill advancing in the US Senate after a group of Democrats dropped their opposition last Monday.

Technical analysis based on the moving averages also signals “strong buy” for Coinbase stock.

Option Strategy

Here are two structured spread strategies for Coinbase expiring June 20, 2025 if you have neutral-to-bullish outlook on Coinbase:

1. Bull Call Spread

Structure:

• Buy $260 Call @ $19.88

• Sell $265 Call @ $17.55

  $COIN Vertical 250620 260.0C/265.0C$

Key Metrics:

• Max Profit: $2.67 (strike difference - net debit = $5 - $2.33).

• Max Loss: $2.33 (limited to net debit).

• Breakeven: $262.33 ($260 + $2.33).

Source: Tiger Trade App

Rationale:

• Targets upside toward resistance at $263.58 and analyst target of $268.10 .

• Benefits from upward momentum in COIN, driven by Bitcoin’s recent rally (+28% since April 2025).

2. Bull Put Spread

Structure:

• Sell $260 Put @ $15.80

• Buy $255 Put @ $13.28

  $COIN Vertical 250620 255.0P/260.0P$

Key Metrics:

• Max Profit: $2.52 (net credit).

• Max Loss: $2.48 (strike difference - net credit = $5 - $2.52).

• Breakeven: $257.48 ($260 - $2.52).

  

Rationale:

• Profits if COIN stays above $260 (near current support at $253.58 ).

• Capitalizes on elevated short volume (~13% short ratio) and time decay.

Risks to Consider

Coinbase expects to pay $180M-$400M in reimbursements and remediation after a recent data breach exposed sensitive customer information and led to users being tricked into sending funds to the attackers, it said on Thursday.

On May 11, the crypto exchange "received an email communication from an unknown threat actor claiming to have obtained information about certain Coinbase customer accounts, as well as internal Coinbase documentation, including materials relating to customer-service and account-management systems," it disclosed in an SEC filing.