Market Highlights and Key Data: 1. Light crude oil futures for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by 67 cents to settle at $64.63 per barrel, marking a 1.05% increase. Brent crude futures for April delivery climbed 60 cents to close at $69.40 per barrel, up 0.87%. The benchmark SC crude oil contract gained 0.82%, ending at 480 yuan per barrel. 2. On February 11, India instructed its state-owned refiners to evaluate purchasing more crude oil from the United States and Venezuela. This directive follows the Trump administration's assertion that a bilateral trade agreement includes India's commitment to halt imports of Russian crude. Refinery executives familiar with the matter indicated that refiners have been urged to prioritize US crude when sourcing from spot markets via tenders. They added that similar requests were made for Venezuelan crude, though such purchases would be negotiated privately with traders. India's oil procurement strategies have been under close scrutiny since the trade agreement announcement, though New Delhi has not publicly responded. Indian officials have consistently emphasized efforts to diversify energy sources, with energy security remaining a top priority. However, Indian refiners have limited capacity to absorb additional volumes from the US and Venezuela. 3. On February 11, the US government issued a general license permitting oilfield service companies to operate in Venezuela. This move represents a further step by the Trump administration to ease sanctions and support the rebuilding of the country's oil infrastructure. According to a Tuesday statement, the license authorizes US companies to engage in oil and gas exploration, development, and production under specific limited conditions. In January, the US had issued a broader license allowing extensive crude-related activities, including exports, transportation, refining, and trading. The latest license covers geological mapping, reservoir analysis, and other tasks essential for restarting oil production. However, it does not permit the establishment of new joint ventures in Venezuela. The statement clarified that US entities must submit detailed plans to the State and Energy Departments before commencing any work in the country.

Investment Rationale: India's shift away from Russian crude toward increased purchases from the US and Venezuela is expected to intensify pressure on Russian oil absorption. With widening discounts and reduced procurement volumes, Russia's energy-related fiscal revenues are projected to decline significantly this year. While independent Chinese refiners are absorbing more Russian oil, their capacity is constrained by import quotas and competition with Iranian crude. Over time, Russia's bargaining power in Ukraine negotiations is gradually diminishing.

Strategy: Oil prices are anticipated to fluctuate within a range in the near term, with geopolitical risks requiring vigilance during holidays. A medium-term short position is recommended.

Risks: Downside risks: Sanctioned oil transitioning to compliant supply; macroeconomic black swan events. Upside risks: Tightening supply of sanctioned oil (from Russia, Iran, Venezuela); large-scale supply disruptions due to Middle East conflicts.