Palantir Technologies is set to report its latest quarterly results after the market closes, with shares trading at $122.26 ahead of the release. The options market is pricing in exceptionally elevated post-earnings volatility, while a series of unusually large options trades suggests institutional investors are positioning around a key trading range.
Earnings Expectations: Wall Street expects Palantir to maintain its strong growth trajectory this quarter. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) are projected to reach $0.35, representing 152.2% year-over-year growth, while revenue is expected to climb to $1.802 billion, up 91.7% from a year earlier. Last quarter, the company exceeded consensus estimates by 18.3% on adjusted EPS and 6.1% on revenue, setting a high bar for another upside surprise.
Options Market Signals
Earnings remain the primary catalyst driving options pricing. As of this week, implied volatility (IV) for near-term weekly options expiring after the earnings release has surged to 105.01%, placing it in the 91st percentile of its historical range. With an IV-to-historical volatility (HV) ratio of 1.56, options are pricing in a significantly larger move than the stock has historically exhibited.
Based on current options pricing, the market is implying an approximately ±11% move in Palantir's shares during earnings week. That translates into an expected post-earnings trading range of roughly $109.54 to $136.58, underscoring expectations for a sharp move in either direction following the results.
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Large Trades
A PUT sale was the largest displayed trade, with 1,500 contracts of the September 18, 2026 $120.00 put sold while PLTR was referenced at $123.06. That strike sat out of the money at the time, making this a moderately bullish income-oriented trade that benefits if the stock stays above $120.00 into expiration. By selling downside premium below the current share price, the trader appears willing to take on assignment risk at a lower effective entry level while monetizing elevated downside demand, which is typically a constructive signal rather than an outright bearish one.
A calendar-style CALL combination was the other major displayed trade, structured as a four-leg spread using short August 7, 2026 $124.00 calls, long August 7, 2026 $129.00 calls, short July 31, 2026 $127.00 calls, and short July 31, 2026 $131.00 calls, all out of the money. Based on the provided legs, this strategy carried a net premium received of $0.25 million, making it a net-credit position. The structure points to a volatility and timing-focused call spread/calendar expression rather than a simple outright bullish bet: the trader collected premium from the nearer-dated short calls and partially financed the longer-dated vertical, suggesting an objective of income generation with controlled upside exposure, likely anticipating bounded upside or a gradual move rather than an immediate breakout far above the low-130s.
A separate block trade also saw the outright sale of 3,136 Aug. 7 $130 call contracts, with total premium reaching approximately $1.34 million, further reinforcing the $130 strike as a key area of overhead resistance.
Strategy Reference
Traders seeking a low assignment probability on the put side could consider selling the September 18, 2026 $110.00 put to capture elevated premium while maintaining a deeper margin of safety. For those unwilling to post heavy margin, a bear call spread such as selling the August 7, 2026 $124.00 call and buying the $129.00 call aligns with the large-trade sentiment of capped upside.