U.S. markets staged a dramatic "plunge-and-rebound" session with tech stocks spearheading the recovery, powering major indices back above their quarterly moving average support. Earlier volatility triggered by Nvidia's earnings gave way to a rally led by Google and Broadcom, as market enthusiasm over Google's Gemini 3.0 AI capabilities—hailed as the "real winner"—propelled significant share price gains.

While Gemini 3.0 demonstrates impressive technical prowess, the market's fickle sentiment reveals inherent irrationality: exuberant praise during rallies contrasts sharply with indifference during selloffs. Technically, indices are now retesting the quarterly moving average after breaking below it. Historical patterns suggest such retests often precede renewed declines, though current rebound momentum shows no definitive reversal signals yet. The retest depth remains unpredictable—monitoring trading volume shifts may provide clues.

Caution prevails as the core market narrative still hinges on Fed rate-cut expectations. With indices hovering near elevated levels and volatility expanding, maintaining risk awareness is prudent. Today's delayed September retail sales and PPI releases—two months outdated—are unlikely to alter market trajectories barring extreme deviations. Until clear reversal signals emerge, patience outweighs chasing rallies.

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