UBS has revised its projections upwards for the average price of Brent crude in the first quarter and the full year of 2026, citing escalating Middle East conflicts and the near de-facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

The bank now anticipates Brent crude to average $71 per barrel in the first quarter, implying a price around $80 per barrel by March, with a full-year 2026 average of $72 per barrel—a $10 increase from its previous estimate.

The bank indicated that it is maintaining its forecasts for subsequent years for the time being: $70 per barrel in 2027 and $75 per barrel in 2028, though risks are tilted to the upside.

UBS noted that Brent crude could surpass $90 per barrel if regional energy infrastructure, such as Qatar's liquefied natural gas facilities, comes under attack. A prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could push prices above $100 per barrel.

Although a near-term easing of tensions might reduce some of the risk premium, the bank believes it is unlikely that oil prices will fall back to the $60 per barrel level seen at the start of the year.

Brent crude futures were last traded near $82.32 per barrel on Wednesday, after settling at their highest level since January 2025 on Tuesday. U.S. crude futures were last quoted at $74.73 per barrel, following a settlement that marked the highest since June of last year.