Abstract

Granite Construction will report fourth-quarter fiscal results on February 12, 2026 Pre-Market; this preview compiles market forecasts and institutional views, highlights last quarter’s performance metrics, and outlines key segment expectations and earnings drivers.

Market Forecast

Consensus indicators, aligned with the company’s latest guidance set and compiled estimates, point to fourth-quarter revenue of USD 1.15 billion, gross profit margin near 18.18%, net profit margin around 7.18%, and adjusted EPS of USD 1.38, with forecast year-over-year increases of 20.82% for revenue, 7.95% for EPS, and 16.74% for EBIT. The main business is projected to be driven by Construction revenue, supported by Materials, with Construction expected to dominate the revenue mix and maintain steady margin performance. Materials remains the most promising contributor, with segment revenue implied near USD 270.99 million and robust year-over-year expansion, aided by pricing discipline and regional demand.

Last Quarter Review

Granite Construction’s previous quarter delivered revenue of USD 1.43 billion, gross profit margin of 18.18%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of USD 1.03 billion, net profit margin of 7.18%, and adjusted EPS of USD 2.70, with revenue up 12.39% year over year, EPS up 31.71% year over year, and EBIT up 39.05% year over year. The quarter’s notable financial highlight was the adjusted EPS surprise of USD 0.20 versus consensus and EBIT at USD 142.88 million, reflecting cost controls and project execution outperformance. The main business highlights were led by Construction revenue of USD 1.16 billion and Materials revenue of USD 270.99 million, with Construction comprising 81.10% of total revenue while Materials provided 18.90% of the mix.

Current Quarter Outlook

Construction Segment

Construction is expected to remain the principal revenue engine this quarter, sustaining its share at over three-quarters of consolidated revenue. The ongoing execution of large transportation and civil infrastructure projects supports the revenue trajectory, with project backlogs and bid wins translating into billings as execution milestones are met. Margin performance is closely tied to project mix and the timing of cost recognition; near-term stability is indicated by consistent gross profit margin signals and the company’s disciplined change-order management.

The segment’s revenue outlook benefits from public funding cycles and state-level transportation budgets, which tend to be resilient even when private construction softness appears. Granite Construction’s approach to risk management—favoring negotiated work, refined pre-bid risk assessments, and diversified geography—helps reduce variability in margin capture quarter to quarter. Potential volatility can arise from weather disruptions, labor availability, and supply chain timing, but the underpinning backlog should provide visibility into billing conversion during the quarter.

Operationally, the focus is on maintaining schedule adherence and optimizing subcontractor and material cost profiles on complex work. Management’s continued emphasis on bid selectivity and the concentration on transportation and water-related infrastructure positions the segment to convert backlog at a pace consistent with the forecasted revenue and EBIT growth, with an eye on mitigating margin compression through proactive project controls.

Materials Segment

Materials is poised to contribute meaningfully to quarterly growth, supported by aggregate volumes and pricing discipline across regional markets. The revenue implication of USD 270.99 million frames the segment as a stabilizing contributor that can add margin consistency due to a more predictable cost base compared with long-duration construction contracts. Price realization, coupled with operational efficiency in quarrying and logistics, enhances contribution margin even as input costs fluctuate.

Demand from internal consumption within Construction projects and third-party sales create a balanced portfolio, enabling Materials to bridge timing differences between construction mobilization and completion phases. Logistics optimization, including haul distances and fleet utilization, remains a key lever for protecting unit margins. Seasonality can affect volume, but pricing actions and contract renewals provide a buffer that aligns with the broader revenue growth forecast for the quarter.

Strategically, Materials’ footprint supports cross-segment synergies, as vertical integration helps manage procurement costs and schedule risks on core projects. The quarter’s performance will hinge on sustaining volume throughput and leveraging contracts with escalators where applicable, allowing Materials to remain a supportive growth and margin pillar.

Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

Share performance into and after the print will likely respond to revenue and EPS delivery versus consensus, as well as commentary on backlog quality and conversion rates. Investors will scrutinize gross margin trends relative to the prior quarter’s 18.18% benchmark, looking for signs of stability amid labor and input cost dynamics. Cash flow articulation—particularly operating cash flow and working capital swings from project mobilization—can influence sentiment, given the capital intensity of infrastructure projects.

Management’s guidance for the coming fiscal periods will also drive the narrative, especially updates on bid pipelines and any notable awards in transportation and water infrastructure. Any indication of shifts in project mix toward higher-risk fixed-price work could raise concerns; conversely, reaffirmation of bid discipline and negotiated work concentration may bolster confidence. The magnitude of year-over-year revenue and EBIT growth delivered against the forecast will set expectations for the subsequent quarter, with downside risks tied to weather disruptions and timing of change-order approvals.

Analyst Opinions

Analyst views collected over the past six months skew bullish. Thompson Davis reiterated a Buy rating with a USD 140.00 price target on Granite Construction, citing execution consistency and margin resilience. The balance of previews indicates a constructive stance into the quarter, with emphasis on backlog conversion and steady segment margins as key support points.

The bullish perspective highlights that consensus expects revenue of USD 1.15 billion and adjusted EPS of USD 1.38, framing the setup for positive year-over-year growth. Commentary points to the potential for EBIT growth around 16.74% year over year, reflecting improved project mix and disciplined cost control. The prevailing view emphasizes that maintaining gross margin near 18.18% would validate operational rigor and sustain confidence in Granite Construction’s ability to navigate execution challenges while delivering on forecasted metrics.