Global financial markets maintained a cautious tone on Thursday, extending recent trends. Although the U.S. dollar index saw a slight rebound in the previous session, it failed to reverse the overall pressure experienced this week. Spot gold held steady within a consolidation range just below its all-time highs, indicating a delicate balance between bullish and bearish forces. Concurrently, the entire U.S. Treasury yield curve shifted lower, with the 10-year yield approaching the key technical level of 4.04%, becoming a core variable driving current market pricing. This analysis will project market movements over the next 2-3 trading days from two distinct perspectives: the impact of Treasury yield movements on the dollar, and the transmission mechanism of bond market risk aversion to the gold market.
Observing the technical structure of the dollar index's 240-minute K-line chart, the current price is trading below the Bollinger Band midline, suggesting weak short-term momentum. Notably, after a prior period of narrowing, the Bollinger Bands have expanded again, with the upper band pointing to a specific level and the lower band extending to another, typically indicating a significant return of volatility. Regarding the MACD indicator, the DIFF and DEA lines remain in a bearish crossover state, but the negative histogram has been contracting consecutively, indicating that downward selling momentum is waning and the market may face a short-term directional decision.
The core variable influencing the dollar's trajectory is shifting from单纯的 interest rate expectations to the supply-demand structure of the U.S. Treasury market. Yesterday's auction of $70 billion in 5-year notes by the U.S. Treasury resulted in a high yield that showed a slight "tail" compared to the market yield at the bidding deadline. Furthermore, the combined share awarded to indirect and direct bidders fell to its lowest level since a specific period. This weak auction result suggests that, amid uncertainty over tariff policies and before global trade dynamics become clear, foreign institutions and domestic long-term funds are adopting a cautious stance toward new Treasury positions. Typically, weak primary market demand dampens secondary market sentiment, thereby limiting the downside for Treasury yields. However, the market is currently displaying an alternative logic where "bad news is good news" – marginally weaker economic data and geopolitical risks are instead strengthening safe-haven buying, pushing the 10-year yield toward the lower end of its recent range near 4.04%.
The decline in Treasury yields directly undermines the dollar's interest rate advantage. Particularly when key maturities along the yield curve face sustained pressure, the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets for cross-border capital marginally decreases. Analysts note that while recent comments from Federal Reserve officials have been mixed, the market is clearly paying closer attention to whether testimony from a specific official might indirectly reveal assessments of the economic outlook. If the 10-year yield effectively breaks below a key support level, the dollar index is likely to test a lower psychological barrier.
Spot gold found buying interest after pulling back to a level near $5,173 per ounce. The 240-minute chart shows the price oscillating around the Bollinger Band midline. Although the MACD indicator remains in negative territory, the fast DIFF line has begun to flatten, showing clear signs of waning bearish momentum. The corrective pressure established from the prior high is being digested over time, while a key support level provides a safety net for medium-term bulls.
Differing from conventional analysis focused on the dollar-gold negative correlation, gold's current pricing logic is more influenced by the transmission of risk aversion from the bond market. Recent news commentary explicitly stated that despite flat yields, buying interest in Treasuries persists due to uncertainties ranging from tariffs to issues concerning a specific country. This "uncertainty-driven buying" is spilling over into the gold market. On one hand, lower real yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold. On the other hand, specific geopolitical tensions are causing risk premiums to be repriced into gold. An analyst from a Swiss bank stated directly that ongoing tensions between specific nations, coupled with global economic uncertainty triggered by tariff policies, serve as bullish catalysts for gold.
Furthermore, while the European Central Bank's recent reserve adjustment actions were not directly targeted at gold, the signals they release are noteworthy. The ECB sold some U.S. dollar assets and allocated the proceeds into another currency. Although officially described as a "standard rebalancing," this action occurred before market turbulence induced by tariff policies, objectively reflecting major central banks' reconsideration of concentration in dollar assets. Such marginal moves towards global "de-dollarization," coupled with reports of ongoing gold purchases by various central banks, collectively build the micro-foundation for a medium to long-term bull market in gold.
Early today, comments from the Bank of Japan Governor sent hawkish signals, suggesting policy decisions could be made based on incoming information. This initially pushed Japanese government bond yields higher and strengthened the yen. However, the market reaction was relatively contained, with the 10-year JGB yield rising only modestly, indicating investor skepticism about the BoJ's ability to genuinely tighten policy. For global bond markets, fluctuations in the yen and rising JGB yields have not yet posed a substantial shock. Pressure from Japanese institutional sellers on ultra-long-term bonds has eased due to accounting rule changes, while month-end duration extension needs continue to support long bonds. This suggests risks of capital outflows from Japan are controllable in the short term, and the core driver for the U.S. Treasury market will remain focused on domestic U.S. inflation data and auction results.
Projections for the next 2-3 trading days are as follows: The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is expected to trade mainly within a range between 4.02% and 4.07%. The range logic hinges on technical support and resistance levels corresponding to Bollinger Bands and recent price action. Key focuses include upcoming weekly unemployment claims data and the demand at an upcoming auction of 7-year notes. If claims data are lower than expected and auction demand is robust, yields could test the upper end of the range.
The U.S. dollar index is anticipated to fluctuate within a range defined by a key psychological and technical support level and a resistance level coinciding with an integer关口 and the Bollinger Band upper轨. If Treasury yields fail to break higher, the dollar index will struggle to strengthen independently. Spot gold is projected to move within a range between a support zone near the Bollinger Band lower轨 and a resistance level at the upper轨. If the 10-year yield declines further below a specific threshold or if geopolitical tensions escalate, gold prices could challenge the upper boundary of this range.
Overall, the market is in a phase of博弈 between a vacuum of major macro data and geopolitical events. The directional choice of Treasury yields will directly determine the short-term path for the dollar and gold, with the risk-aversion narrative clearly holding the upper hand in the current environment. Over the next 2-3 trading days, investors need to closely monitor marginal changes in U.S. employment data, indirect demand indicators from Treasury auctions, and real-time developments in specific international negotiations.