On July 28, gold market analysis: During Tuesday's Asian session, gold hit a low of $4,034, which aligns precisely with the support level of the 4-hour SAR indicator, making it a clear reference point. If this level holds, expect a rebound to repair technical indicators. If it breaks downward, follow the trend to look for continuation, and consider a light short position after the breakout.
The current mild range-bound consolidation focuses on the $4,034-$4,065 zone, with the same strategy: follow whichever side breaks. On an upside breakout, resistance is seen at $4,082, $4,100, and $4,115. On a downside breakout, watch for support at $4,021, $4,000, and $3,970 sequentially.
Due to the strong rally in the US Dollar Index, gold's consolidation range has clearly shifted lower. The search for a bottom, in my view, is not yet fully complete. The Asian and European session rebound is likely to test the 1-hour mid-Bollinger band at $4,065-$4,072 before another decline occurs. The initial weekly strategy remains unchanged: continue to sell on rallies, and only consider bullish long positions at lower levels later in the week.
Gold Strategy: Current spot price is $4,050. 1. Sell at $4,065, add to short at $4,072, stop loss at $4,078, targets $4,050-$4,034, break below lookout for $4,022. 2. If $4,034 breaks, short sell, conservative traders can wait for a 5-point rebound to enter, default 6-point stop loss, targets $4,022-$4,005. 3. Buy at $4,001, stop loss at $3,995, targets $4,015-$4,030. (Place buy orders at $3,978 and $3,968, stop loss at $3,955, targets $4,030-$4,100+).
Crude Oil Market Analysis: Oil price movements are more straightforward than gold. Once a clear direction emerges, follow the trend. I believe that those who followed my analysis yesterday and shorted the market have profited. On the chart, the weekly K-line is controlled by a bearish harami pattern, and coupled with two consecutive daily bearish candles, I believe this is just the beginning of the decline, far from the bottom. In the 1-hour chart, the SAR indicator is resistance at $82.3. As long as the rebound does not break above this level, selling short is always an option.
The first visible support level is the 4-hour lower Bollinger band at $79.5, followed by the weekly MA5 support at $78.5, with a lower reference support at $76.2. My direct reason for a bearish view is the recent turn of the daily SAR indicator. Remember, the daily Bollinger lower band is at $67.1. As long as the daily Z-shaped indicator does not show a bottom signal, I will maintain a strategy of selling on rallies. For this week's low forecast, I reference the support point at $72.5, where the weekly MA120 and MA60 converge. This is likely where a daily bottom signal will appear, and if it reaches that level, I will go long.
Today's resistance is seen at $82.3-$84.1, with support at $79.5-$78.5. The recommended operation is to sell on rallies. Crude Oil Strategy: Current spot price is $81. 1. Buy at the initial touch of $79.5, stop loss at $78.9, targets $81-$81.8. 2. Sell at $82.1 on a rebound, stop loss at $82.8, targets $81-$80-$78, hold if it breaks lower. 3. Conservative: sell at $83.8-$84.1, stop loss at $85, targets $82-$80. Low-level buy at $78.5-$78, stop loss at $77.5, targets $80-$82.