On April 15, our analysis from the previous Tuesday suggested that the next round of ceasefire talks between the U.S. and Iran would likely cool market risk sentiment, while a drop in oil prices would alleviate inflation concerns, thereby supporting a steady rebound in gold prices. For trading strategy, we recommended watching for support at $4,745, followed by $4,700, and monitoring the breakthrough above the $4,800 resistance level. A successful break above could target $4,860 and $4,900.
Looking at subsequent price action, during Tuesday's European session, gold found support at $4,752, then fluctuated higher. After the U.S. market opened, it broke through the key $4,800 level, encountering resistance near $4,846 at the close. On Wednesday, gold dipped slightly to find support at $4,827 before climbing again to meet resistance at $4,871. The price is currently consolidating lower, trading around $4,821. Overall, gold stabilized near our indicated support level of $4,745 and advanced towards our target of $4,860, aligning with expectations.
The breakdown in U.S.-Iran talks over the weekend, coupled with threats to block the Strait of Hormuz, initially drove oil prices sharply higher on Monday, causing gold to open with a gap down. However, as negotiations were not completely abandoned and both sides signaled potential for further dialogue—with reports indicating another round of talks later in the week and Pakistan calling for a 45-day ceasefire extension—oil prices retreated from highs, allowing gold to stabilize and recover. On Tuesday evening, statements that the war with Iran was over and that talks might resume within two days, alongside the partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, led to further declines in oil prices. The easing of inflation worries pressured the U.S. dollar to a new low since March, while gold rallied during the U.S. session to a fresh April high. Going forward, investors should continue monitoring progress in the ceasefire talks; further de-escalation could provide additional upward momentum for gold.
On the daily chart, although gold faced resistance after last week's rally, the pullback was limited, and the subsequent rebound indicates short-term strength. Key support is seen at the psychological $4,800 level, which has been tested multiple times during the recent two-week rebound, followed by the 4-hour Bollinger Band midline around $4,760. Immediate resistance lies near the day's high around $4,870, which marks the current rebound peak, followed by the $4,900 level—also near the weekly MA10. A break above this could open the path towards $5,000. The 5-day moving average and MACD indicator show a bullish crossover, though the KDJ's bullish momentum is slowing and the RSI is turning lower, suggesting gold has room for further gains but may face near-term pressure.
Intraday outlook: Statements signaling an end to the conflict with Iran and potential renewed talks have weighed on oil prices, easing inflation concerns and reducing expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates for an extended period, thereby supporting gold's rebound. Trading strategy should adopt a range-bound approach, with support monitored at $4,800, then $4,760, and resistance watched at $4,870 and $4,900. A sustained break higher could target $5,000.