Micron Technology (MU.US) FY2026 Q1 Earnings Call: Capex Plan Raised to ~$20B to Boost HBM Capacity

Stock News
Dec 18, 2025

Micron Technology (MU.US) reported record financial results during its FY2026 Q1 earnings call. The company posted quarterly revenue of $13.6 billion, up 21% sequentially and 57% year-over-year, driven by price increases, cost controls, and product mix optimization. Gross margin reached 56.8%, a sequential improvement of 11 percentage points, while non-GAAP diluted EPS surged to $4.78 (up 58% QoQ, 167% YoY). Free cash flow hit a quarterly record of $3.9 billion.

Management highlighted tightening DRAM and NAND supply-demand dynamics across the industry, expected to persist beyond 2026, fueled by AI data center deployments. DRAM bit demand growth for 2025 was revised upward to ~20% (from >15%), with NAND bit demand growth exceeding 15% (previously 10%-15%). Industry-wide DRAM/NAND shipments are projected to grow ~20% in 2026 versus 2025.

HBM demand (currently at a 3:1 ratio vs. DDR5 and widening) is exacerbating supply constraints, compounded by potential cleanroom construction delays. Micron has secured multi-year agreements covering 2026 HBM supply (including HBM4) with pricing and volume commitments. AI-driven data center expansion continues to accelerate demand for high-performance memory solutions, including HBM, high-capacity server DRAM, and data center SSDs. The company’s first PCIe Gen 6 SSD is undergoing rapid certification.

**Key Updates**: - FY2026 capital expenditure raised to ~$20 billion (from $18 billion), primarily to expand HBM and 1-gamma node capacity. - HBM3E production remains robust, with HBM4 sampling expected by mid-2026. HBM4 boasts industry-leading performance (>11 Gb/s) and power efficiency. - Micron anticipates the HBM market to reach $100 billion by 2028—two years earlier than prior estimates.

**Q&A Highlights**: 1. **Long-Term Agreements (LTAs)**: Negotiations with key customers include binding DRAM/NAND commitments extending to 2026–2028, featuring stronger contractual terms than historical LTAs. 2. **Capex Discipline**: Despite increased spending, capital intensity remains below the historical 35% target due to fab space constraints. Micron emphasized balanced supply-demand alignment. 3. **Cost Trends**: DRAM/NAND cost reductions continue, though HBM4 ramp-up may temporarily impact yields. 1-gamma DRAM and G9 NAND scaling will offset these effects. 4. **Competitive Positioning**: Micron’s HBM4 outperforms rivals in speed and power efficiency, with HBM3E consuming 30% less power than competitors. 5. **Pricing Dynamics**: 2026 HBM supply is fully committed with locked-in pricing, while non-HBM DRAM pricing remains flexible.

**Outlook**: - Data center SSD demand is rising alongside AI inference workloads. - Consumer electronics may face unit demand pressure from memory price hikes, but AI-driven memory needs across edge devices (PCs, smartphones) remain resilient. - Gross margins are expected to expand further in FY2026, albeit at a moderated pace.

Micron reiterated its focus on maximizing high-value segments while maintaining supply discipline in a structurally undersupplied market.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Most Discussed

  1. 1
     
     
     
     
  2. 2
     
     
     
     
  3. 3
     
     
     
     
  4. 4
     
     
     
     
  5. 5
     
     
     
     
  6. 6
     
     
     
     
  7. 7
     
     
     
     
  8. 8
     
     
     
     
  9. 9
     
     
     
     
  10. 10