Guotai Haitong Securities Co., Ltd. released a research report stating that in recent years, Saudi Arabia's economic vitality has improved, with the non-oil economy's contribution steadily rising to over 70%. The Middle East region is strategically positioned at the intersection of Asia, Africa, and Europe, traditionally relying on oil as its pillar industry due to advantageous geographical location and resource endowments. Saudi Arabia has long played a dual role as both an economic engine and a stabilizing force for regional development in the Middle East. China-Saudi relations have warmed amid global multipolarization and economic globalization, with infrastructure and energy serving as the foundation for mutually beneficial cooperation, expanding to strategic sectors including new energy, manufacturing, telecommunications, and finance. The comprehensive strategic partnership between China and Saudi Arabia is expected to deepen and develop through comprehensive integration.
Guotai Haitong Securities' main viewpoints are as follows:
**Macroeconomic Analysis and Regulation**: In recent years, Saudi Arabia's economic vitality has improved, with non-oil economy contribution steadily rising to over 70%. Non-oil economic growth primarily stems from private sector expansion, key sector upgrades, and accelerated growth momentum in emerging industries. Saudi Arabia is gradually transitioning from export-driven to domestic demand-driven growth, with increased contributions from investment and consumption. In terms of income structure, operating surplus remains at high levels, with capital-intensive sectors still dominant. Macroeconomic indicators continue to improve, and demographic dividends contain strong development momentum.
In recent years, benefiting from the "buffer effect" of the non-oil economy, Saudi Arabia's inflation sensitivity to crude oil price fluctuations has declined. The unemployment rate has dropped to historic lows. Saudi Arabia's labor market structure contains strong development momentum: a young population age structure, rising female employment, high education levels, expanding foreign population, and high labor participation rates provide Saudi Arabia with significant demographic development dividends.
The macroeconomic regulation mechanism features robust counter-cyclical adjustments, supporting medium-term economic structural transformation. Oil contributes 60% of fiscal revenue, while non-oil contribution has increased. Foreign exchange reserves remain relatively stable, and capital markets possess strong liquidity and openness. Meanwhile, the Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF) continues to evolve its functions, becoming an important tool for guiding economic structural transformation and leveraging capital market expansion.
**Middle East Regional Position and Geographical Influence**: The Middle East region is strategically positioned at the intersection of Asia, Africa, and Europe, traditionally relying on oil as its pillar industry due to advantageous geographical location and resource endowments. Saudi Arabia has long played a dual role as both an economic engine and a stabilizing force for regional development in the Middle East, playing a crucial role in stabilizing international oil prices and responding to sudden supply-demand fluctuations, while further promoting factor mobility and regional coordinated development.
Since the introduction of "Vision 2030," Saudi Arabia has leveraged its major power multilateral geopolitical balance strategy, resource allocation, and policy guidance to aggregate capital, technology, and high-end talent, continuously enhancing its radiating influence in the Middle East region. Additionally, Saudi Arabia possesses a promising labor market structure and gradually improving infrastructure levels, digitalization coverage, and reformative social systems, all providing a solid foundation for medium- to long-term economic development and industrial structural transformation.
**Political Landscape and Geopolitical Trends**: Global multipolarization benefits China-Saudi relations and deepens cooperation. In recent years, Saudi Arabia has promoted "moderate Islam" reforms, easing internal and external political hostility and disagreements. Global energy competition pressure and frequent regional conflicts provide historic opportunities for the Middle East region to move from confrontation toward mutually beneficial cooperation.
US-Saudi relations have long been the main axis of Saudi foreign policy, building bilateral cooperation foundations on the traditional "oil for security" model. However, current US-Saudi relations have evolved into complex games around development strategies and national interests. "Vision 2030" has risen to become the absolute core of Saudi national strategy, gradually transcending dependence on traditional geopolitical security protection.
In the medium term, Saudi Arabia's diplomatic relations with the United States may still seek balance between mutual benefit and conflict, but stability may depend more on both parties' goal alignment regarding "Vision 2030" and "MAGA" concepts, as well as Saudi Arabia's strategic determination in global multipolar competition and ability to reconcile geopolitical interests.
China-Saudi relations have warmed amid global multipolarization and economic globalization, with infrastructure and energy serving as the foundation for mutually beneficial cooperation, expanding to strategic sectors including new energy, manufacturing, telecommunications, and finance. The comprehensive strategic partnership between China and Saudi Arabia is expected to deepen and develop through comprehensive integration.
**Saudi Industrial Structural Transformation**: Under the promotion of "Vision 2030," Saudi Arabia's manufacturing, consumption, and medium-to-high technology industries have accelerated development in recent years. The economy shows trends of accelerated new and old momentum switching and steady recovery in market and business environments. Additionally, substantial breakthroughs and progress have been achieved in areas including digital economy, green energy, high-end manufacturing, and cultural tourism.
With a favorable business environment and openness, Saudi Arabia has attracted foreign direct investment in recent years, with FDI clustering effects increasingly prominent. Foreign investment stock foundations in manufacturing, construction, wholesale and retail, transportation and warehousing, finance and insurance sectors continue to thicken, with manufacturing investment proportions significantly increasing in recent years, presenting high investment potential and space for the future.
**Risk Warnings**: High volatility in international oil prices triggering fiscal contraction; internal religious and political changes in Saudi Arabia; escalation and spread of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East region; unexpected deterioration in geopolitical relations between global powers and Saudi Arabia.