Nvidia prepares to release its second-quarter fiscal 2026 results post-market close on Aug 27, 2025.

Previous Quarter Review

Sales in the first quarter, which ended April 27, rose 69% to $44.1 billion. That compared with an average estimate of $43.3 billion.

That growth would be enviable for most chipmakers, though it was the smallest percentage gain in two years. Profit was 96 cents a share, minus certain items. Wall Street was looking for 93 cents.

The data center unit, a division that’s larger by itself than all of Nvidia’s nearest rivals combined, had sales of $39.1 billion. That was just shy of the average estimate of $39.2 billion. Gaming-related sales — once Nvidia’s main business — were $3.8 billion. Analysts projected $2.85 billion on average. Automotive was $567 million.

Q2 2026 earnings expectations

Nvidia's Q2 revenue is expected to be $46.136 billion, adjusted net income is $24.639 billion, and adjusted EPS is $1.009, according to Bloomberg's consistent expectations. NVIDIA’s guidance suggests revenue between $44.1 billion and $45.9 billion.

Nvidia's fiscal 2Q results will likely be in line with expectations or modestly ahead, supported by GB200 deployments, networking strength and initial GB300 orders. The approval to resume H20 exports to China is a tailwind, though the national government's guidance to avoid the chip and the time needed to restart production may limit near-term gains. Estimates for 3Q still largely exclude China, suggesting potential upside as shipments ramp up toward 4Q. Commentary on customer readiness and the cadence of the GB300 transition will be key for 2H revenue visibility.

Gross-margin trajectory remains a focal point, with improving Blackwell yields and mix supporting Nvidia’s goal of exiting the year in the mid-70% range. Hyperscalers, sovereign AI projects and Tier-2 clouds show robust demand, indicating continued growth.

Technology leadership drives aggressive roadmap

NVIDIA maintains its technological edge through a clear, aggressive product pipeline. The latest Blackwell chips power the most demanding AI workloads, with 2025 production sold out months in advance. Blackwell Ultra graphics processing units (GPUs) enter production in the second half of 2025.

The company has unveiled its Rubin architecture for 2026, promising significant performance improvements, followed by Rubin Ultra superchips in 2027. This roadmap demonstrates NVIDIA’s commitment to maintaining a competitive advantage.

Central to NVIDIA’s strategy is the 'AI Factory' concept, integrated systems where raw data enters and processed intelligence emerges. The company provides blueprints and tools enabling organisations and governments to build bespoke, powerful AI systems.

Strategic partnerships fuel expansion

NVIDIA announced major 2025 collaborations, reinforcing ecosystem dominance across multiple sectors. Regional AI ecosystems include partnerships with governments and corporations to develop AI capabilities. Notable examples include collaboration with Foxconn and Taiwan's government for a supercomputer factory powered by 10,000 Blackwell GPUs, plus significant deals across Europe and the Middle East, including 18,000 GB300 Blackwell chips for Saudi Arabia's Humain.

In automotive, NVIDIA’s DRIVE platform will power next-generation self-driving features for Toyota and Aurora/Continental vehicles. Healthcare partnerships with IQVIA, Illumina, and Mayo Clinic accelerate drug discovery, genomic research, and digital pathology using AI and accelerated computing platforms.

US government revenue-sharing agreement on China sales

A significant development emerged in August 2025 where NVIDIA and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) agreed to share 15% of revenues from specific AI chip sales to China in exchange for export licences. This arrangement allows NVIDIA to resume H20 AI chip sales designed for the Chinese market to comply with earlier export controls.

The financial impact warrants attention. While China represents 13% of NVIDIA's revenue by customer billing location in FY 2025, actual contribution may be higher due to trans-shipment orders. Assuming restriction removal doubles China sales while other regions remain flat, this could boost NVIDIA’s revenue by over 10%.

The benefits are expected to outweigh the 15% government levy, which could reduce total revenue by approximately 3% if China’s share of sales rises to 25%.

Potential headwinds

Despite strong momentum, challenges persist. Highly efficient AI models from competitors like China's DeepSeek pose long-term threats to advanced chips demand. Ongoing US-China geopolitical tensions create uncertainty, while the latest revenue-sharing arrangement faces potential legal challenges.

Analyst's opinions

Wall Street sentiment has marginally deteriorated since the previous earnings, with 58 of 65 analysts assigning 'buy' or 'strong buy' ratings according to LSEG data, and one 'sell' recommendation. This reflects valuation concerns, with NVIDIA trading at 33 times forward price-to-earnings (P/E).

However, average price targets improved from $163 post-Q1 to $191 currently, adjusting for the recent rally and suggesting approximately 9% upside from current levels.