Morning Agricultural Market Briefing for August 21

Deep News
Aug 21

Soybean and protein meal futures saw continued gains on Thursday, with prices climbing alongside rising import costs. However, gains in the No. 1 soybean contract appeared to lose momentum as it approached key resistance levels, prompting profit-taking by long investors. On the international front, CBOT soybeans initially rallied but later retreated, despite robust demand. A crop tour by Pro Farmer across the U.S. Midwest raised concerns about soybean yields, as pod counts in Illinois and Iowa exceeded average levels, while other states reported counts falling short of expectations. Additionally, the weekly export sales report confirmed sales of 150,000 tonnes of soybeans to unknown destinations, with total weekly net sales reaching 1.723 million tonnes. The market is now awaiting the release of the crop tour results, with near-term and deferred contracts remaining in a tug-of-war as investors monitor capital flows.

In the edible oils sector, BMD palm oil advanced on Thursday, supported by concerns over El Ni帽o-induced dry weather, which had previously driven prices higher alongside rising crude oil values and expectations of lower U.S. soybean yields. Shipping data indicated that Malaysian palm oil exports for August 1-20 fell between 13.2% and 5.5% month-on-month, while high-frequency data pointed to a decline in production during the same period. With both output and exports easing, market expectations for August inventory pressure have diminished. Domestically, edible oil prices remained firm, with the broader commodity complex rallying as investor sentiment turned bullish. The soybean sector led gains on expectations that U.S. soybean yields may disappoint and amid reinforced forecasts of reduced domestic soybean production. As the weekend approaches, attention is focused on capital flows, with the market likely to maintain a near-term weak versus deferred strong pattern. Investors are also monitoring the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and consumption trends for edible oils.

For hog futures, the main 2611 contract dipped during Thursday's session before rebounding in the afternoon, closing with a long lower shadow and forming a doji pattern. Cash prices eased, with the national average price falling by 0.1 yuan per kilogram to 11.24 yuan per kilogram, according to Zhuochuang data. In Henan, the benchmark delivery region, prices slipped 0.06 yuan to 11.4 yuan per kilogram, while Guangdong remained flat and declines were seen in Sichuan, Liaoning, and Shandong. As farmers increased slaughter volumes but demand stayed limited, the market turned to oversupply, pushing down prices across multiple provinces. With ample overall supply, cash prices have reversed from earlier gains, while futures stabilized following the previous session's pullback. Market watchers are now focusing on cash price movements and shifts in sentiment.

Egg futures rebounded on Thursday, with the main 2610 contract climbing steadily during the session before easing slightly at the close, ending up 1.76% at 3,880 yuan per 500 kilograms. Cash egg prices rose marginally, with the national average up 0.02 yuan to 5.15 yuan per jin, according to Zhuochuang. In producing regions, Ningjin's powdered shell eggs were quoted at 5 yuan per jin, while Heishan's brown eggs held at 4.9 yuan. In consuming regions, prices were mostly stable, with Puxi and Guangzhou both at 5.35 yuan per jin for brown eggs. Traders are largely purchasing on an as-needed basis, and with the market entering peak demand season, cash prices have paused their gains, while futures continue to trade in a wide range. The focus remains on how demand shifts affect cash prices and how market sentiment evolves.

Corn futures closed with a slight loss on Thursday, following a session of consolidation. The main 2611 contract had risen earlier in the week on increased open interest, tracking gains in the broader commodity complex. The agricultural products sector has seen renewed interest, with El Ni帽o fueling output reduction expectations and driving a rebound in prices across several commodities. In the northeast, corn shipments remain slow, with subdued trading activity and no significant price adjustments. Futures prices saw notable gains on Tuesday night, prompting northern port purchase prices to follow suit on Wednesday. In North China, corn prices were broadly stable, with only minor adjustments. On the supply side, trade inventories remain higher than last year, and with spring corn expected to enter the market, traders are staging shipments based on mill price schedules. Downstream buyers are purchasing on a need-only basis, and while deep processing operations have picked up, the increase is insufficient to support price gains. In the consuming regions, corn prices are holding at low, stable levels with no clear directional driver, as traders offer concessions to close deals and feed mills maintain low-to-mid inventory levels without active stockpiling. Looking ahead, the bullish August USDA report has lifted U.S. corn and wheat futures, but domestic grain markets face ample substitute supplies. The weighted corn contract saw open interest first decline and then rise, with near-term attention likely to remain on the impact of El Ni帽o weather on the agricultural sector.

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