CITIC SEC's research team released a report on February 25th, indicating that consumption during the Spring Festival continued to show divergent trends, aligning with overall expectations. Sectors such as hotels, scenic spots, and premium baijiu demonstrated relatively strong performance, while retail and box office revenues were generally moderate, partly affected by travel diversion. The report maintains the view that consumption is in a phase of self-recovery and stabilization with differentiation. Short-term beta opportunities in the broader consumption sector may depend on potential fiscal stimulus policies.

The Spring Festival period reflected characteristics seen over the past two to three years: consumer brand recognition has significantly increased, with premium baijiu brands such as Moutai, Wuliangye, and Fenjiu noticeably outperforming mid-to-lower tier brands. Additionally, annual baijiu sales remain highly concentrated during the Spring Festival peak season. Due to shifts in demand from tobacco and liquor stores, distributors, and consumers, pre-holiday demand was largely fulfilled, while demand during the festival remained stable and focused on products priced below 300 RMB. A solid Spring Festival performance forms the foundation for stable sales throughout the year.

Considering that the baijiu industry has undergone multiple years of adjustment and is near the bottom of a long-term cycle, low market expectations and relatively light positioning mean that any marginal improvement is likely to significantly boost investor sentiment. The report suggests that while beta recovery opportunities exist in the baijiu sector, the ongoing and intensifying divergence trend warrants a strategic focus on increasing holdings in leading brands.

CITIC SEC anticipates that 2026 will be a pivotal year for establishing an inflection point in the consumption sector's recovery. Given the current weak macroeconomic environment, the self-recovery of consumption sentiment is expected to take time. Short-term beta opportunities may hinge on the possibility of fiscal stimulus measures. The report recommends a "barbell strategy" for investment allocation: on one end, targeting service consumption to capture policy flexibility and wealth effect transmission; on the other end, building defensive positions with high-dividend assets while closely monitoring opportunities in the catering supply chain driven by a rebound in CPI.