Abstract

Annaly Capital Management will report quarterly results on July 21, 2026, Post-Mkt; this preview compiles the latest model-based forecasts and recent commentary to frame revenue, margins, EPS and segment dynamics alongside the prevailing analyst stance.

Market Forecast

Consensus modeling points to revenue of 1.70 billion US dollars for the current quarter, up 30.06% year over year, with EPS around 0.75 and EBIT near 555.26 million US dollars; directional indicators suggest continued margin support, but no explicit forecast for gross profit margin or net profit margin is available from the tool. The company’s prior quarter baselines imply a resilient contribution from core interest income and fee-related items, with EPS tracking modest year-on-year expansion of 4.44%. Main business momentum is centered on Residential Credit and Mortgage Servicing Rights, where revenue scale leads the group and operating contribution remains the core stabilizer amid rate volatility. The most promising segment is Residential Credit at 268.21 million US dollars last quarter, supported by improving financing conditions and active securitization pipelines that could underpin sequential revenue improvement.

Last Quarter Review

Annaly Capital Management delivered revenue of 1.72 billion US dollars last quarter, with a gross profit margin of 95.44%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of 283.00 million US dollars, a net profit margin of 77.68%, and adjusted EPS of 0.76, up 5.56% year over year. A notable highlight was the revenue outperformance versus prior estimates, helped by stable asset yields and controlled funding costs that supported earnings quality. Main business highlights show Residential Credit revenue of 268.21 million US dollars and Mortgage Servicing Rights revenue of 96.34 million US dollars; Agency recorded a negative contribution, signaling continued repositioning of the portfolio toward higher-return credit exposures.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main revenue engine: Residential Credit

Residential Credit remains the principal revenue driver by scale and breadth of product. Model estimates imply a supportive backdrop for net interest income as spreads normalize on lower rate volatility, enabling improved execution in loan purchases and securitizations. Pipeline visibility appears adequate from agency-eligible flows and non-agency whole-loan acquisitions that can be financed and hedged more efficiently than last year. The key watch items this quarter are asset selection discipline and hedge effectiveness relative to spread and curve shifts, which will determine whether volume growth translates into EPS durability. Given its 268.21 million US dollars revenue last quarter, even moderate spread tightening could add incremental carry and bolster run-rate earnings relative to the prior quarter.

High-upside lever: Mortgage Servicing Rights

Mortgage Servicing Rights provided 96.34 million US dollars of revenue last quarter and remain a balancing lever against rate moves. MSR values are sensitive to prepayment expectations; with refinancing activity still subdued, amortization and hedging costs may be manageable, supporting stable to slightly positive revenue contribution. If the rate path trends toward gradual declines rather than abrupt cuts, MSR marks could remain orderly while origination-related fee flows stabilize, maintaining the hedge value of the MSR book. The most constructive setup for the quarter would be modest rate relief that aids credit spread sentiment without meaningfully eroding MSR economics, thereby improving overall earnings consistency.

Stock-price swing factor: Net interest margins and funding mix

The market’s focus is squarely on the interplay between asset yields, hedge costs, and the liability stack. Funding costs have eased from peak levels, but the timing and magnitude of any rate path shifts will drive quarter-to-quarter variability in net interest margin and earnings power. A favorable outcome entails steady to slightly lower repo and hedge costs alongside gradual spread tightening in mortgage assets, which would support the EPS trajectory around the 0.75 mark. Conversely, a disorderly curve move or spread widening could compress margins and elevate hedging expenses, limiting operating leverage in the quarter. Against this backdrop, disciplined leverage, active portfolio rotation, and liquidity cushions are likely to be the critical signals investors monitor into the print.

Analyst Opinions

Across the recent period, the majority of institutional commentary skews bullish, emphasizing stabilization in residential mortgage credit and improved earnings visibility as funding conditions ease; bearish views are in the minority and tend to focus on rate path uncertainty and spread volatility. Supportive voices point to the revenue estimate of 1.70 billion US dollars with 30.06% year-on-year growth and EPS near 0.75 as a sustainable near-term run rate, contingent on stable hedging dynamics. Notably, several widely followed analysts have highlighted the constructive setup for residential credit carry and the offsetting characteristics of the MSR portfolio, arguing that the company’s earnings cadence can remain resilient even if rate cuts progress more slowly than earlier expected. Pro-bull arguments also note last quarter’s revenue beat and positive adjusted EPS growth of 5.56% year over year as evidence of improved operational footing. The consensus bullish case is that incremental spread tightening and slightly lower funding costs can support EBIT around 555.26 million US dollars this quarter, keeping capital returns and book value stability on track, while risk controls around leverage and liquidity provide a cushion against adverse market swings.