Abstract

Alamos will report fourth-quarter fiscal results on February 18, 2026 Post Market. The preview highlights stronger top-line momentum and improving profitability trends, with consensus tilting toward upside given recent analyst rating actions and the company’s execution across core mines.

Market Forecast

Based on the company’s latest guidance framework and compiled expectations, Alamos’s current-quarter revenue is forecast at $572.09 million, with year-over-year growth of 47.24%. The model points to continued margin strength, with adjusted EPS estimated at $0.52 and year-over-year growth of 111.93%. Further margin detail and net profit guidance are not disclosed in the forecast dataset; however, the revenue mix indicates solid contribution from core assets. Island Gold, Mulatos, and Young-Davidson remain the main business pillars; Island Gold is singled out as the most promising segment, supported by scale and grade improvements, with segment revenue recently benchmarked at $213.00 million and favorable year-over-year momentum.

Last Quarter Review

Alamos’s preceding quarter delivered resilient profitability and strong mine-level execution: revenue was $462.30 million, gross profit margin stood at 69.26%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company was $276.00 million, net profit margin reached 59.77%, and adjusted EPS was $0.37 with year-over-year growth of 94.74%. Quarter-on-quarter net profit growth accelerated by 73.34% on improved operating throughput and gold price tailwinds. For the main business breakdown, Island Gold contributed $213.00 million, Mulatos contributed $130.80 million, and Young-Davidson contributed $130.00 million, while company/other recorded a negative $11.50 million.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Main Business: Island Gold, Mulatos, and Young-Davidson

The core of Alamos’s earnings power this quarter remains anchored in the trio of Island Gold, Mulatos, and Young-Davidson mines. Island Gold has emerged as the operational pace-setter, with recent revenue of $213.00 million reflecting strong grades and consistent mill performance; this asset’s underground expansion and development sequencing continue to underpin production stability. Mulatos, at $130.80 million, has shown durable recovery dynamics with leach pad performance and stripping schedules balancing unit cost variability, while sustaining capital investments have aimed at supporting throughput. Young-Davidson, contributing $130.00 million, benefits from stable long-hole stoping and good availabilities on the hoisting system, which tends to translate to predictable ounces and a dependable cost curve. Across these sites, the maintenance regimes and planned development work appear aligned with the revenue forecast, indicating that the operational base is sufficiently robust to support a near-50% year-over-year revenue uplift in the current quarter.

In the revenue forecast of $572.09 million, the distribution among the three mines is likely to track their recent shares unless grade or sequencing effects shift contributions. The gross profit margin backdrop from last quarter at 69.26% provides a favorable starting point, and with gold prices still supportive, there is room for a modest margin carryover provided cost inflation is managed. Changes in strip ratios, energy inputs, and labor productivity will be key determinants of quarter outcome; the company’s demonstrated ability to deliver a 59.77% net profit margin last quarter suggests tight cost control and effective hedging or procurement strategies. Any unplanned downtime or geotechnical constraints would be the primary operational risks that could offset the margin trajectory implied by the EPS estimate.

Most Promising Segment: Island Gold

Island Gold is positioned as the most promising contributor this quarter given its scale, grade profile, and ongoing development program. The recent $213.00 million revenue print signals robust mine execution and a favorable orebody segment being accessed; this provides a cushion against volatility in other operations. As development headings open up and stopes are sequenced to optimize grade, Island Gold can drive incremental ounces without disproportionate cost additions, which is vital in maintaining the attractive gross margin profile observed last quarter. The mine’s underground infrastructure, including ventilation and hoisting capacity, has been calibrated to handle sustained higher throughput, which, when combined with stable metallurgical recoveries, supports the earnings estimate trajectory.

The year-over-year revenue uplift implied in the consolidated forecast suggests Island Gold will be the swing factor on aggregated margins. If grades track to plan, the mine can both anchor the revenue line and set the pace for consolidated adjusted EPS improvement. Monitoring unit costs—particularly energy and consumables—and maintaining development advance rates will be critical to translating operational strength into reported margin expansion. With expected contribution holding at or above the recent $213.00 million level, Island Gold remains the mine most likely to exceed internal targets and provide upside surprise to consensus on the EPS line.

Key Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

Gold price levels and volatility remain the primary macro driver of Alamos’s share performance in the reporting window. A supportive gold price typically expands realized pricing and elevates margin capture across all mines; conversely, any sharp downdraft could pressure the EPS estimate of $0.52 and the revenue outlook of $572.09 million. Operational execution—particularly at Island Gold—serves as the principal micro driver; sustained grade control, low dilution, and minimal downtime are prerequisites for preserving the high gross margin seen last quarter. Cost inflation in fuel, explosives, and labor represents a persistent headwind, but the previous quarter’s 59.77% net profit margin indicates that Alamos has been successful in compressing unit costs and maintaining efficiency.

The forecasted 47.24% year-over-year revenue growth sets expectations for a strong print; the risk-reward near the release will be framed by whether actual volumes and grades meet plan. Any updates to life-of-mine plans, capital allocation, or exploration drilling results can also influence sentiment, as they recalibrate the multi-year production and cost base. Finally, sensitivity to foreign exchange—given operations and cost structures spanning multiple jurisdictions—could affect reported margins; disciplined currency management can mitigate this, thereby protecting the EPS guidance characterization reflected in the current-quarter forecast.

Analyst Opinions

Institutional views on Alamos are predominantly bullish within the covered period. Multiple well-known brokers reaffirmed Buy ratings, signaling confidence in the operational trajectory and earnings quality. Stifel Nicolaus maintained a Buy rating with a C$65.00 target, highlighting continued upside potential as production and margins remain aligned with plan. National Bank reiterated Buy with a C$64.00 target, noting execution strength and a favorable mine plan mix. Scotiabank maintained Buy with a $39.00 target, citing supportive commodity pricing and the company’s ability to sustain consolidated margin levels. RBC Capital’s Michael Siperco also maintained Buy with a $44.00 target. Taken together, the bullish ratio dominates against neutral or mixed tones, with the majority of recent actionable views endorsing a constructive stance.

The consensus underpinning these opinions centers on Alamos’s capacity to translate operational stability into earnings leverage. Analysts point to the prior quarter’s 69.26% gross margin and 59.77% net profit margin as evidence of a resilient cost structure poised to harness elevated gold prices. The forecast for current-quarter adjusted EPS at $0.52, coupled with the 47.24% revenue growth outlook, anchors expectations for another solid delivery. Upside risks include better-than-expected ounces from Island Gold and stable contributions from Mulatos and Young-Davidson. Downside scenarios revolve around grade variability, temporary operational bottlenecks, and commodity price swings. On balance, the majority Buy stance reflects an assessment that Alamos’s mine portfolio and cost discipline can meet or exceed forecast ranges, supporting constructive positioning into the earnings event on February 18, 2026 Post Market.